AI Model:

Marcus Smart▲

LAL · SF

PPG

9.6

RPG

2.8

APG

2.8

L5 PPG

11.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+1.6

9.6

11.2

RPG-0.6

2.8

2.2

APG-0.6

2.8

2.2

SPG+0.4

1.4

1.8

BPG-0.2

0.4

0.2

OVER 8.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

8.5

PHX

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs PHX: 13 pts

GSW

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs GSW: 8 pts

SAC

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs SAC: 9 pts

NOP

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs NOP: 10 pts

DEN

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs DEN: 9 pts

IND

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs IND: 11 pts

NYK

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs NYK: 5 pts

MIN

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MIN: 8 pts

DEN

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs DEN: 21 pts

HOU

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs HOU: 11 pts

Over 8.5

Under 8.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 8.5DRAFTKINGS

64%

REB

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

71%

AST

OVER 2.5BETONLINEAG

60%

STL

OVER 1.5FANDUEL

58%

BLK

OVER 0.5BETMGM

52%

3PM

OVER 1.5FANDUEL

66%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

69%

PRA

OVER 13.5DRAFTKINGS

57%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

9.5

8.1

RPG

2.5

1.6

APG

3.3

2.1

vs HOU (H2H)9 games

PPG

7.2

RPG

2.1

APG

3.9

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jamal Murray	3	17	94%	+26.8%	medium
James Harden	3	14	60%	+10.1%	medium
Kevin Durant	3	13	94%	+37.9%	medium
Ja Morant	2	12	33%

Smart’s defensive production is trending up, but his scoring line is still modest

Marcus Smart enters this game with an uptrend in form, averaging 11.2 PPG over his last 5 and 10.5 PPG over his last 10 versus 9.6 PPG for the season. His stocks have been especially strong, with 2.0 over the last 5 and 2.6 over the last 10, while his minutes have climbed to 32.0 and 30.7 in those same windows. The matchup data points to a slower, lower-scoring environment, with Houston listed at a 109.48 defensive rating and a 100 pace, and Smart has averaged just 7.22 PPG across 9 games against this opponent. With several books posting his points line at 8.5 and his recent scoring sitting above that number, the profile leans more toward steady all-around production than a true scoring spike.

Stat Trends

PPG

11.2(↑ from 9.6)

RPG

2.2(↓ from 2.8)

APG

2.2(↓ from 2.8)

Stocks

2.0(↑ from 1.8)

Key Matchup

There is no specific defender matchup data, so the best read is on the team context: Houston carries a 109.48 defensive rating, a 100 pace, and a -1.349 scoring suppression mark. Smart has also faced this opponent 9 times and averaged 7.22 PPG, which is a meaningful head-to-head scoring check.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Marcus Smart▼	Points	8.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	5	✗
Marcus Smart▼	Rebounds	1.5	OVER	71%HIGH	1/2	70%	3	✓
Marcus Smart▼	Assists	2.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	4	✓
Marcus Smart▼	Steals	1.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	2	✓
Marcus Smart▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	52%MEDIUM	—	20%	0	✗
Marcus Smart▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	1	✗
Marcus Smart▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	69%MEDIUM	—	60%	2	✓
Marcus Smart▼	PRA	13.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	12	✗

ML Scout Analysis

REB2.5UNDER20%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (14/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

P+R11.5UNDER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (13/20)9/2045%▼

PRA14.5UNDER18%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%▼

3PM1.5OVER13%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼

3PA5UNDER24%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x6/2030%▼

P+A12UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)8/2040%▼

AST3UNDER5%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (10/20)8/2040%▼

FTM0.5UNDER13%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x10/2050%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

FTA1.5OVER5%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x10/2050%▼

PTS9OVER0%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Scorecard changed -2.0▼

STL1UNDER48%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

R+A5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)11/2055%▼

Featured Pick

Marcus Smart

Threes OVER 1.5HIGH

This is one of the cleanest numbers in the card because Smart’s season average is 1.66 threes and his recent form jumps to 2.4 over both the last 5 and last 10. The line sits at 1.5 across multiple books, and his shot volume from deep has been stable enough to support the over.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Kevin Durant	3	13	19	78%	94%
Amen Thompson	3	7	6	25%	25%
Reed Sheppard	3	6	2	25%	25%
Jabari Smith Jr.	3	6	10	100%	100%
Tari Eason	3	3	4	33%	33%

pointsOVER 8.564%MEDIUM

His season average is 9.6 PPG and his last 5 are 11.2, both above the 8.5 line. The main caution is his 7.22 PPG in 9 games vs this opponent.

reboundsOVER 1.571%HIGH

He averages 2.8 RPG on the season and 2.4 over the last 10, well above 1.5. Even with recent game-to-game volatility, the volume is enough to support the over.

assistsOVER 2.560%MEDIUM

Smart is at 2.8 APG for the season and 2.7 over the last 10, which clears 2.5. His home mean of 3.03 also supports a slight lean up.

stealsOVER 1.558%MEDIUM

He averages 1.4 steals per game and 1.5 over the last 20, with 2.2 over the last 10. The line is reachable, but the season baseline is just below the number.

blocksOVER 0.552%MEDIUM

His season block rate is 0.4, but he is at 0.5 over the last 20 and has several recent games with block upside. This is a thinner prop than his steals or points.

threesOVER 1.566%MEDIUM

He averages 1.66 threes per game for the season and 2.4 over the last 5 and last 10. The recent volume and made threes rate are comfortably above the 1.5 line.

stocksOVER 1.569%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.77 and he is at 2.6 over the last 10. That combination makes 1.5 an approachable threshold.

praOVER 13.557%MEDIUM

Using his season averages, he projects to 9.6 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 2.8 assists for 15.2 PRA. The projection is above 13.5, but the scoring floor is not especially high.

timelineOVER 8.5 PTS