Denver Nuggets vs Memphis Grizzlies — Predictions & Player Props

AI Model:

DEN

Denver Nuggets

42-27 | L10: 5-5

MEM

Memphis Grizzlies

23-44 | L10: 2-8

2026-03-18

Key Defensive Matchups

DEN Players

Jamal Murray

Jaylen Wells3g · 10m+0.0%94% eFGmedium

Cedric Coward2g · 4m+0.0%150% eFGlow

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope2g · 3m+0.0%75% eFGlow

Cameron Johnson

GG Jackson2g · 7m+0.0%64% eFGlow

Jaylen Wells3g · 6m+0.0%100% eFGmedium

Denver enters 42-27 while Memphis is 23-44, and the recent form gap is stark: the Grizzlies are 2-8 in their last 10 and riding an 8-game skid, while Denver is 5-5 over its last 10. The Nuggets are also on a back-to-back with only 1 day since their last game, while Memphis has had 2 days of rest, so pace and rotations could tilt slightly toward the home side despite Denver’s better season record.

Team Comparison

DENMEM

Key Players

Nikola Jokić▼Unknown

DEN · C

PPG

28.2

RPG

12.6

APG

10.6

L5 PPG

22.2

Jokić’s last 5 are below his season level at 22.2 PPG, but he is still producing 13.8 RPG and 13.2 APG over that span. His recent decline comes with massive all-around usage, and the matchup data shows he has averaged 24.941176470588236 PPG, 13.352941176470589 RPG, and 8.588235294117647 APG in 17 games against Memphis, so the prop lens stays strong even on a back-to-back.

Murray’s last 5 are down from his season scoring average, with 21.4 PPG and 5.4 APG, but his usage remains high at 34.0 MPG in that stretch. The books still have his points around the mid-20s, and his away split of 28.5 PPG and 6.7 APG suggests he can clear modest lines if the shot volume rebounds.

Gordon’s season line is 16.9 PPG and 6.1 RPG, but his last 5 scoring has fallen to 13.0 PPG with 5.4 RPG. Even with the dip, his matchup history against Memphis is solid at 15.818181818181818 PPG and 5.363636363636363 RPG over 11 games, so the main angle is whether his scoring stays below his season pace on the back-to-back.

Johnson has been trending up, with 14.8 PPG over his last 5 versus 11.6 PPG on the season. His recent form is especially relevant because he’s playing 30.0+ minutes lately, and his points line sits in the low teens across books, which is below his last-5 scoring output.

Spencer Jones▲

DEN · PF

PPG

6.0

RPG

3.3

APG

0.8

L5 PPG

7.4

Jones is a low-usage role player, but the recent trend is slightly up at 7.4 PPG and 4.0 RPG over the last 5. He also has only 1 game of opponent history here, where he scored 0 points with 5 rebounds, so his profile is more about a conservative under on scoring than upside.

Olivier-Maxence Prosper▲

Prosper has jumped to 13.0 PPG and 4.4 RPG over his last 5, well above his season averages of 8.7 PPG and 3.4 RPG. He’s also playing 25.2 MPG in that stretch, and his points line at 10.5 is below his recent output, though his historical matchup data against Denver is only 4.666666666666667 PPG in 6 games.

Prop Picks

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	Trend	Actual	Result
Nikola Jokić▼ DEN	Assists	10.5Proj	OVER	78%HIGH	—	—	—
Ty Jerome▼ MEM	Points	19.5fanduel	OVER	74%HIGH	50%	21	✓
Ty Jerome▼ MEM	Assists	5.5draftkings	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	50%	9	✗
GG Jackson▼ MEM	Points	11.5fanduel	OVER	77%HIGH	—	—	—
Jock Landale▼ MEM	Points	8.5fanduel	UNDER	76%HIGH	—	—	—

Model Comparison

9 models · 19 props compared

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Props Shown

19 total on slate

Models

1 game view

Unanimous

Full agreement across submitted picks

Featured Picks

Nikola Jokić

Assists OVER 10.5HIGH

He’s at 10.57 APG for the season, 11.2 APG over the last 5, and 8.588235294117647 APG in 17 head-to-head games with Memphis. The line is effectively at his season mean, while his recent form is above it.

Ty Jerome

Points OVER 19.5HIGH

Jerome’s season average is 20.1 PPG and his last 5 are 21.2 PPG, so 19.5 is a small ask. He’s also averaging 24.6 MPG recently, up from 22.3 MPG on the season.

Jock Landale

Points UNDER 8.5HIGH

Landale’s last 5 scoring is 5.8 PPG and his last 10 is 8.3 PPG, both below the line. The recent minute drop to 15.0 MPG adds support to the under.

Parlay of the Game

Nikola Jokić — Assists OVER 10.5Leg 1

Ty Jerome — Points OVER 19.5Leg 2

Jock Landale — Points UNDER 8.5Leg 3

These legs combine a high-usage Denver creator, Memphis’ most stable scoring guard, and a Grizzlies big whose recent role has shrunk. The Jerome and Jokić overs both benefit from Memphis’ offense potentially needing more creation, while Landale’s under aligns with his recent minute and scoring decline.

Injury & Lineup Notes

Jaren Jackson Jr. is Out with Injury/Illness-LeftKnee, which removes 19.4 PPG, 5.7 RPG, and 1.4 BPG from Memphis’ lineup. Denver is on a back-to-back, while Memphis has 2 days of rest; several Denver players have Unknown injury status in the supplied data, so no availability should be assumed beyond what is listed.