AI Model:

Ty Jerome▲

MEM · PG

PPG

20.1

RPG

2.6

APG

5.4

L5 PPG

21.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+1.1

20.1

21.2

RPG-0.2

2.6

2.4

APG-0.4

5.4

5.0

SPG-0.2

1.2

1.0

BPG-0.2

0.2

0.0

OVER 19.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

19.5

SAC

2026-02-04

2026-02-04 vs SAC: 28 pts

POR

2026-02-07

2026-02-07 vs POR: 13 pts

GSW

2026-02-09

2026-02-09 vs GSW: 19 pts

DEN

2026-02-11

2026-02-11 vs DEN: 19 pts

MIA

2026-02-21

2026-02-21 vs MIA: 17 pts

GSW

2026-02-25

2026-02-25 vs GSW: 22 pts

MIN

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs MIN: 14 pts

LAC

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs LAC: 23 pts

PHI

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs PHI: 26 pts

DET

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs DET: 21 pts

Over 19.5

Under 19.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 19.5FANDUEL

64%

AST

OVER 4.5FANDUEL

58%

REB

OVER 2.5FANDUEL

55%

3PM

OVER 2.5FANDUEL

61%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

60%

OVER 2

57%

P+A

OVER 24.5FANDUEL

63%

PRA

OVER 27.5FANDUEL

59%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

20.3

18.4

RPG

2.7

2.0

APG

5.5

4.7

vs DEN (H2H)6 games

PPG

8.5

RPG

1.3

APG

3.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jaden McDaniels	3	12	70%	+12.6%	medium
Christian Braun	2	8	33%	-14.1%	low
Sam Hauser	1	5	0%	-47.4%	low
Gui Santos	2	4	0%

Ty Jerome’s scoring volume stays strong, but assists and combo props look safer than a big points spike

Ty Jerome is in solid form with his last 5 games at 21.2 PPG, 5.0 APG, and 24.6 MPG, slightly above his season marks of 20.1 PPG, 5.4 APG, and 22.3 MPG. His home splits are better than away, with 20.3 PPG and 5.5 APG at home versus 18.4 PPG and 4.7 APG on the road, which supports a steady workload in Memphis. The matchup data is mixed: Denver has a 116.65 defensive rating and the team is on a back-to-back, but Ty’s own vs-opponent sample is only 8.5 PPG and 3.0 APG across 6 games, so there is some historical drag. With his current role and recent minutes, the best angle leans to balanced production rather than relying on an outlier scoring game.

Stat Trends

PPG

21.2(↑ from 20.1)

APG

5.0(→ from 5.4)

RPG

2.4(→ from 2.6)

Key Matchup

The opponent profile shows a 116.65 defensive rating and a pace of 100, while Denver is on a back-to-back, which can help offensive efficiency. Ty Jerome also has 6-game head-to-head history with 8.5 PPG and 3.0 APG, so the matchup data does not fully match his season production.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Ty Jerome▼	Points	19.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	21	✓
Ty Jerome▼	Assists	4.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	9	✓
Ty Jerome▼	Rebounds	2.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	9	✓
Ty Jerome▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	5	✓
Ty Jerome▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	—	50%	1	✓
Ty Jerome▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	30%	2	✗
Ty Jerome▼	P+A	24.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	30	✓
Ty Jerome▼	PRA	27.5	OVER	59%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	39	✓

ML Scout Analysis

P+A25.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x9/1560%▼

R+A8.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x6/1540%▼

P+R22.5UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x7/1547%▼

Featured Pick

Ty Jerome

Threes OVER 2.5HIGH

This is one of the cleanest numbers on the board because his season average is 2.67 made threes and his last 5 is 2.8, both above the line. The recent game log also shows consistent volume from deep, with 3, 4, 2, 4, 3, and 3 made threes in his last several outings.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Christian Braun	2	8	4	33%	33%
Bruce Brown	2	2	0	0%	0%
Julian Strawther	2	2	0	0%	0%
Cameron Johnson	2	2	3	33%	50%
Spencer Jones	1	2	2	100%	100%

pointsOVER 19.564%MEDIUM

He is averaging 20.1 PPG on the season and 21.2 PPG over his last 5, both above 19.5. The main caution is his vs-opponent mark of 8.5 PPG across 6 games, which keeps confidence moderate.

assistsOVER 4.558%MEDIUM

Ty Jerome’s season assist average is 5.4 and his last 5 is 5.0, both clearing 4.5. His home assist split is 5.5, which supports the over despite some recent volatility.

reboundsOVER 2.555%MEDIUM

He averages 2.6 rebounds on the season and 2.4 over his last 5, so this sits near the line. The home split of 3.0 rebounds gives the over a slight edge.

threesOVER 2.561%MEDIUM

He is averaging 2.67 made threes per game this season and 2.8 over his last 5, both above 2.5. Recent game logs also show multiple 3+ make outings, including 3, 4, 2, 4, 3, and 3.

stocksUNDER 1.560%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.33 and recent mean is 1.4, both below 1.5. The volatility is manageable, but the raw average still points slightly under.

turnoversOVER 257%MEDIUM

He is at 2.2 turnovers per game over the last 5 and 1.8 over the last 10, with several recent games at 3 or 4 turnovers. Given the higher usage, 2.0 is reachable.

paOVER 24.563%MEDIUM

Ty Jerome’s season points plus assists profile is strong enough to clear 24.5, with 20.1 PPG and 5.4 APG combining to 25.5. His last 5 form also supports this with 21.2 PPG and 5.0 APG.

praOVER 27.559%MEDIUM

His season averages of 20.1 points, 5.4 assists, and 2.6 rebounds sum well above 27.5. The recent scoring and minutes trend keep the over in play, though the rebound component is modest.

timelineOVER 19.5 PTS