AI Model:

Kevin Durant—

HOU · SF

PPG

25.7

RPG

5.5

APG

4.5

L5 PPG

22.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-3.1

25.7

22.6

RPG+0.1

5.5

5.6

APG-0.9

4.5

3.6

SPG-0.2

0.8

0.6

BPG+0.1

0.9

1.0

OVER 24.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

24.5

ORL

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs ORL: 40 pts

MIA

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs MIA: 32 pts

WAS

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs WAS: 30 pts

GSW

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs GSW: 23 pts

POR

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs POR: 20 pts

SAS

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs SAS: 23 pts

TOR

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs TOR: 29 pts

DEN

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs DEN: 11 pts

NOP

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs NOP: 32 pts

LAL

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs LAL: 18 pts

Over 24.5

Under 24.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 24.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

REB

OVER 5.5DRAFTKINGS

55%

AST

UNDER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

57%

3PM

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

STL

OVER 0.5DRAFTKINGS

53%

BLK

OVER 0.5BETMGM

56%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

54%

UNDER 3.5

55%

PRA

OVER 34.5DRAFTKINGS

54%

P+A

OVER 29.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

P+R

UNDER 29.5DRAFTKINGS

52%

R+A

OVER 9.5FANDUEL

57%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

22.2

27.6

RPG

5.8

5.5

APG

4.4

4.0

vs LAL (H2H)13 games

PPG

26.8

RPG

6.8

APG

4.5

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Toumani Camara	3	18	75%	+5.4%	medium
DeMar DeRozan	4	17	50%	-1.7%	medium
Jaden McDaniels	2	16	59%	+2.8%	low
Saddiq Bey	4	16	54%

Durant has the volume, but the Lakers matchup keeps the ceiling in check

Kevin Durant is still producing at a high level with a 25.7 season scoring average and 36.4 minutes per game, but his recent form has cooled slightly to 22.6 PPG over the last 5. His last 10 games are closer to baseline at 25.8 PPG, 6.2 RPG, and 3.8 APG, while his turnover volume has been elevated at 3.4 per game in that span. This is a strong usage spot by volume, but Houston's opponent defense profile and Durant's last meeting with the Lakers at home — 18 points, 5 rebounds, and 2 assists — suggest a more measured projection than the top-end lines.

Stat Trends

PPG

22.6(↓ from 25.7)

RPG

5.6(→ from 5.5)

APG

3.6(↓ from 4.5)

Key Matchup

The key defensive context available shows LeBron James logging 26.3 minutes and allowing 14 points on 28.6% shooting in the data provided, while Austin Reaves and Marcus Smart have smaller sample defensive roles. Houston's opponent defense numbers are middling overall with a 114.97 defensive rating and a -0.082 scoring suppression, which is not a strong deterrent, though the -0.285 three-point suppression does slightly pressure Durant's perimeter output.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Kevin Durant▼	Points	24.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	18	✗
Kevin Durant▼	Rebounds	5.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	6	✓
Kevin Durant▼	Assists	4.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	4	✓
Kevin Durant▼	3PM	2.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	2	✓
Kevin Durant▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	53%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	2	✓
Kevin Durant▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	—	70%	0	✗
Kevin Durant▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	60%	2	✓
Kevin Durant▼	Turnovers	3.5	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	—	70%	4	✗
Kevin Durant▼	PRA	34.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	28	✗
Kevin Durant▼	P+A	29.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	22	✗
Kevin Durant▼	P+R	29.5	UNDER	52%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	24	✓
Kevin Durant▼	R+A	9.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	10	✓

ML Scout Analysis

P+A30.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x11/2055%▼

AST5.5OVER27%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 7x9/2045%▼

REB5.5UNDER4%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (8/20)10/2050%▼

PRA36.5UNDER26%gbt_praWeak Leg (8/20)9/2045%▼

P+R31UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (8/20)8/2040%▼

PTS25.5UNDER23%gbt_pointsAvoid (7/20)9/2045%▼

3PM2.5UNDER35%gbt_three_pmAvoid (7/20)10/2050%▼

3PA5.5UNDER27%gbtAvoid (7/20)10/2050%▼

BLK1UNDER50%gbt_blocksAvoid (6/20)OVER 2x7/2035%▼

FTM4UNDER24%gbtAvoid (6/20)OVER 2x9/2045%▼

FTA5UNDER4%gbtAvoid (6/20)OVER 2x9/2045%▼

R+A11UNDER0%gbt_raAvoid (6/20)7/2035%▼

Featured Pick

Kevin Durant

Points Over 24.5MEDIUM

This is the cleanest alignment between line and baseline: Durant is at 25.7 PPG for the season and 25.8 over the last 10. The last 5 dip to 22.6 and his most recent Lakers game at home was only 18 points, so it is not a high-confidence play, but the number is still below his normal scoring level.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
LeBron James	3	13	9	57%	64%
Rui Hachimura	3	8	6	29%	43%
Marcus Smart	3	5	0	0%	0%
Luka Dončić	3	3	12	63%	75%
Austin Reaves	3	3	2	0%	0%

pointsOVER 24.558%MEDIUM

Durant is averaging 25.7 PPG on the season and 25.8 over his last 10, which sits above this number. The recent 22.6 PPG last-5 dip lowers confidence, but the line still trails his core production.

reboundsOVER 5.555%MEDIUM

He is at 5.5 RPG for the season and 6.2 RPG over the last 10, so the trend supports a slight over lean. The variance is moderate, but his recent rebounding has been steady.

assistsUNDER 4.557%MEDIUM

Durant's season average is 4.5 APG, but the last 5 has fallen to 3.6 and the last 10 is 3.8. That recent dip makes the over less attractive at this number.

threesUNDER 2.560%MEDIUM

He averages 2.24 made threes on the season and 1.8 over the last 10, both below 2.5. The recent three-point volume and make rate point slightly to the under.

stealsOVER 0.553%MEDIUM

His season average is 0.8 steals per game and 0.9 over the last 10, so he clears this line on profile. The floor is decent, though the stat is naturally volatile.

blocksOVER 0.556%MEDIUM

Durant averages 0.9 blocks per game on the season and 1.0 over the last 10. That makes 0.5 a playable threshold despite normal shot-block variance.

stocksOVER 1.554%MEDIUM

He averages 1.75 stocks per game on the season and 1.9 over the last 10, which clears this combined defensive line. The category is volatile, but the baseline is strong enough.

turnoversUNDER 3.555%MEDIUM

His last 10 turnover average is 3.4, which is close to this mark, but his season rate is not provided as a sportsbook line and recent games show several high-turnover outings. This is a thin edge, leaning under.

praOVER 34.554%MEDIUM

His season baseline of 25.7 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 4.5 assists supports a PRA above this number, and his last 10 production is also strong. The matchup and recent scoring dip keep confidence moderate.

paOVER 29.556%MEDIUM

Durant averages 25.7 points and 4.5 assists, which combines to 30.2 on the season. That sits just above the line and aligns with his recent 25.8 PPG, 3.8 APG form.

prUNDER 29.552%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds is 31.2, but the recent scoring dip and the last head-to-head result of 18 points and 5 rebounds create some downside. This is close enough to prefer the under at the current number.

raOVER 9.557%MEDIUM

Durant's season rebounds plus assists sit at 10.0, and his last 10 is 10.0 as well. That makes 9.5 a reasonable over target with stable support.

timelineOVER 24.5 PTS