Last 5 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudy Gobert | 4 | 25 | 83% | +41.3% | medium |
| Alperen Sengun | 4 | 19 | 54% | +10.2% | medium |
| Donovan Clingan | 3 | 16 | 56% | -4.5% | medium |
| Maxime Raynaud | 3 | 16 | 92% |
Brook Lopez is trending downward, averaging just 6.8 PPG over his last 5 games despite elevated playing time (23.8 MPG). However, he has a favorable historical matchup against San Antonio, posting 14.4 PPG across 9 games vs. the Spurs on 29.2 MPG. The Spurs' defense ranks well (111.83 rating) with notable scoring suppression (-0.806), and Victor Wembanyama's length poses a specific challenge. Lopez's consistency issues (0 points vs. Sacramento, 3 points vs. Minnesota) make this a volatile prop slate.
Victor Wembanyama has allowed 34 points in 13.4 minutes to opponents in limited action, suggesting potential vulnerability, but his length and mobility should trouble Lopez's offensive rhythm. San Antonio's overall defense (-0.806 scoring suppression) should suppress Lopez's scoring relative to his season average.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Brook Lopez▼ | Points | 6.5 | OVER | 62%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 40% | 3 | ✗ |
Brook Lopez▼ | Rebounds | 2.5 | OVER | 58%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 60% | 1 | ✗ |
Brook Lopez▼ | Assists | 0.5 | OVER | 70%HIGH | 1/2 | 60% | 1 | ✓ |
Brook Lopez▼ | PRA | 9.5 | UNDER | 55%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% | 5 | ✓ |
Lopez's recent assist trajectory (1.8 APG last 5 games, 1.4 APG vs. Spurs career) dramatically exceeds this line. At -172 odds the line is sharp, but Lopez's facilitation role has genuinely improved. The 0.5 threshold is easily clearable even in mediocre performances.
| medium |
| Nick Richards | 4 | 13 | 55% | +8.0% | medium |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Kornet | 2 | 10 | 10 | 71% | 71% |
| Victor Wembanyama | 2 | 10 | 8 | 27% | 36% |
| Stephon Castle | 3 | 3 | 6 | 33% | 33% |
| Carter Bryant | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| De'Aaron Fox | 3 | 2 | 4 | 100% | 100% |
Lopez averages 14.4 PPG in 9 career games vs. San Antonio and posted 10.7 PPG over his last 10 games. Despite recent volatility, the historical matchup is a strong tailwind. The 6.5 line is conservative given his Spurs history.
Lopez's 4.1 RPG (last 10) and 3.48 home rebound average exceed the 2.5 line. However, inconsistency in recent games (0 rebounds vs. Sacramento) and elevated minutes variance add risk.
Lopez's recent mean of 1.8 APG and season home average of 1.38 APG comfortably clear the 0.5 line. He's posted 2+ assists in 3 of his last 5 games, showing positive assist trend.
While Lopez has upside vs. the Spurs historically, his last 5 games average only 9.0 total PRA (6.8 + 3.0 + 1.4). Victor Wembanyama's defensive presence and recent cold streaks make the 9.5 line slightly elevated.