AI Model:

Alex Sarr—

WAS · C

PPG

16.9

RPG

7.5

APG

2.6

L5 PPG

13.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-3.5

16.9

13.4

RPG-1.3

7.5

6.2

APG-1.2

2.6

1.4

SPG+0.2

0.8

1.0

BPG-0.2

2.0

1.8

OVER 13.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

13.5

POR

2026-01-27

2026-01-27 vs POR: 29 pts

MIL

2026-01-29

2026-01-29 vs MIL: 16 pts

LAL

2026-01-30

2026-01-30 vs LAL: 16 pts

NYK

2026-02-03

2026-02-03 vs NYK: 11 pts

DET

2026-02-05

2026-02-05 vs DET: 12 pts

MIA

2026-02-08

2026-02-08 vs MIA: 12 pts

NOP

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs NOP: 7 pts

MIA

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MIA: 28 pts

ORL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs ORL: 16 pts

BOS

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs BOS: 4 pts

Over 13.5

Under 13.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 13.5DRAFTKINGS

52%

REB

OVER 5.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

AST

OVER 2.5

51%

3PM

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

BLK

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

STL+BLK

UNDER 3.5

55%

P+R

UNDER 18.5DRAFTKINGS

57%

R+A

UNDER 13.5

61%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

17.3

14.9

RPG

8.1

5.8

APG

3.2

1.2

vs DET (H2H)5 games

PPG

11.6

RPG

7.2

APG

2.2

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jalen Duren	3	15	47%	-1.7%	medium
Moussa Diabaté	3	15	100%	+51.6%	medium
Wendell Carter Jr.	3	14	86%	+24.3%	medium
Neemias Queta	2	14	92%

Home spot helps, but minutes and injury risk keep Sarr’s ceiling in check

Alex Sarr has been a steady two-way contributor overall, averaging 16.9 points, 7.5 rebounds, 2.6 assists, and 2.0 blocks across 44 games. His recent production is softer than his season line, with 13.4 points and 21.8 minutes over the last 5 compared to 16.0 points and 26.1 minutes over the last 20, and he is listed questionable with a left big toe issue. At home he’s been better than away at 17.3 points, 8.1 rebounds, and 3.2 assists per game, but the current injury tag and recent minute dip make his overs less attractive than usual. Detroit has also held him to 11.6 points and 7.2 rebounds across 5 career meetings.

Stat Trends

PPG

13.4(↓ from 16.9)

RPG

6.2(↓ from 7.5)

APG

1.4(↓ from 2.6)

BPG

1.8(→ from 2.0)

Stocks

2.8(→ from 2.9)

Key Matchup

He has no specific defender matchup data listed, so there is no specific defender matchup data. Detroit’s overall profile shows a 109.87 defensive rating with pace at 100, plus negative scoring and three-point suppression, while Sarr’s own history vs this opponent is just 11.6 points and 7.2 rebounds over 5 games.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Alex Sarr▼	Points	13.5	OVER	52%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	2	✗
Alex Sarr▼	Rebounds	5.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	3	✗
Alex Sarr▼	Assists	2.5	OVER	51%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	2	✗
Alex Sarr▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	0	✓
Alex Sarr▼	Blocks	1.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	2	✓
Alex Sarr▼	STL+BLK	3.5	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	—	80%	2	✓
Alex Sarr▼	P+R	18.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	5	✓
Alex Sarr▼	R+A	13.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	5	✓

ML Scout Analysis

P+R22UNDER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 5x9/2045%▼

P+A17UNDER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (13/20)9/2045%▼

R+A9UNDER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 2x8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

Alex Sarr

Rebounds OVER 5.5MEDIUM

This is the cleanest number on the board because Sarr’s season average is 7.5 rebounds and his home average is 8.1, both comfortably above the line. The recent 6.2 rebound average and questionable injury tag prevent this from being a high-confidence play, but the margin over 5.5 is still strong.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jalen Duren	3	15	22	47%	47%
Cade Cunningham	2	3	16	38%	42%
Paul Reed	1	3	2	100%	100%
Isaiah Stewart	1	3	0	0%	0%
Daniss Jenkins	2	1	0	0%	0%

pointsOVER 13.552%MEDIUM

His season average is 16.9 points and his home average is 17.3, both above 13.5. The concern is that his last 5 are down to 13.4 points and his questionable toe status could keep minutes closer to the 21.8 mark from that span.

reboundsOVER 5.556%MEDIUM

Sarr averages 7.5 rebounds on the season and 8.1 at home, which clears 5.5 comfortably. Even with recent softness at 6.2 over the last 5, the rebound floor is still strong relative to this line.

assistsOVER 2.551%MEDIUM

His season assist average is 2.6 and his home mean is 3.2, so 2.5 is a modest bar. Still, his last 5 are only 1.4 assists and the recent minute dip lowers confidence.

threesUNDER 1.560%MEDIUM

He averages 1.07 threes per game on the season and only 0.95 at home, both below 1.5. The matchup also points to fewer made threes than his recent 1.4 clip would suggest.

blocksOVER 1.558%MEDIUM

Sarr averages 2.0 blocks per game and has 1.8 over the last 5, so 1.5 is reachable even if minutes are trimmed. His shot-blocking remains one of his most reliable categories.

stocksUNDER 3.555%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 2.89 and the last 5 are 2.8, both short of 3.5. This is a higher-variance combo and his recent minute dip makes the under the better side.

prUNDER 18.557%MEDIUM

Sarr’s season points plus rebounds average is 24.4, but recent form has slid to 19.6 when combining his last 5 points and rebounds. Detroit has also limited him to 11.6 points and 7.2 rebounds across 5 meetings, which supports the under.

raUNDER 13.561%MEDIUM

His season rebounds plus assists average is 10.1, so 13.5 is well above baseline. Even his home split of 11.3 is still below this number, making the under the clear lean.

timelineOVER 13.5 PTS