Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 2 | 12 | 53% | -0.3% | low |
| Alex Sarr | 2 | 11 | 42% | -8.6% | low |
| Zion Williamson | 2 | 11 | 33% | -17.0% | low |
| Julius Randle | 2 | 10 | 43% |
Aaron Gordon is averaging 16.9 PPG, 6.1 RPG, and 2.4 APG on the season, but his recent scoring has cooled to 13.0 PPG over the last 5 and 14.2 over the last 10. The matchup is reasonable on paper: Memphis allows a 118.63 defensive rating, and Gordon’s season averages against Memphis (15.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 2.7 APG in 11 games) sit near his current market. With Denver on a back-to-back and Gordon’s away scoring notably higher than at home, the clearest lean is to trust his multi-category production more than an aggressive points ceiling.
Memphis has a 118.63 defensive rating and Aaron Gordon has produced 15.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG, and 2.7 APG in 11 games versus this opponent. key_defenders data does exist here, but the safest edge is that Memphis has no dominant suppression signal against his full stat profile, while Denver's back-to-back could trim his scoring efficiency.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aaron Gordon▼ | Points | 16.5 | UNDER | 62%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% |
Aaron Gordon▼ | Rebounds | 6.5 | UNDER | 58%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 70% |
Aaron Gordon▼ | Assists | 2.5 | OVER | 60%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% |
Aaron Gordon▼ | 3PM | 1.5 | OVER | 64%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 50% |
Aaron Gordon▼ | Blocks | 0.5 | UNDER | 57%MEDIUM | — | 70% |
Aaron Gordon▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | UNDER | 61%MEDIUM | — | 70% |
Aaron Gordon▼ | Turnovers | 2 | UNDER | 66%MEDIUM | — | 90% |
Aaron Gordon▼ | PRA | 25.5 | UNDER | 63%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 50% |
Aaron Gordon▼ | P+A | 19.5 | UNDER | 60%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% |
The assist line is supported by his 3.4 assists per game over the last 10 and 2.92 assists per game in home splits, both above 2.5. Even though the season average is 2.4, the recent passing trend is the strongest single-category signal in his profile.
| low |
| Jimmy Butler III | 2 | 10 | 33% | -17.0% | low |
He’s at 13.0 PPG over his last 5 and 14.2 over his last 10, both below 16.5. The season average is 16.9, but the recent dip and Denver's back-to-back lower the scoring expectation.
Gordon’s season rebound mean is 6.1 and his last-10 mark is 6.0, both just under 6.5. Memphis gives up a decent pace of possessions, but the data still points to a slight under.
His season assists average is 2.4, but his last-10 is 3.4 and his home mean is 2.92, showing a recent assist bump. The 2.5 line is reachable if his role stays active in Denver's offense.
He averages 1.85 made threes per game on the season and 1.7 over the last 20, which clears 1.5. His away three rate is 2.0, which supports the over if his minutes hold.
He averages only 0.3 blocks per game on the season and 0.3 over the last 20. Even with a recent 0.6 over the last 5, the season baseline still favors the under.
His season stocks average is 0.89 and last-10 is 1.1, both below 1.5. The recent uptick is not enough to justify a high line.
He’s at 0.8 turnovers over his last 10 and 0.8 over his last 20, well below 2.0. That makes the under the cleaner read.
His season PRA is 25.4 using the provided averages, while his last-10 scoring has cooled and rebounds are only stable. This is a fair number, but the recent form slightly favors the under.
His season points-plus-assists comes out to 19.3, which sits just below this line. The last-10 assist improvement helps, but the scoring dip keeps the under in play.