AI Model:

Austin Reaves▼

LAL · SG

PPG

23.8

RPG

4.8

APG

5.5

L5 PPG

26.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+2.8

23.8

26.6

RPG+0.4

4.8

5.2

APG+0.7

5.5

6.2

SPG+0.7

1.1

1.8

BPG+0.2

0.4

0.6

UNDER 21.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

21.5

GSW

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs GSW: 18 pts

SAC

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs SAC: 12 pts

NOP

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs NOP: 15 pts

DEN

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs DEN: 16 pts

IND

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs IND: 19 pts

NYK

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs NYK: 25 pts

MIN

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MIN: 31 pts

CHI

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs CHI: 30 pts

DEN

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs DEN: 32 pts

HOU

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs HOU: 15 pts

Over 21.5

Under 21.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 21.5FANDUEL

61%

REB

OVER 4.5FANDUEL

58%

AST

OVER 5.5FANDUEL

57%

3PM

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

STL

UNDER 1.5FANDUEL

64%

PRA

UNDER 32.5FANDUEL

56%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

21.5

15.6

RPG

4.4

3.2

APG

4.7

3.6

vs HOU (H2H)14 games

PPG

14.0

RPG

3.3

APG

4.1

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Donte DiVincenzo	4	17	77%	+5.5%	medium
Keyonte George	2	11	91%	+32.8%	low
Anthony Edwards	3	9	39%	-15.7%	medium
Brandin Podziemski	3	8	25%

Reaves’ workload is strong, but the matchup and line points lean to a tighter scoring night

Austin Reaves is coming in with a big scoring surge, averaging 26.6 PPG over his last 5 games versus 23.8 for the season, while also playing 40.4 MPG in that span. The caution flag is that his trend is marked down overall, his last 10 scoring average is only 21.3 PPG, and he has averaged just 14.0 PPG in 14 games vs Houston. With the Rockets showing a 109.48 defensive rating and negative scoring suppression, his volume should stay solid, but the historical matchup data makes the scoring line less attractive than his recent form suggests.

Stat Trends

PPG

26.6(↑ from 23.8)

RPG

5.2(↑ from 4.8)

APG

6.2(↑ from 5.5)

Key Matchup

There is no specific defender matchup data provided, so the cleanest read is from the team environment and opponent profile. Houston has a 109.48 defensive rating and negative scoring suppression, which adds resistance to a high-end scoring outcome for Reaves.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Austin Reaves▼	Points	21.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	14	✓
Austin Reaves▼	Rebounds	4.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	3	✗
Austin Reaves▼	Assists	5.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	8	✓
Austin Reaves▼	3PM	2.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	1	✓
Austin Reaves▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	0	✓
Austin Reaves▼	PRA	32.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	25	✓

ML Scout Analysis

REB4OVER21%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (13/20)9/2045%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

R+A9.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%▼

P+R25UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%▼

3PM2UNDER30%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 3x5/2025%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

3PA6.5UNDER25%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%▼

PRA28.5UNDER24%gbt_praWeak Leg (9/20)10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

P+A26UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

PTS19UNDER20%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%▼

AST5UNDER15%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

FTM5UNDER21%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

FTA5.5UNDER0%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

STL1UNDER20%gbt_stealsAvoid (7/20)8/2040%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

Featured Pick

Austin Reaves

Points UNDER 21.5MEDIUM

This is the clearest conflict between strong recent form and weaker matchup history. Even with 26.6 PPG over his last 5, his 14-game average vs Houston is only 14.0 PPG, and the market line at 21.5 leaves room for an under if the matchup history holds.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Tari Eason	3	8	9	44%	50%
Reed Sheppard	3	7	5	33%	42%
Amen Thompson	3	6	12	56%	56%
Kevin Durant	3	6	10	71%	71%
Jabari Smith Jr.	3	4	10	56%	56%

pointsUNDER 21.561%MEDIUM

His season mean is 23.8, but the last 10 is 21.3 and he has only 14.0 PPG in 14 games vs Houston. The recent hot streak is real, but the head-to-head sample and the betting bias toward UNDER support a cautious lean below 21.5.

reboundsOVER 4.558%MEDIUM

He averages 4.8 rebounds for the season and 5.2 over the last 5, with 5.0 at home. The line sits below his season average, making the over playable despite some variance.

assistsOVER 5.557%MEDIUM

Reaves is at 5.5 APG on the season and 6.2 over the last 5, with 5.24 at home and 5.67 in b2b context. The line is right at his seasonal mean, but the recent assist trend supports a slight over lean.

threesUNDER 2.563%MEDIUM

He averages 2.4 made threes on the season and 2.2 over the last 5, both below 2.5. Since the line is above his season mean and his recent trend is not accelerating, the under is the safer side.

stealsUNDER 1.564%MEDIUM

He averages 1.1 steals on the season and 1.4 over the last 10, but the 1.5 line is still above the season mean. His defensive stocks are useful, yet the standard deviation profile keeps this from being a strong over.

praUNDER 32.556%MEDIUM

His season PRA level is approximately 34.1 using 23.8 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 5.5 assists, but recent production is less stable and combo props carry higher variance. With the matchup history at 14.0 PPG vs Houston, the under gets the nod despite the recent minutes spike.

timelineUNDER 21.5 PTS