Last 5 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Edwards | 4 | 24 | 42% | -11.4% | medium |
| Luka Dončić | 4 | 22 | 57% | -1.5% | medium |
| Russell Westbrook | 3 | 14 | 40% | -8.2% | medium |
| Amen Thompson | 4 | 12 | 83% |
Kris Dunn has seen a significant scoring decline over his last 5 games (4.6 PPG vs 7.8 season average), though his assist numbers remain solid at 4.0 APG. Against San Antonio, he has a stronger historical record (8.67 PPG, 4.17 APG over 12 games), but the Spurs rank 111th in defensive rating with strong three-point suppression (-0.505). Playing at home where he averages just 7.28 PPG, Dunn faces Devin Vassell as his primary defender, who has limited him to 14 points on 41.7% shooting in 13.3 minutes of prior matchups.
Devin Vassell will likely be the primary defender on Dunn, having held him to 41.7% shooting over 13.3 minutes in prior matchups. San Antonio's strong three-point suppression (-0.505) should further limit Dunn's perimeter scoring opportunities.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kris Dunn▼ | Points | 7.5 | UNDER | 68%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 80% | 9 | ✗ |
Kris Dunn▼ | Assists | 3.5 | OVER | 72%HIGH | 1/2 | 40% | 1 | ✗ |
Kris Dunn▼ | Rebounds | 2.5 | OVER | 70%HIGH | 1/2 | 80% | 2 | ✗ |
Kris Dunn▼ | PRA | 10.5 | OVER | 65%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 80% | 12 | ✓ |
Dunn's last-5 average of 4.0 APG and career 4.17 AST vs San Antonio provide solid support for exceeding 3.5. Even as his scoring has dipped, his role as a secondary playmaker has remained consistent, making this a logical contrarian play to his point decline.
| medium |
| Tyrese Maxey | 2 | 12 | 60% | +1.8% | low |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Aaron Fox | 3 | 8 | 17 | 70% | 80% |
| Devin Vassell | 3 | 7 | 7 | 50% | 75% |
| Stephon Castle | 3 | 4 | 5 | 40% | 40% |
| Julian Champagnie | 3 | 3 | 2 | 20% | 20% |
| Dylan Harper | 2 | 2 | 7 | 67% | 83% |
Dunn is averaging only 4.6 PPG over his last 5 games, well below the 7.5 line. His 7.28 home PPG average and limited scoring against Vassell support an under projection despite historical 8.67 PPG vs San Antonio.
Dunn's recent mean is 4.0 APG with a 4.6 AST average in back-to-back scenarios. His vs. Spurs career mark of 4.17 APG and consistent playmaking role support exceeding the 3.5 line.
Recent 5-game average of 4.4 RPG significantly exceeds the 2.5 line. Last 10 games show 5.1 RPG, indicating a sustained rebounding uptick that should clear this modest projection.
Combined last-5 averages (4.6 PPG + 4.4 RPG + 4.0 APG = 13.0) project above 10.5. Even with recent scoring decline, the assists and rebounds output remains robust enough to clear this line.