AI Model:

Deandre Ayton▼

LAL · C

PPG

12.6

RPG

8.4

APG

0.9

L5 PPG

11.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-0.8

12.6

11.8

RPG+1.6

8.4

10.0

APG+0.1

0.9

1.0

SPG-0.2

0.6

0.4

BPG-0.1

0.9

0.8

OVER 9.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

9.5

PHX

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs PHX: 2 pts

GSW

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs GSW: 4 pts

SAC

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs SAC: 12 pts

NOP

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs NOP: 13 pts

DEN

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs DEN: 0 pts

NYK

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs NYK: 6 pts

MIN

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MIN: 14 pts

CHI

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs CHI: 23 pts

DEN

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs DEN: 9 pts

HOU

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs HOU: 7 pts

Over 9.5

Under 9.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 9.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

REB

OVER 7.5DRAFTKINGS

73%

AST

OVER 0.5DRAFTKINGS

52%

STL

OVER 0.5

48%

BLK

OVER 0.5BETMGM

55%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

58%

OVER 0.5

57%

P+A

UNDER 10.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

P+R

OVER 16.5DRAFTKINGS

61%

R+A

OVER 7.5DRAFTKINGS

74%

OVER 0

54%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

11.9

8.6

RPG

8.5

6.6

APG

0.9

1.0

vs HOU (H2H)12 games

PPG

15.6

RPG

9.0

APG

0.8

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Mark Williams	4	21	83%	+15.9%	medium
Rudy Gobert	3	20	50%	-17.4%	medium
Maxime Raynaud	3	14	75%	+7.6%	medium
Alperen Sengun	2	14	90%

Ayton’s rebounding is the clearest angle, but scoring stays fragile

Deandre Ayton has been trending down overall, with season averages of 12.6 PPG and 8.4 RPG, while his last 10 drops to 9.0 PPG and 7.8 RPG on 23.6 MPG. The one positive is rebounding: his last 5 is up to 10.0 RPG, and he has also posted 11 rebounds in his most recent game against Houston. Against this opponent, his history is strong at 15.58 PPG and 9.0 RPG across 12 games, but the current form and reduced minutes make the scoring props less appealing than the board work.

Stat Trends

PPG

11.8(↓ from 12.6)

RPG

10.0(↑ from 8.4)

APG

1.0(→ from 0.9)

Key Matchup

The provided opponent data shows Houston has a 109.48 defensive rating and Ayton has averaged 15.58 PPG and 9.0 RPG in 12 games vs this opponent. Key defender data is available, but no specific defender matchup data can be used beyond the listed numbers.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Deandre Ayton▼	Points	9.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	16	✓
Deandre Ayton▼	Rebounds	7.5	OVER	73%HIGH	1/2	70%	4	✗
Deandre Ayton▼	Assists	0.5	OVER	52%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	2	✓
Deandre Ayton▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	48%LOW	—	40%	0	✗
Deandre Ayton▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	50%	3	✓
Deandre Ayton▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	40%	3	✓
Deandre Ayton▼	Turnovers	0.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	40%	1	✓
Deandre Ayton▼	P+A	10.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	18	✗
Deandre Ayton▼	P+R	16.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	20	✓
Deandre Ayton▼	R+A	7.5	OVER	74%HIGH	1/2	70%	6	✗
Deandre Ayton▼	Double-Double	0	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	—	—	—

ML Scout Analysis

P+R19UNDER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 2x8/1942%▼

PTS10.5UNDER26%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)10/1953%▼

REB6.5UNDER15%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x13/1968%▼

PRA20UNDER31%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x8/1942%▼

P+A12OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)10/1953%▼

FTM1UNDER28%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)8/1942%▼

FTA2UNDER11%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)8/1942%▼

R+A8.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x10/1953%▼

Featured Pick

Deandre Ayton

Rebounds OVER 7.5HIGH

This is the cleanest number relative to his current profile. Ayton is at 8.43 RPG on the season, 8.55 at home, and 10.0 in his last 5, while his most recent game against Houston produced 11 rebounds.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Alperen Sengun	2	14	20	90%	90%
Clint Capela	1	6	0	0%	0%
Steven Adams	1	5	2	100%	100%
Amen Thompson	3	5	13	75%	75%
Kevin Durant	3	4	18	67%	75%

pointsOVER 9.556%MEDIUM

His season mean is 12.64 points and his last 5 is 11.8, both above 9.5. The recent 9.0 PPG over the last 10 and the lower 23.6 recent MPG keep confidence modest.

reboundsOVER 7.573%HIGH

Ayton averages 8.43 RPG for the season, 8.55 at home, and 10.0 over his last 5. He also had 11 rebounds in his most recent game vs Houston, which supports the over despite the down trend.

assistsOVER 0.552%MEDIUM

He averages 0.88 assists per game and 1.0 over his last 5, so 0.5 is a low bar. The role is still limited, so this is more of a thin lean than a strong edge.

stealsOVER 0.548%LOW

His season average is 0.6 steals and his combined stocks profile is usable. The volatility is high, so this is only a slight lean.

blocksOVER 0.555%MEDIUM

Ayton averages 0.9 blocks per game and 0.8 over the last 5, making 0.5 reachable. The recent game logs show multiple block games, but the minute volatility lowers certainty.

stocksOVER 1.558%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.52, with 1.55 at home and 1.86 in b2b splits. That sits just above the threshold, but the recent 1.2 average keeps it in the middle range.

turnoversOVER 0.557%MEDIUM

He has 0.7 turnovers per game on the season and 0.9 at home. With usage concentrated in the paint, a low turnover line is still live.

paUNDER 10.566%MEDIUM

Ayton’s season points plus assists profile is 13.5 on the raw averages, but the recent 9.0 PPG and 0.8 APG trend down. His assists are too light to give much cushion if scoring lands in the low teens or below.

prOVER 16.561%MEDIUM

Season points plus rebounds total is 21.0, and his last 5 combination is 21.8 using 11.8 PPG and 10.0 RPG. The recent slowdown in scoring is the main risk, but the rebound spike helps.

raOVER 7.574%HIGH

His season rebound plus assist average is 9.3, and his home average is 9.45. Since assists are low but rebounds are stable, this line is still comfortably below his typical combined output.

double_doubleOVER 054%MEDIUM

He is a plausible double-double candidate because rebounds are near double digits and his points can get there on efficient scoring nights. The recent 9.0 PPG and lower minutes make it more of a coin-flip than a strong play.

timelineOVER 9.5 PTS