AI Model:

Tari Eason—

HOU · SG

PPG

10.5

RPG

6.3

APG

1.6

L5 PPG

5.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-5.1

10.5

5.4

RPG+0.5

6.3

6.8

APG0.0

1.6

SPG+0.2

1.2

1.4

BPG-0.5

0.5

0.0

UNDER 9.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

9.5

ORL

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs ORL: 2 pts

MIA

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs MIA: 10 pts

WAS

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs WAS: 9 pts

GSW

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs GSW: 9 pts

POR

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs POR: 5 pts

SAS

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs SAS: 2 pts

TOR

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs TOR: 8 pts

DEN

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs DEN: 8 pts

NOP

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs NOP: 4 pts

LAL

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs LAL: 5 pts

Over 9.5

Under 9.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 9.5FANDUEL

74%

REB

OVER 5.5FANDUEL

69%

AST

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

57%

3PM

UNDER 1.5FANDUEL

72%

STL

UNDER 1.5FANDUEL

62%

BLK

OVER 0.5BETMGM

55%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

63%

P+R

UNDER 15.5DRAFTKINGS

71%

PRA

UNDER 17.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

R+A

OVER 7.5DRAFTKINGS

61%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

8.7

9.1

RPG

5.5

8.0

APG

1.7

2.1

vs LAL (H2H)9 games

PPG

7.6

RPG

6.2

APG

1.2

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Luka Dončić	3	14	46%	-2.6%	medium
Karl-Anthony Towns	2	9	57%	+16.0%	low
Kawhi Leonard	2	9	50%	+5.1%	low
Cooper Flagg	3	8	17%

Rebounds and defensive stats keep Tari Eason live despite a shaky scoring trend

Eason’s season line is solid at 10.5 PPG, 6.3 RPG, and 1.2 SPG, but his recent scoring has cooled hard with 5.4 PPG over the last 5 and 6.2 over the last 10. The rebound profile is steadier, with 6.8 RPG over the last 5, 6.9 over the last 10, and 6.6 over the last 20, which keeps his floor higher than his points output. This matchup has already produced a low-scoring result for him on 2026-03-16 against LAL, when he had 5 points, 9 rebounds, and 3 assists in 33 minutes. With no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, the main lean is on rebounds and stocks rather than points.

Stat Trends

PPG

5.4(↓ from 10.5)

RPG

6.8(→ from 6.3)

APG

1.6(→ from 1.6)

Stocks

1.4(→ from 1.8)

Key Matchup

The data shows three listed key defenders, but the matchup context does not provide a clean one-to-one assignment, so there is no specific defender matchup data. The opponent profile is mixed for Eason: the Lakers allow a 114.97 defensive rating environment, but the team has a -0.082 scoring suppression and -0.285 three suppression that can weigh on his scoring and perimeter volume.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Tari Eason▼	Points	9.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	2/2	90%	10	✗
Tari Eason▼	Rebounds	5.5	OVER	69%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	6	✓
Tari Eason▼	Assists	1.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	1	✗
Tari Eason▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	2/2	90%	0	✓
Tari Eason▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	1	✓
Tari Eason▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	30%	1	✓
Tari Eason▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	—	40%	2	✓
Tari Eason▼	P+R	15.5	UNDER	71%HIGH	2/2	80%	16	✗
Tari Eason▼	PRA	17.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	17	✓
Tari Eason▼	R+A	7.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	7	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PRA14.5OVER12%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)11/2055%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge changed +0.035▼

P+R14.5UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%▼

PTS8.5UNDER34%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%▼

REB5.5OVER18%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)13/2065%+12.4% edgePrediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted +0.311▼

P+A9.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (8/20)10/2050%▼

R+A7.5OVER0%gbt_raAvoid (7/20)UNDER 3x11/2055%▼

Featured Pick

Tari Eason

Points UNDER 9.5HIGH

This is the clearest signal in the data because his last 5 scoring average is 5.4 and his last 10 is 6.2, both far below the 9.5 number. He also posted just 5 points in the most recent game vs LAL, so the current form and head-to-head both support the under.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Luka Dončić	3	14	16	38%	46%
LeBron James	3	6	4	50%	50%
Marcus Smart	3	4	4	40%	40%
Austin Reaves	3	3	2	0%	0%
Deandre Ayton	3	3	6	75%	75%

pointsUNDER 9.574%HIGH

His last 5 and last 10 scoring averages are 5.4 and 6.2, both well below the 9.5 line. He also scored only 5 points in the most recent LAL matchup.

reboundsOVER 5.569%MEDIUM

He has cleared this style of rebound line with season average 6.3 RPG, last 5 at 6.8, and last 10 at 6.9. The most recent game vs LAL had 9 rebounds in 33 minutes.

assistsOVER 1.557%MEDIUM

His season mean is 1.64 assists and his recent mean is 2.0, which supports a modest over. The volatility is high, so this is weaker than the rebound angle.

threesUNDER 1.572%HIGH

He averages 1.66 threes per game for the season, but just 0.3 over the last 10 and 0.0 over the last 5. The recent trend is clearly down despite the season baseline.

stealsUNDER 1.562%MEDIUM

He averages 1.2 steals on the season, but the 1.5 line is still a high ask given his recent 1.4 over the last 5. This is playable, but not as strong as the points under.

blocksOVER 0.555%MEDIUM

His season block average is exactly 0.5, so this is a thin over based on baseline volume. Recent block production is down, so confidence stays moderate to low.

stocksOVER 1.563%MEDIUM

He averages 1.75 stocks on the season and 1.7 over the last 10, which supports clearing a 1.5-type threshold. This is one of the cleaner combo-style indicators in his profile.

prUNDER 15.571%HIGH

His recent scoring has slipped enough that pairing it with rebounds does not comfortably reach 15.5. Even with decent rebound volume, the 5.4 PPG last 5 makes the under appealing.

praUNDER 17.568%MEDIUM

His recent combined production is limited by the drop in points, and his last 10 assists are only 2.0. The rebound base helps, but not enough to make 17.5 a strong over.

raOVER 7.561%MEDIUM

He has 6.3 RPG season and 1.6 APG season, with away rebound/assist splits of 6.82 and 2.1. That combination gives him a reasonable path to 8+ combined rebounds and assists.

timelineUNDER 9.5 PTS