PF
Jalen Johnson▼
ATL · PF
PPG
23.0
RPG
10.4
APG
8.0
L5 PPG
25.2
Last 5 GamesPTS
Season vs Last 5
Season Last 5
PPG+2.2
23.0
25.2
RPG-2.2
10.4
8.2
APG+1.0
8.0
9.0
UNDER 22.5 PTS
Last 5 games
1
Current Streak
1
Longest Streak
OVER
Streak Type
22.5
20
MIL
2026-03-04
2026-03-04 vs MIL: 20 pts
35
PHI
2026-03-07
2026-03-07 vs PHI: 35 pts
27
DAL
2026-03-10
2026-03-10 vs DAL: 27 pts
21
BKN
2026-03-12
2026-03-12 vs BKN: 21 pts
23
MIL
2026-03-14
2026-03-14 vs MIL: 23 pts
Over 22.5
Under 22.5
Last 5 games
Prop Confidence
PTS
UNDER 22.5
68%
REB
UNDER 9.5
65%
AST
OVER 7.5
72%
PRA
UNDER 31.5
66%
vs ??? (H2H)12 games
PPG
9.0
RPG
5.0
APG
2.2
Defensive Matchup Profile
Top Defenders This Season
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominick Barlow | 4 | 36 | 33% | -15.9% | medium |
| Miles Bridges | 3 | 29 | 40% | -9.2% | medium |
| OG Anunoby | 3 | 24 | 40% | -15.9% | medium |
| Tobias Harris | 3 | 22 | 46% |
Johnson Faces Tough Magic Defense Despite Strong Recent Form
Jalen Johnson enters this home matchup averaging 25.2 PPG over his last 5 games with solid 9.0 APG, but faces a critical matchup problem: Paolo Banchero has allowed just 53 points across 38.8 minutes against Johnson in previous meetings, indicating strong defensive containment. Johnson's season averages of 23.0 PPG and 10.4 RPG are solid, but his recent trend is down (21.3 PPG in last 10 games), and his historical splits vs Orlando show concerning numbers at just 9.0 PPG over 12 games on 22.3 minutes. Magic's defense rates 113.91 with -0.326 scoring suppression, making this a genuine defensive test despite Johnson's improved play.
Stat Trends
PPG
25.2(↓ from 23.0)
RPG
8.2(↓ from 10.4)
APG
9.0(↑ from 8.0)
Key Matchup
Paolo Banchero's elite perimeter defense is the critical factor here. Across 38.8 minutes in previous matchups, Banchero has held Johnson to just 1.37 PPG allowed per game, representing significant defensive containment that should suppress Johnson's scoring despite his recent 25.2 PPG form.
Prop Analysis
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jalen Johnson▼ | Points | 22.5 | UNDER | 68%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 40% | 24 | ✗ |
Jalen Johnson▼ | Rebounds | 9.5 | UNDER | 65%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% | 15 | ✗ |
Jalen Johnson▼ | Assists | 7.5 | OVER | 72%HIGH | 1/2 | 80% | 13 | ✓ |
Jalen Johnson▼ | PRA | 31.5 | UNDER | 66%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 0% | 52 | ✗ |
ML Scout Analysis
3PM2UNDER33%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (9/20)4/1921%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼
3PA5UNDER34%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 4x7/1937%Confidence moved HIGH to MEDIUM▼
PRA41UNDER15%gbt_praWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 6x8/1942%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼
P+R32UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 5x8/1942%▼
P+A30UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 4x8/1942%▼
PTS21UNDER17%gbt_pointsAvoid (7/20)UNDER 4x9/1947%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼
REB10UNDER29%gbt_reboundsAvoid (7/20)OVER 4x8/1942%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼
AST8UNDER9%gbt_assistsAvoid (7/20)UNDER 4x8/1942%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼
R+A17.5UNDER0%gbt_raAvoid (7/20)UNDER 2x7/1937%▼
STL1UNDER14%gbt_stealsAvoid (6/20)UNDER 8x5/1926%Confidence moved HIGH to LOW▼
FTM3UNDER20%gbtAvoid (6/20)9/1947%▼
FTA4UNDER16%gbtAvoid (6/20)9/1947%▼
Featured Pick
Jalen Johnson
Assists OVER 7.5MEDIUM
Johnson's last 5-game average of 9.0 APG and season mean of 8.03 APG provide solid support. While offensive scoring may be limited by Banchero's defense, Johnson's role as a facilitator (7.3 APG in last 10) should remain reliable, making 7.5 a beatable threshold with home court advantage (8.38 home mean).
This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.