PF
Paolo Banchero▼
ORL · PF
PPG
22.3
RPG
8.6
APG
5.0
L5 PPG
25.6
Last 5 GamesPTS
Season vs Last 5
Season Last 5
PPG+3.3
22.3
25.6
RPG+0.6
8.6
9.2
APG0.0
5.0
5.0
OVER 28.5 PTS
Last 5 games
3
Current Streak
3
Longest Streak
UNDER
Streak Type
28.5
25
MIN
2026-03-07
2026-03-07 vs MIN: 25 pts
33
MIL
2026-03-08
2026-03-08 vs MIL: 33 pts
25
CLE
2026-03-11
2026-03-11 vs CLE: 25 pts
18
WAS
2026-03-12
2026-03-12 vs WAS: 18 pts
27
MIA
2026-03-14
2026-03-14 vs MIA: 27 pts
Over 28.5
Under 28.5
Last 5 games
Prop Confidence
PTS
OVER 28.5
72%
REB
OVER 9.5
68%
AST
UNDER 7.5
70%
PRA
OVER 25.5
75%
vs ??? (H2H)12 games
PPG
24.1
RPG
7.4
APG
4.5
Defensive Matchup Profile
Top Defenders This Season
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Johnson | 3 | 21 | 50% | +0.3% | medium |
| Miles Bridges | 3 | 18 | 50% | -9.1% | medium |
| Pascal Siakam | 3 | 18 | 59% | +4.1% | medium |
| Scottie Barnes | 3 | 18 | 50% |
Banchero Poised for Strong Performance Against Hawks' Porous Defense
Paolo Banchero is in excellent form, averaging 26.0 PPG over his last 10 games and 25.6 PPG over his last 5, significantly outpacing his 22.3 season average. Against Atlanta, he's averaged 24.1 PPG across 12 matchups and will face a Hawks defense allowing 116.63 points per 100 possessions with 30.3% scoring suppression—well below elite standards. Despite playing on the second night of a back-to-back, Banchero's away-game metrics are particularly strong (23.97 PPG away vs. 20.24 at home), and his 36+ minutes in recent games suggest heavy usage. The Hawks' key defender Jalen Johnson allows 29 PPG on 50% FG, indicating vulnerability to Banchero's scoring arsenal.
Stat Trends
PPG
25.6(↓ from 22.3)
RPG
9.2(↑ from 8.6)
APG
5.0(→ from 5.0)
Key Matchup
Jalen Johnson, the Hawks' primary wing defender, allows 29 PPG on 50% FG in 38+ minutes—a significant vulnerability. Atlanta's overall defense rates 116.63 PPE with minimal scoring suppression, making this an ideal matchup for Banchero's offensive aggression despite back-to-back fatigue.
Prop Analysis
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Paolo Banchero▼ | Points | 28.5 | OVER | 72%HIGH | 2/2 | 20% | 18 | ✗ |
Paolo Banchero▼ | Rebounds | 9.5 | OVER | 68%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 40% | 10 | ✓ |
Paolo Banchero▼ | Assists | 7.5 | UNDER | 70%HIGH | 2/2 | 100% | 3 | ✓ |
Paolo Banchero▼ | PRA | 25.5 | OVER | 75%HIGH | 1/2 | 100% | 31 | ✓ |
ML Scout Analysis
P+R32OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (13/20)OVER 2x11/2055%▼
PTS24UNDER9%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%▼
FTA8.5OVER1%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x10/2050%▼
PRA39.5UNDER38%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼
AST5.5UNDER6%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%▼
3PA3.5UNDER46%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 5x10/2050%▼
REB8UNDER8%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%▼
P+A29UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%▼
FTM7UNDER21%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 2x8/2040%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼
R+A13UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)9/2045%▼
3PM1UNDER43%gbt_three_pmAvoid (7/20)UNDER 7x5/2025%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼
Featured Pick
Paolo Banchero
Points OVER 28.5MEDIUM
Banchero's last 10-game average of 26.0 PPG and recent 25.6 PPG (last 5) show elevated scoring despite a down trend label. His away-game average of 23.97 PPG falls short of 28.5, but Hawks allow 116.63 PPE and Jalen Johnson surrenders 29 PPG—creating favorable offensive conditions. Back-to-back status introduces some risk, but usage rates in recent games (36+ MPG) suggest high volume opportunity.
This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.