AI Model:

Jaylen Wells▲

MEM · SF

PPG

12.8

RPG

3.3

APG

1.7

L5 PPG

15.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+2.2

12.8

15.0

RPG-0.5

3.3

2.8

APG-0.5

1.7

1.2

SPG+0.1

0.9

1.0

BPG+0.1

0.1

0.2

OVER 12.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

12.5

GSW

2026-02-25

2026-02-25 vs GSW: 8 pts

DAL

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs DAL: 12 pts

IND

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs IND: 18 pts

MIN

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs MIN: 19 pts

POR

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs POR: 24 pts

LAC

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs LAC: 8 pts

BKN

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs BKN: 17 pts

PHI

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs PHI: 11 pts

DAL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs DAL: 23 pts

CHI

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs CHI: 16 pts

Over 12.5

Under 12.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 12.5FANDUEL

63%

REB

UNDER 3.5FANDUEL

69%

AST

UNDER 1.5

62%

3PM

OVER 1.5FANDUEL

74%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

66%

BLK

UNDER 0.5BETMGM

86%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

61%

UNDER 2

72%

P+R

OVER 16.5FANDUEL

58%

P+A

OVER 13.5BETMGM

57%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

15.1

15.5

RPG

2.6

2.9

APG

2.0

1.5

vs DEN (H2H)4 games

PPG

15.5

RPG

2.5

APG

1.3

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
James Harden	3	25	53%	-5.6%	medium
CJ McCollum	4	21	58%	+3.1%	medium
Luka Dončić	3	21	63%	+11.9%	medium
Anthony Edwards	3	20	45%

Wells is trending up, but the scoring market is a little tight

Jaylen Wells has been in better form lately, with his last 5 scoring at 15.0 PPG and his last 10 at 15.6 PPG versus a season mark of 12.8 PPG. He’s also holding steady minutes at 25.6-25.9 MPG recently, and his 3-point volume has climbed to 2.6-2.7 made threes per game in the last 5-10. The matchup context is mixed: Memphis is at home, where he averages 15.1 PPG, but the opponent metrics show a 116.65 defensive rating and a fast 100 pace, which supports a usable offensive environment. Sportsbook points lines are clustered around 12.5-13.5, making his recent production relevant but not a slam dunk over without stronger efficiency.

Stat Trends

PPG

15.0(↑ from 12.8)

RPG

2.8(↓ from 3.3)

APG

1.2(↓ from 1.7)

SPG

1.0(→ from 0.9)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data is available for this game, so there is no specific defender matchup data to target. The opponent profile is still workable for offense, with a 116.65 defensive rating and a 100 pace that can support volume.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Jaylen Wells▼	Points	12.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	11	✗
Jaylen Wells▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	69%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	5	✗
Jaylen Wells▼	Assists	1.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	0	✓
Jaylen Wells▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	74%HIGH	2/2	100%	2	✓
Jaylen Wells▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	66%MEDIUM	—	80%	0	✗
Jaylen Wells▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	86%HIGH	—	80%	0	✓
Jaylen Wells▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	—	50%	0	✓
Jaylen Wells▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	72%HIGH	—	100%	0	✓
Jaylen Wells▼	P+R	16.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	16	✗
Jaylen Wells▼	P+A	13.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	11	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PRA18.5UNDER37%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 4x10/2050%▼

PTS12.5OVER6%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 4x10/2050%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER▼

AST1.5UNDER33%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTM2UNDER46%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x5/2025%▼

STL1UNDER16%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

3PA5UNDER26%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%▼

R+A4UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%▼

P+A15OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 4x10/2050%▼

REB3UNDER44%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 3x3/2015%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

FTA2UNDER23%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 3x7/2035%▼

P+R16UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 4x8/2040%▼

3PM2UNDER34%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)8/2040%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

Featured Pick

Jaylen Wells

Threes OVER 1.5HIGH

This is the cleanest profile in the data: his season average is 1.91 made threes, his last 5 are 2.6, and his last 10 are 2.7. The available sportsbook lines are set at 1.5, and his recent shot-making has consistently cleared that mark.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jamal Murray	3	15	20	53%	63%
Cameron Johnson	3	4	5	50%	63%
Julian Strawther	2	4	6	60%	60%
Tim Hardaway Jr.	3	3	5	40%	50%
Nikola Jokić	3	2	4	67%	67%

pointsOVER 12.563%MEDIUM

He’s averaging 15.0 PPG over his last 5 and 15.6 over his last 10, both above the 12.5 line. His home split is 15.1 PPG, and he has reached 16+ points in 3 of his last 5.

reboundsUNDER 3.569%MEDIUM

Wells is at 3.3 RPG for the season and only 2.8 RPG over his last 5. He has stayed below 3 rebounds in 2 of his last 5 and his recent mean is still under the 3.5 number.

assistsUNDER 1.562%MEDIUM

His season average is 1.7 APG, but the last 5 have dropped to 1.2 APG. With only 1.5 APG over the last 10 and modest role creation, this sits close to the line but not clearly above it.

threesOVER 1.574%HIGH

He averages 1.91 made threes per game on the season and 2.7 over the last 5, well above 1.5. Recent game logs show 2+ threes in 9 straight listed games, supporting continued volume.

stealsOVER 0.566%MEDIUM

He averages 0.9 steals per game for the season and 1.0 over the last 5. That makes 0.5 a favorable threshold, especially with 1+ steal in 4 of his last 5.

blocksUNDER 0.586%HIGH

His season average is only 0.1 blocks per game and 0.2 over the last 5. A 0.5 line is far above his normal production.

stocksUNDER 1.561%MEDIUM

He’s at 1.03 stocks per game on the season and 1.4 over the last 10. That is a useful rate, but still below a 1.5 threshold on average.

turnoversUNDER 272%HIGH

He averages just 0.9 turnovers over the last 10 and 0.8 over the last 5. That is comfortably below a 2.0 turnover expectation.

prOVER 16.558%MEDIUM

His recent scoring spike gives him a chance to clear this if he gets to his usual 2.5-3.0 rebound range. The rebound piece is a drag, but his points form keeps this playable.

paOVER 13.557%MEDIUM

He is averaging 12.8 points and 1.7 assists on the season, so a modest scoring night can put him near or above this number. The recent points trend is the main support.

timelineOVER 12.5 PTS