Los Angeles Lakers vs Houston Rockets — Predictions & Player Props

AI Model:

LAL

Los Angeles Lakers

43-25 | L10: 9-1

HOU

Houston Rockets

41-26 | L10: 5-5

2026-03-18

Key Defensive Matchups

LAL Players

Deandre Ayton

Alperen Sengun2g · 14m+0.0%90% eFGlow

Clint Capela1g · 6m+0.0%0% eFGlow

Steven Adams1g · 5m+0.0%100% eFGlow

Austin Reaves

Tari Eason3g · 8m+0.0%50% eFGmedium

Reed Sheppard3g · 7m+0.0%42% eFGmedium

The Lakers enter at 43-25 on a 6-game streak and 9-1 over their last 10, while Houston is 41-26 and 5-5 over its last 10, so the form edge is clearly with Los Angeles. Both teams are on 2 days rest and neither is on a back-to-back, which points to normal starter minutes, but Houston will want to respond after dropping its last game.

Team Comparison

LALHOU

Key Players

Luka Dončić—

LAL · PG

PPG

32.9

RPG

7.9

APG

8.5

L5 PPG

36.6

Luka is coming off 36, 30, 51, 31 and 35 points in his last five, and his season line of 32.9 PPG pairs with 35.7 MPG. His last 5 is above season average, but not by 20%+; the more important note is his massive usage and the fact he just posted 36 points and 4 assists in the prior Houston meeting.

Reaves is still averaging 23.8 PPG, 4.8 RPG and 5.5 APG on the season, but his last 5 is 26.6 PPG with 40.4 MPG, so the scoring has run above his baseline. The recent spike is real, but his last 10 drops to 21.3 PPG, making point overs more delicate than assist or combo looks.

LeBron James—

LAL · PF

PPG

21.2

RPG

5.7

APG

6.9

L5 PPG

18.0

LeBron’s season line remains strong at 21.2 PPG, 5.7 RPG and 6.9 APG, but his last 5 is only 18.0 PPG with 34.6 MPG. That gap suggests some scoring regression versus the season mean, while his playmaking remains intact in the 6.4 APG range over the last five.

Smart’s last 5 is up to 11.2 PPG with 2.0 stocks, while his season average is 9.6 PPG. He’s also playing 32.0 MPG over the last five, so the minutes support has been better than his season baseline and the 1.5 steal line is live if the defensive activity holds.

Ayton’s season production sits at 12.6 PPG and 8.4 RPG, but his last 10 has slipped to 9.0 PPG and 7.8 RPG with 23.6 MPG recently. The prior meeting with Houston was only 7 points and 11 rebounds, and his lower recent scoring makes the point side more vulnerable than the board side.

Amen Thompson—

HOU · PG

PPG

17.8

RPG

7.8

APG

5.3

L5 PPG

20.8

Amen’s workload is elite at 37.0 MPG on the season and 37.2 MPG over the last five, with 17.8 PPG, 7.8 RPG and 5.3 APG overall. He just posted 19 points, 12 rebounds and 5 assists against the Lakers, but his last-5 scoring is 20.8 PPG versus a 19.9 last-10, so the output is still holding near a high level.

Jabari Smith Jr.—

HOU · PF

PPG

15.5

RPG

6.9

APG

1.8

L5 PPG

17.8

Jabari is trending slightly above his season scoring at 17.8 PPG over the last five against a 15.5 season average, and he’s logging 34.4 MPG recently. His three-point volume is heavy at 2.0 fg3mpg over the last five, and he already scored 22 points in the prior game versus the Lakers.

Prop Picks

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	Trend	Actual	Result
Deandre Ayton▼ LAL	Points	10.5fanduel	UNDER	77%HIGH	60%	16	✗
Deandre Ayton▼ LAL	Rebounds	8.5fanduel	OVER	61%MEDIUM	50%	4	✗
Marcus Smart▼ LAL	Steals	0.5Proj	OVER	64%MEDIUM	80%	2	✓
Amen Thompson▼ HOU	Points	18.5draftkings	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	—	—
Alperen Sengun▼ HOU	Assists	5.5fanduel	UNDER	72%HIGH	70%	10	✗

Model Comparison

9 models · 18 props compared

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Props Shown

18 total on slate

Models

1 game view

Unanimous

Full agreement across submitted picks

Featured Picks

Deandre Ayton

Points UNDER 10.5HIGH

Ayton’s last 10 is 9.0 PPG and his last 5 is 11.8, both below or only barely above the number, while the season average is 12.64. The prior Houston meeting also finished at 7 points, reinforcing the under case.

Alperen Sengun

Assists UNDER 5.5HIGH

Sengun’s assist production has fallen from a 6.04 season mean to 4.9 over the last 5 and 4.9 over the last 10. With only 3.8 APG recently and higher turnover pressure, the under has the stronger profile.

Marcus Smart

Steals OVER 0.5MEDIUM

Smart is averaging 1.4 steals on the season and 1.8 over the last five, with 2.0 stocks in that span. The 0.5 threshold is low, and his recent defensive activity makes this one of the cleaner over looks.

Parlay of the Game

Deandre Ayton — Points UNDER 10.5Leg 1

Alperen Sengun — Assists UNDER 5.5Leg 2

Marcus Smart — Steals OVER 0.5Leg 3

This mix leans into two recent downward offensive trends and one low-threshold defensive over. Ayton and Sengun both have recent form below their season baselines, while Smart’s steals volume is strong enough to support the single-category over.

Injury & Lineup Notes

Both teams are listing their key players as Available, and there are no active injury absences provided for this game. No back-to-back concern is present, with each team on 2 days rest.

Player Deep Dives

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.