AI Model:

Cameron Johnson▲

DEN · SF

PPG

11.6

RPG

3.7

APG

2.3

L5 PPG

14.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+3.2

11.6

14.8

RPG-0.5

3.7

3.2

APG-0.3

2.3

2.0

SPG0.0

0.6

BPG+0.2

0.4

0.6

OVER 11.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

11.5

GSW

2026-02-22

2026-02-22 vs GSW: 9 pts

BOS

2026-02-25

2026-02-25 vs BOS: 11 pts

OKC

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs OKC: 7 pts

MIN

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs MIN: 0 pts

NYK

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs NYK: 10 pts

OKC

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs OKC: 6 pts

HOU

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs HOU: 17 pts

SAS

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs SAS: 15 pts

LAL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs LAL: 18 pts

PHI

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs PHI: 18 pts

Over 11.5

Under 11.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 11.5FANDUEL

62%

REB

OVER 3.5FANDUEL

54%

AST

OVER 1.5FANDUEL

58%

3PM

OVER 1.5FANDUEL

66%

BLK

UNDER 0.5BETMGM

61%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

60%

P+A

OVER 13.5FANDUEL

55%

P+R

UNDER 15.5FANDUEL

57%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

11.7

12.2

RPG

4.0

4.1

APG

2.7

2.1

vs MEM (H2H)13 games

PPG

11.6

RPG

4.5

APG

1.7

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jabari Smith Jr.	4	27	53%	-8.6%	medium
Russell Westbrook	4	13	63%	+2.5%	medium
Naji Marshall	3	12	50%	-4.6%	medium
Julian Champagnie	3	10	83%

Cameron Johnson’s 3-point volume keeps his scoring floor intact

Cameron Johnson has been trending up, with 14.8 PPG over his last 5 games compared to 11.6 PPG on the season, while his minutes have stayed steady near 30 per night. His season-long production is balanced but modest, and the matchup context is mixed: Memphis has a 118.63 defensive rating, but Johnson also gets a b2b boost context for Denver’s side and has been more productive at home and on the road in similar minute ranges. With strong three-point efficiency at 41.9% and a recent stretch of 2.4 threes per game over his last 5, his best path to value is through scoring and perimeter volume rather than heavy rebounds or assists.

Stat Trends

PPG

14.8(↑ from 11.6)

RPG

3.2(→ from 3.7)

APG

2.0(→ from 2.3)

3PM

2.4(↑ from 1.9)

Key Matchup

Memphis sits at a 118.63 defensive rating with a 100 pace and a 0.763 scoring suppression mark, so the overall environment is not especially friendly for efficiency. No specific defender matchup data should be assumed beyond the listed defender context, where the available key defenders show limited minutes and no clear one-to-one assignment data.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Cameron Johnson▼	Points	11.5	OVER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	20	✓
Cameron Johnson▼	Rebounds	3.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	6	✓
Cameron Johnson▼	Assists	1.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	3	✓
Cameron Johnson▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	5	✓
Cameron Johnson▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	—	70%	0	✓
Cameron Johnson▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	—	70%	1	✓
Cameron Johnson▼	P+A	13.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	23	✓
Cameron Johnson▼	P+R	15.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	26	✗

ML Scout Analysis

FTM2UNDER46%gbtDecent Leg (13/20)5/2025%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

P+R17UNDER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (13/20)OVER 3x9/2045%▼

PTS13OVER3%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 3x10/2050%▼

R+A7UNDER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 3x7/2035%▼

P+A15.5OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 3x10/2050%▼

3PM2UNDER6%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (11/20)9/2045%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER▼

3PA4UNDER23%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)9/2045%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTA2UNDER29%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)6/2030%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

PRA19OVER30%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 3x9/2045%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

REB4OVER3%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 3x8/2040%▼

AST3OVER6%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)4/2020%▼

Featured Pick

Cameron Johnson

Threes OVER 1.5HIGH

This is the cleanest angle because Johnson averages 1.86 made threes per game on the season and 2.4 over his last 5. The current 1.5 line is below both his season and recent form, and his 41.9% three-point shooting supports a consistent over profile.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
GG Jackson	2	7	13	57%	64%
Jaylen Wells	3	6	8	75%	100%
Cedric Coward	2	4	2	0%	0%
Olivier-Maxence Prosper	2	3	5	100%	125%
Cam Spencer	3	3	0	0%	0%

pointsOVER 11.562%MEDIUM

His season mean is 11.63 and his last 5 are 14.8 PPG, above the 11.5 line. He has also cleared 11.5 in four of his last five games, supporting a slight over lean despite variance.

reboundsOVER 3.554%MEDIUM

Johnson averages 3.7 rebounds on the season and 3.9 over his last 10, which is right around this number. The rebound profile is steadier than his scoring but still only a thin edge over the line.

assistsOVER 1.558%MEDIUM

He averages 2.3 assists on the season and 2.4 over his last 10, so 1.5 is well below his normal output. Even in lower-assist games, his recent floor has generally stayed above this number.

threesOVER 1.566%MEDIUM

Johnson averages 1.86 made threes per game on the season and 2.0 over his last 20, with 2.4 over his last 5. The volume and 41.9% three-point shooting make 1.5 a favorable threshold.

blocksUNDER 0.561%MEDIUM

He averages only 0.4 blocks per game on the season, below a 0.5 line. While he has 0.6 blocks over his last 5, the season baseline still points to the under.

stocksUNDER 1.560%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.0 and recent stocks are 1.0 as well, both below a 1.5 threshold. He can get there in spike games, but the average profile does not support the over.

paOVER 13.555%MEDIUM

He averages 11.6 points and 2.3 assists, which combine to 13.9 P+A on the season. That sits just above the 13.5 line, making it a small-value over.

prUNDER 15.557%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds total is 15.3, narrowly under this line. Recent scoring has risen, but rebounds have not pushed this combo enough to create a strong over case.

timelineOVER 11.5 PTS

Defensive Matchup Profile

Cameron Johnson’s 3-point volume keeps his scoring floor intact

Stat Trends

Key Matchup

Prop Analysis

ML Scout Analysis

Featured Pick

OVER 11.5 PTS