SG
Jaylen Brown—
BOS · SG
PPG
28.2
RPG
7.1
APG
5.1
L5 PPG
21.0
Last 5 GamesPTS
Season vs Last 5
Season Last 5
PPG-7.2
28.2
21.0
RPG-1.5
7.1
5.6
APG+1.3
5.1
6.4
OVER 29.5 PTS
Last 5 games
1
Current Streak
1
Longest Streak
UNDER
Streak Type
29.5
24
DAL
2026-03-06
2026-03-06 vs DAL: 24 pts
23
CLE
2026-03-08
2026-03-08 vs CLE: 23 pts
8
SAS
2026-03-10
2026-03-10 vs SAS: 8 pts
34
OKC
2026-03-12
2026-03-12 vs OKC: 34 pts
16
WAS
2026-03-14
2026-03-14 vs WAS: 16 pts
Over 29.5
Under 29.5
Last 5 games
Prop Confidence
PTS
OVER 29.5
72%
AST
OVER 4.5
70%
REB
UNDER 7.5
65%
3PM
UNDER 2
62%
vs ??? (H2H)7 games
PPG
27.9
RPG
6.0
APG
3.4
Defensive Matchup Profile
Top Defenders This Season
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Clowney | 3 | 17 | 35% | -17.6% | medium |
| Kelly Oubre Jr. | 4 | 16 | 25% | -22.6% | medium |
| Tobias Harris | 4 | 14 | 42% | -14.3% | medium |
| Franz Wagner | 3 | 13 | 67% |
Brown Eyes Points Line vs. Suns' Porous Defense
Jaylen Brown arrives at 28.2 PPG season average but has cooled to 23.5 PPG over his last 10 games, showing slight regression. However, Phoenix's defense allows 111.16 DEF rating with -0.961 scoring suppression, and Brown has historically posted 27.9 PPG across 7 prior meetings with the Suns. At home without back-to-back fatigue, Brown's season home PPG of 27.26 combined with the Suns' weak perimeter defense makes the points line enticing.
Stat Trends
PPG
21.0(↓ from 28.2)
Assists
6.4(↑ from 5.1)
Rebounds
5.6(↓ from 7.1)
Key Matchup
Devin Booker has logged 8.8 minutes defending Brown in prior meetings, allowing 9 points on 36.4% FG. Limited defensive sample, but Brown's size and pace should exploit Phoenix's 111.16 defensive rating at home.
Prop Analysis
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jaylen Brown▼ | Points | 29.5 | OVER | 72%HIGH | 1/2 | 20% | 41 | ✓ |
Jaylen Brown▼ | Assists | 4.5 | OVER | 70%HIGH | 1/2 | 80% | 6 | ✓ |
Jaylen Brown▼ | Rebounds | 7.5 | UNDER | 65%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 80% | 7 | ✓ |
Jaylen Brown▼ | 3PM | 2 | UNDER | 62%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 100% | 2 | ✗ |
ML Scout Analysis
PTS25.5OVER23%logisticDecent Leg (13/20)OVER 9x13/2065%+9.8% edgePrediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Line moved -2.0; Value edge shifted +0.111▼
REB5.5OVER2%logisticDecent Leg (13/20)16/2080%+24.4% edgePrediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted +0.554; Scorecard changed +3.0▼
P+R34.5OVER0%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x12/2060%▼
P+A34OVER0%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x11/2055%▼
STL0.5OVER0%logisticWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x12/2060%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Confidence moved HIGH to LOW; Line moved -1.0▼
3PM1.5UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%No material changes▼
PRA37.5UNDER12%logisticWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x15/2075%Line moved -2.0; Value edge shifted -0.089▼
AST5.5UNDER5%logisticWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x14/2070%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge shifted -0.522; Odds moved materially▼
R+A14UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%▼
Featured Pick
Jaylen Brown
Points OVER 29.5MEDIUM
Brown's 27.9 PPG vs. Phoenix historically, 27.26 at home, and the Suns' bottom-tier defense (-0.961 scoring suppression) support surpassing 29.5. Recent 10-game dip to 23.5 PPG tempers confidence, but home court and opponent weakness justify the over lean.
This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.