SF
Derrick Jones Jr.▼
LAC · SF
PPG
11.0
RPG
3.1
APG
1.3
L5 PPG
11.2
Last 5 GamesPTS
Season vs Last 5
Season Last 5
PPG+0.2
11.0
11.2
RPG+1.7
3.1
4.8
APG+0.3
1.3
1.6
UNDER 11.5 PTS
Last 5 games
2
Current Streak
2
Longest Streak
UNDER
Streak Type
11.5
16
MEM
2026-03-07
2026-03-07 vs MEM: 16 pts
16
NYK
2026-03-09
2026-03-09 vs NYK: 16 pts
12
MIN
2026-03-11
2026-03-11 vs MIN: 12 pts
10
CHI
2026-03-13
2026-03-13 vs CHI: 10 pts
2
SAC
2026-03-14
2026-03-14 vs SAC: 2 pts
Over 11.5
Under 11.5
Last 5 games
Prop Confidence
PTS
UNDER 11.5
72%
REB
OVER 3.5
65%
3PM
UNDER 1.5
68%
vs ??? (H2H)14 games
PPG
6.4
RPG
3.2
APG
0.8
Defensive Matchup Profile
Top Defenders This Season
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Booker | 3 | 12 | 38% | -17.4% | medium |
| De'Aaron Fox | 3 | 11 | 38% | -13.2% | medium |
| Trey Murphy III | 3 | 10 | 83% | +16.0% | medium |
| Jamal Murray | 2 | 10 | 17% |
Jones Jr. Struggles Against Spurs Defense Despite Home Court
Derrick Jones Jr. is in a significant downtrend, evidenced by just 2 points on 32 minutes against Sacramento on March 14th. Historically against the Spurs, he averages only 6.4 PPG across 14 matchups, well below his season average of 11 PPG. San Antonio's defense ranks well with a 111.83 defensive rating and -0.806 scoring suppression, making this a challenging spot. With recent inconsistency and unfavorable matchup history, Jones Jr. projects to underperform his season baseline.
Stat Trends
PPG
11.2(↓ from 11.0)
vs Spurs (career)
6.4(↓ from 6.4)
RPG
4.8(↑ from 3.1)
Key Matchup
Devin Vassell has seen the most time defending Jones Jr. (21 minutes), allowing 11 points on 41.7% FG. Historically, this Spurs matchup has severely limited Jones Jr.'s production (6.4 PPG across 14 games), making San Antonio's elite defense a significant headwind.
Prop Analysis
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Derrick Jones Jr.▼ | Points | 11.5 | UNDER | 72%HIGH | 2/2 | 40% | 10 | ✓ |
Derrick Jones Jr.▼ | Rebounds | 3.5 | OVER | 65%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 80% | 3 | ✗ |
Derrick Jones Jr.▼ | 3PM | 1.5 | UNDER | 68%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 100% | 2 | ✗ |
ML Scout Analysis
PTS9.5UNDER13%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (14/20)UNDER 3x11/2055%▼
REB3.5OVER28%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (13/20)11/2055%+6.0% edge▼
PRA15UNDER14%gbt_praDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼
R+A5.5UNDER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 4x8/2040%▼
P+R14OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼
P+A11OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼
AST1UNDER4%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼
FTM0.5UNDER20%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼
FTA1.5UNDER23%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼
STL1UNDER28%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 3x6/2030%▼
3PA2UNDER38%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 7x8/2040%▼
Featured Pick
Derrick Jones Jr.
Points UNDER 11.5MEDIUM
Jones Jr.'s career average against the Spurs (6.4 PPG) significantly trails his season average (11.0 PPG), and he just dropped 2 points in his last outing. While home court typically adds value, the combination of recent struggles, poor historical matchup dynamics, and San Antonio's strong defensive profile suggest he'll fall short of 11.5 points.
This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.