AI Model:

Aaron Gordon▲

DEN · PF

PPG

16.9

RPG

6.1

APG

2.4

L5 PPG

13.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-3.9

16.9

13.0

RPG-0.7

6.1

5.4

APG-0.2

2.4

2.2

SPG-0.2

0.6

0.4

BPG+0.3

0.3

0.6

UNDER 16.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

16.5

NOP

2026-01-13

2026-01-13 vs NOP: 16 pts

DAL

2026-01-14

2026-01-14 vs DAL: 22 pts

WAS

2026-01-17

2026-01-17 vs WAS: 8 pts

LAL

2026-01-20

2026-01-20 vs LAL: 18 pts

MIL

2026-01-23

2026-01-23 vs MIL: 13 pts

NYK

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs NYK: 3 pts

OKC

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs OKC: 23 pts

HOU

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs HOU: 0 pts

LAL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs LAL: 27 pts

PHI

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs PHI: 12 pts

Over 16.5

Under 16.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 16.5FANDUEL

62%

REB

UNDER 6.5FANDUEL

58%

AST

OVER 2.5FANDUEL

60%

3PM

OVER 1.5FANDUEL

64%

BLK

UNDER 0.5BETMGM

57%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

61%

UNDER 2

66%

PRA

UNDER 25.5FANDUEL

63%

P+A

UNDER 19.5FANDUEL

60%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

13.3

17.5

RPG

6.0

6.4

APG

3.6

1.8

vs MEM (H2H)11 games

PPG

15.8

RPG

5.4

APG

2.7

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Giannis Antetokounmpo	2	12	53%	-0.3%	low
Alex Sarr	2	11	42%	-8.6%	low
Zion Williamson	2	11	33%	-17.0%	low
Julius Randle	2	10	43%

Aaron Gordon’s scoring line is playable, but the trend leans to a more balanced stat night

Aaron Gordon is averaging 16.9 PPG, 6.1 RPG, and 2.4 APG on the season, but his recent scoring has cooled to 13.0 PPG over the last 5 and 14.2 over the last 10. The matchup is reasonable on paper: Memphis allows a 118.63 defensive rating, and Gordon’s season averages against Memphis (15.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 2.7 APG in 11 games) sit near his current market. With Denver on a back-to-back and Gordon’s away scoring notably higher than at home, the clearest lean is to trust his multi-category production more than an aggressive points ceiling.

Stat Trends

PPG

13.0(↓ from 16.9)

RPG

5.4(↓ from 6.1)

APG

2.2(→ from 2.4)

Stocks

1.0(↑ from 0.9)

Key Matchup

Memphis has a 118.63 defensive rating and Aaron Gordon has produced 15.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG, and 2.7 APG in 11 games versus this opponent. key_defenders data does exist here, but the safest edge is that Memphis has no dominant suppression signal against his full stat profile, while Denver's back-to-back could trim his scoring efficiency.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend
Aaron Gordon▼	Points	16.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	60%
Aaron Gordon▼	Rebounds	6.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	70%
Aaron Gordon▼	Assists	2.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	60%
Aaron Gordon▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	50%
Aaron Gordon▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	—	70%
Aaron Gordon▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	—	70%
Aaron Gordon▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	—	90%
Aaron Gordon▼	PRA	25.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	50%
Aaron Gordon▼	P+A	19.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	60%

ML Scout Analysis

R+A9UNDER0%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)5/2025%▼

P+R21OVER0%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%▼

P+A18OVER0%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%▼

Featured Pick

Aaron Gordon

Assists OVER 2.5MEDIUM

The assist line is supported by his 3.4 assists per game over the last 10 and 2.92 assists per game in home splits, both above 2.5. Even though the season average is 2.4, the recent passing trend is the strongest single-category signal in his profile.

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pointsUNDER 16.562%MEDIUM

He’s at 13.0 PPG over his last 5 and 14.2 over his last 10, both below 16.5. The season average is 16.9, but the recent dip and Denver's back-to-back lower the scoring expectation.

reboundsUNDER 6.558%MEDIUM

Gordon’s season rebound mean is 6.1 and his last-10 mark is 6.0, both just under 6.5. Memphis gives up a decent pace of possessions, but the data still points to a slight under.

assistsOVER 2.560%MEDIUM

His season assists average is 2.4, but his last-10 is 3.4 and his home mean is 2.92, showing a recent assist bump. The 2.5 line is reachable if his role stays active in Denver's offense.

threesOVER 1.564%MEDIUM

He averages 1.85 made threes per game on the season and 1.7 over the last 20, which clears 1.5. His away three rate is 2.0, which supports the over if his minutes hold.

blocksUNDER 0.557%MEDIUM

He averages only 0.3 blocks per game on the season and 0.3 over the last 20. Even with a recent 0.6 over the last 5, the season baseline still favors the under.

stocksUNDER 1.561%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 0.89 and last-10 is 1.1, both below 1.5. The recent uptick is not enough to justify a high line.

turnoversUNDER 266%MEDIUM

He’s at 0.8 turnovers over his last 10 and 0.8 over his last 20, well below 2.0. That makes the under the cleaner read.

praUNDER 25.563%MEDIUM

His season PRA is 25.4 using the provided averages, while his last-10 scoring has cooled and rebounds are only stable. This is a fair number, but the recent form slightly favors the under.

paUNDER 19.560%MEDIUM

His season points-plus-assists comes out to 19.3, which sits just below this line. The last-10 assist improvement helps, but the scoring dip keeps the under in play.

timelineUNDER 16.5 PTS