AI Model:

Jamal Murray▼

DEN · PG

PPG

25.2

RPG

4.4

APG

7.1

L5 PPG

21.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-3.8

25.2

21.4

RPG+0.4

4.4

4.8

APG-1.7

7.1

5.4

SPG-0.1

0.9

0.8

BPG-0.1

0.3

0.2

UNDER 23.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

23.5

OKC

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs OKC: 39 pts

MIN

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs MIN: 25 pts

UTA

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs UTA: 45 pts

LAL

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs LAL: 28 pts

NYK

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs NYK: 12 pts

OKC

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs OKC: 21 pts

HOU

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs HOU: 30 pts

SAS

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs SAS: 39 pts

LAL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs LAL: 5 pts

PHI

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs PHI: 12 pts

Over 23.5

Under 23.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 23.5FANDUEL

68%

REB

OVER 3.5FANDUEL

60%

AST

OVER 6.5FANDUEL

58%

3PM

OVER 2.5FANDUEL

63%

STL

OVER 0.5

56%

BLK

UNDER 0.5

74%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

64%

OVER 2

61%

PRA

UNDER 35.5FANDUEL

62%

P+A

UNDER 30.5FANDUEL

57%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

17.9

28.5

RPG

4.1

4.6

APG

5.9

6.7

vs MEM (H2H)11 games

PPG

18.7

RPG

4.1

APG

6.5

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Amen Thompson	4	15	56%	+7.3%	medium
Josh Okogie	4	13	75%	+18.4%	medium
Jaden McDaniels	4	13	71%	+16.0%	medium
Dennis Schröder	4	11	40%

Murray’s away split keeps the ceiling alive, but recent form is mixed

Jamal Murray is averaging 25.2 PPG, 7.1 APG, and 4.4 RPG on the season, but his last 5 have dipped to 21.4 points and 5.4 assists. The away profile is much stronger than the home split, with 28.5 PPG, 6.7 APG, and 3.5 threes per game, which matters here because Denver is on the road and on a back-to-back. Memphis has a 118.63 defensive rating and a 0.763 scoring suppression mark, so efficiency could be muted even if minutes stay healthy. His head-to-head numbers versus Memphis are lower than season average at 18.73 PPG and 6.45 APG across 11 games, which tempers the scoring projection.

Stat Trends

PPG

21.4(↓ from 25.2)

APG

5.4(↓ from 7.1)

RPG

4.8(→ from 4.4)

Stocks

1.0(↓ from 1.3)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders; Jaylen Wells is the only defender with notable minutes at 11.4, while the overall Memphis profile shows a 118.63 defensive rating and 0.763 scoring suppression. That combination points to a tougher scoring environment than Murray’s season averages.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Jamal Murray▼	Points	23.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	19	✓
Jamal Murray▼	Rebounds	3.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	8	✓
Jamal Murray▼	Assists	6.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	30%	12	✓
Jamal Murray▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	2	✗
Jamal Murray▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	—	50%	0	✗
Jamal Murray▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	—	70%	0	✓
Jamal Murray▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	—	70%	0	✓
Jamal Murray▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	61%MEDIUM	—	30%	1	✗
Jamal Murray▼	PRA	35.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	39	✗
Jamal Murray▼	P+A	30.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	31	✗

ML Scout Analysis

P+R30.5UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

P+A33UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

R+A11UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)7/2035%▼

Featured Pick

Jamal Murray

Points UNDER 23.5HIGH

This is the cleanest angle because the current line is below his season mean but still above his recent form, and his last 5 are only 21.4 PPG. The opponent context is also unfavorable, with Memphis showing a 118.63 defensive rating, 0.763 scoring suppression, and Murray’s own vs-opponent average sitting at 18.73 PPG over 11 games.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jaylen Wells	3	10	16	75%	94%
Cedric Coward	2	4	5	100%	150%
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	2	3	3	50%	75%
Cam Spencer	3	3	0	0%	0%
Olivier-Maxence Prosper	2	2	2	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 23.568%MEDIUM

He is at 25.2 PPG for the season, but the last 5 are down to 21.4 and his vs-opponent scoring is only 18.73 across 11 games. Memphis also carries a 118.63 defensive rating and 0.763 scoring suppression, which supports a lower-scoring outcome.

reboundsOVER 3.560%MEDIUM

Murray averages 4.4 RPG on the season and 4.8 RPG over his last 5, both above 3.5. The line is modest relative to his baseline production.

assistsOVER 6.558%MEDIUM

His season average is 7.1 APG and his away split rises to 6.7 APG, while the line sits at 6.5. Recent form is softer at 5.4 APG over the last 5, so this is competitive but still playable above the posted number.

threesOVER 2.563%MEDIUM

He averages 3.1 threes per game on the season and 3.0 over the last 10, both clearing 2.5. The away split is also strong at 3.5 FG3M per game.

stealsOVER 0.556%MEDIUM

He averages 0.9 steals per game on the season and 0.8 over the last 5, so 0.5 is a reachable threshold. The matchup environment is less helpful for upside, but the volume supports a lean over.

blocksUNDER 0.574%HIGH

Murray averages only 0.3 blocks per game on the season and 0.2 over the last 5. That is well below a 0.5 line.

stocksUNDER 1.564%MEDIUM

He averages 1.2 stocks on the season and 1.0 over the last 5, both below 1.5. Even with a decent away split, the combined defensive stats profile does not justify an over at this level.

turnoversOVER 261%MEDIUM

His recent turnover rate is elevated at 2.3 over the last 10 and 2.2 over the last 20, while his season mark is 2.0+ by the provided logs. The back-to-back and road context can add to mistakes.

praUNDER 35.562%MEDIUM

Season averages sum to about 36.7 PRA using 25.2 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 7.1 assists, but the recent trend is down with 21.4/4.8/5.4 over the last 5. Memphis and the back-to-back create enough drag to prefer the under at this number.

paUNDER 30.557%MEDIUM

His season P+A is 32.3, but the last 5 drop to 26.8 and his vs-opponent scoring/assist history is also softer than season average. The market line is close enough to lean under given the recent decline.

timelineUNDER 23.5 PTS