Last 5 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyonte George | 3 | 22 | 59% | -2.0% | medium |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 4 | 21 | 34% | -15.9% | medium |
| Luka Dončić | 3 | 20 | 43% | -9.4% | medium |
| Cade Cunningham | 2 | 17 | 30% |
Stephon Castle is playing excellent basketball lately, averaging 18.4 PPG and 7.8 APG over his last 5 games with an upward trend. However, he's facing a Clippers defense that has suppressed scoring (-0.603 rating) and three-point shooting (1.055 suppression), a matchup that historically has slowed him down—he's averaged just 14.2 PPG across 5 prior meetings. Castle's away shooting efficiency typically dips slightly (16.48 away vs. 16.66 home PPG), and without back-to-back fatigue working in his favor, the Clippers' defensive scheme should present a stiff challenge.
The Clippers' defensive scheme, particularly their three-point suppression (1.055), has been effective against Castle historically. Key defenders Kris Dunn, Derrick Jones Jr., and Brook Lopez have limited him when matched up, which could suppress his scoring. However, his assist volume remains less affected by individual defenders.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Stephon Castle▼ | Points | 15.5 | UNDER | 68%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 40% | 23 | ✗ |
Stephon Castle▼ | Assists | 7.5 | OVER | 72%HIGH | 2/2 | 60% | 8 | ✓ |
Stephon Castle▼ | Rebounds | 4.5 | OVER | 65%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 80% | 7 | ✓ |
Stephon Castle▼ | PRA | 23.5 | OVER | 70%HIGH | 2/2 | 80% | 38 | ✓ |
Castle has averaged 7.8 APG over his last 5 games and 7.5 APG over 10 games—both exceed the line. His recent game logs show consistent double-digit assist production (10, 10, 6, 5, 8), and while the Clippers play solid defense, they don't have a unique assists suppression profile that would negate his playmaking strength.
| low |
| Amen Thompson | 4 | 17 | 50% | -3.1% | medium |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kawhi Leonard | 2 | 14 | 20 | 70% | 90% |
| Darius Garland | 2 | 7 | 10 | 36% | 41% |
| Brook Lopez | 3 | 5 | 8 | 75% | 100% |
| Bennedict Mathurin | 3 | 4 | 2 | 50% | 50% |
| Kris Dunn | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
Castle's season PPG (16.6) sits just above the line, but the Clippers' defensive rating and scoring suppression (-0.603) have historically limited him to 14.2 PPG in prior matchups. His away PPG (16.48) is marginally lower than home.
Castle's last 5 average (7.8 APG) and recent mean (7.5) exceed the line. He's shown consistent playmaking in recent games (10 assists vs. CHA, 10 vs. DEN), and Clippers allow a relatively neutral assist environment.
Last 5 average of 7.6 RPG is well above the line. Season average is 5.04, and recent mean is 5.2—Castle has grabbed 7+ in three of his last five games, suggesting sustained rebounding production.
Combining his recent scoring surge (18.4 PPG), consistent assists (7.8 APG), and elevated rebounding (7.6 RPG), Castle's combined output should exceed 23.5 despite the defensive headwind.