AI Model:

Alperen Sengun▼

HOU · C

PPG

20.3

RPG

9.0

APG

6.0

L5 PPG

17.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-3.3

20.3

17.0

RPG-2.4

9.0

6.6

APG-2.2

6.0

3.8

SPG-1.0

1.2

0.2

BPG-0.3

1.1

0.8

OVER 17.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

17.5

UTA

2026-02-23

2026-02-23 vs UTA: 16 pts

SAC

2026-02-25

2026-02-25 vs SAC: 26 pts

ORL

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs ORL: 16 pts

MIA

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs MIA: 13 pts

WAS

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs WAS: 32 pts

GSW

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs GSW: 17 pts

POR

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs POR: 28 pts

SAS

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs SAS: 16 pts

TOR

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs TOR: 14 pts

DEN

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs DEN: 10 pts

Over 17.5

Under 17.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 17.5FANDUEL

56%

REB

UNDER 8.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

AST

UNDER 5.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

BLK

OVER 0.5FANDUEL

57%

STL

UNDER 1.5STAKE

64%

STL+BLK

UNDER 2.5

59%

OVER 3.5

63%

PRA

UNDER 31.5FANDUEL

55%

P+A

UNDER 23.5FANDUEL

56%

P+R

OVER 25.5FANDUEL

57%

R+A

UNDER 13.5FANDUEL

54%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

17.3

18.1

RPG

9.5

8.2

APG

5.9

4.9

vs LAL (H2H)14 games

PPG

17.7

RPG

9.5

APG

4.3

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Nikola Jokić	4	24	58%	-0.0%	medium
Maxime Raynaud	4	20	50%	-5.0%	medium
Rudy Gobert	2	14	57%	+4.7%	low
Luke Kornet	3	13	100%

Sengun’s volume is strong, but recent dip and turnover risk keep the ceiling in check

Alperen Sengun is still producing at a high season level with 20.3 PPG, 9.0 RPG, and 6.0 APG across 57 games, but his recent form has cooled to 17.0 PPG, 6.6 RPG, and 3.8 APG over the last 5. His last 10 and last 20 averages also sit below his season marks, and the data shows elevated turnovers with 4.2 TOPG in the last 5 and 4.0 in the last 10. This matchup comes against a Lakers defense with a 114.97 defensive rating and opponent-specific scoring suppression of -0.082, while Sengun’s prior head-to-head line is 17.7 PPG, 9.5 RPG, and 4.3 APG over 14 games. The market has already adjusted down on his scoring, but the rebound and combo props still look more stable than a points over.

Stat Trends

PPG

17.0(↓ from 20.3)

RPG

6.6(↓ from 9.0)

APG

3.8(↓ from 6.0)

Stocks

1.0(↓ from 2.3)

Key Matchup

The Lakers have a 114.97 defensive rating, pace of 100, and scoring suppression of -0.082, which points to a tougher environment than Sengun’s season averages. There is no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, so the clearest edge comes from the team-level defensive and pace context.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Alperen Sengun▼	Points	17.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	30%	27	✓
Alperen Sengun▼	Rebounds	8.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	4	✓
Alperen Sengun▼	Assists	5.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	10	✗
Alperen Sengun▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	0	✗
Alperen Sengun▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	—	80%	1	✓
Alperen Sengun▼	STL+BLK	2.5	UNDER	59%MEDIUM	—	70%	1	✓
Alperen Sengun▼	Turnovers	3.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	—	40%	2	✗
Alperen Sengun▼	PRA	31.5	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	41	✗
Alperen Sengun▼	P+A	23.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	37	✗
Alperen Sengun▼	P+R	25.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	31	✓
Alperen Sengun▼	R+A	13.5	UNDER	54%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	14	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PRA33.5UNDER8%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)11/2055%▼

REB8.5UNDER14%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%+8.1% edge▼

P+R29.5OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%▼

PTS18.5UNDER12%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 3x11/2055%▼

3PA1.5UNDER11%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 5x10/2050%▼

FTM2.5UNDER0%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 5x10/2050%▼

P+A27UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (8/20)9/2045%▼

AST5.5UNDER33%gbt_assistsAvoid (7/20)9/2045%+9.1% edge▼

BLK1UNDER43%gbt_blocksAvoid (7/20)7/2035%▼

FTA4UNDER11%gbtAvoid (7/20)9/2045%▼

R+A14UNDER0%gbt_raAvoid (7/20)UNDER 3x9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Alperen Sengun

Turnovers OVER 3.5HIGH

Sengun’s recent turnover rate is the strongest trend in the data, sitting at 4.2 TOPG over the last 5 and 4.0 over the last 10. With his usage still significant and his playmaking role intact, 3.5 looks like a favorable over despite some natural variance.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Deandre Ayton	2	12	12	75%	75%
Jaxson Hayes	1	3	1	0%	0%
Jarred Vanderbilt	1	2	3	50%	75%
LeBron James	2	2	13	86%	93%
Luka Dončić	2	1	11	80%	110%

pointsOVER 17.556%MEDIUM

His season average is 20.3 PPG and his last 10 is 18.8, both above 17.5. The recent 5-game dip to 17.0 lowers confidence, but the line is below his normal scoring baseline.

reboundsUNDER 8.558%MEDIUM

He is averaging 9.0 RPG on the season, but just 6.6 RPG over the last 5 and 8.0 over the last 10. With recent rebound production trending down, 8.5 is reachable but not a strong over.

assistsUNDER 5.560%MEDIUM

Sengun’s season mean is 6.04 APG, but his last 5 is only 3.8 and last 10 is 4.9. The under is supported by the recent drop in minutes to 28.8 in the last 5.

blocksOVER 0.557%MEDIUM

He averages 1.1 BPG on the season and 1.1 over the last 10, so 0.5 is below his typical output. Recent game logs still show block upside with 3 blocks against DEN and 2 against UTA.

stealsUNDER 1.564%MEDIUM

His season average is 1.2 SPG, but the last 5 is only 0.2 and the last 10 is 0.7. That recent steal suppression makes 1.5 a difficult number to clear.

stocksUNDER 2.559%MEDIUM

He averages 2.26 stocks for the season, but only 1.0 in the last 5 and 1.8 in the last 10. The recent trend is down, so this number sits above his current form.

turnoversOVER 3.563%MEDIUM

The recent turnover profile is elevated at 4.2 TOPG in the last 5 and 4.0 in the last 10. His high-usage role makes the over attractive even though the variance is noticeable.

praUNDER 31.555%MEDIUM

His season PRA baseline is 35.3 using 20.3 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 6.0 assists, but recent form has cooled materially. The last 5 combination of 17.0/6.6/3.8 makes the under more appealing than his season average would suggest.

paUNDER 23.556%MEDIUM

He averages 26.3 points plus assists on the season, but only 20.8 over the last 5 using 17.0 PPG and 3.8 APG. The recent slide in both scoring and playmaking supports the under.

prOVER 25.557%MEDIUM

Season points plus rebounds is 29.3, and even the last 10 sits at 26.8. The recent 5 is softer at 23.6, but the line is still below his season norm.

raUNDER 13.554%MEDIUM

His season rebounds plus assists average is 15.0, but the last 5 is just 10.4 and the last 10 is 12.9. That recent decline makes the under slightly preferable.

timelineOVER 17.5 PTS