AI Model:

Ausar Thompson▼

DET · SF

PPG

10.0

RPG

5.8

APG

2.9

L5 PPG

7.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-3.0

10.0

7.0

RPG-0.8

5.8

5.0

APG-0.1

2.9

2.8

SPG-0.4

1.8

1.4

BPG+0.4

0.8

1.2

UNDER 10.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

10.5

NYK

2026-02-19

2026-02-19 vs NYK: 10 pts

CHI

2026-02-21

2026-02-21 vs CHI: 8 pts

SAS

2026-02-23

2026-02-23 vs SAS: 8 pts

OKC

2026-02-25

2026-02-25 vs OKC: 11 pts

CLE

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs CLE: 18 pts

ORL

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs ORL: 9 pts

CLE

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs CLE: 16 pts

SAS

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs SAS: 0 pts

TOR

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs TOR: 4 pts

WAS

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs WAS: 6 pts

Over 10.5

Under 10.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 10.5FANDUEL

67%

REB

UNDER 6.5FANDUEL

64%

AST

UNDER 3.5FANDUEL

58%

3PM

UNDER 0.5

85%

STL

UNDER 1.5FANDUEL

56%

BLK

OVER 0.5BETMGM

62%

STL+BLK

UNDER 3

55%

OVER 1.5

60%

PRA

UNDER 21.5FANDUEL

63%

P+A

UNDER 14.5FANDUEL

61%

P+R

UNDER 17.5FANDUEL

59%

R+A

UNDER 10.5FANDUEL

68%

UNDER 0.5

74%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

9.5

7.5

RPG

5.9

5.1

APG

3.8

3.4

vs WAS (H2H)7 games

PPG

10.7

RPG

5.6

APG

1.6

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Payton Pritchard	4	25	54%	-16.4%	medium
Jalen Johnson	4	16	61%	+5.0%	medium
Desmond Bane	4	14	63%	-2.1%	medium
Luka Dončić	2	13	45%

Ausar’s counting stats are cooling, but the defensive playmaking keeps his floor alive

Ausar Thompson’s recent scoring has dipped to 7.0 PPG over his last 5 and 9.0 over his last 10, both below his season mark of 10.0 PPG, while his minutes have also fallen to 21.0 in the last 5. His best statistical edge remains in stocks, where he sits at 1.8 SPG and 0.8 BPG for the season and has averaged 2.7 stocks over the last 10. Washington’s team context is favorable for production with a 124.04 defensive rating and 100 pace, but his recent game log against this opponent was only 6 points, 7 rebounds, and 2 assists in 27 minutes. With multiple books showing his points around 10.5 and rebounds around 6.5, the market is asking him to clear numbers that are slightly above his recent form.

Stat Trends

PPG

7.0(↓ from 10.0)

RPG

5.0(↓ from 5.8)

APG

2.8(→ from 2.9)

Stocks

2.6(→ from 2.7)

Key Matchup

The data does not provide specific defender matchup data, so there is no specific defender matchup data. Washington’s opponent profile is favorable for pace and offense, but Detroit still has to navigate a game environment where Ausar’s recent minutes and usage have been softer.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Ausar Thompson▼	Points	10.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	10	✓
Ausar Thompson▼	Rebounds	6.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	9	✗
Ausar Thompson▼	Assists	3.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	3	✓
Ausar Thompson▼	3PM	0.5	UNDER	85%HIGH	—	100%	0	✓
Ausar Thompson▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	1	✓
Ausar Thompson▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	62%MEDIUM	—	60%	2	✓
Ausar Thompson▼	STL+BLK	3	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	—	70%	3	✗
Ausar Thompson▼	Turnovers	1.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	—	30%	2	✓
Ausar Thompson▼	PRA	21.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	22	✗
Ausar Thompson▼	P+A	14.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	13	✓
Ausar Thompson▼	P+R	17.5	UNDER	59%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	19	✗
Ausar Thompson▼	R+A	10.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	12	✗
Ausar Thompson▼	Double-Double	0.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	—	—	—	—

ML Scout Analysis

P+A13.5UNDER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (13/20)OVER 3x8/1942%▼

R+A9.5UNDER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x9/1947%▼

P+R15UNDER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)7/1937%▼

Featured Pick

Ausar Thompson

Points UNDER 10.5HIGH

This is the cleanest read because his season average is 10.02 PPG, his last 5 is down to 7.0, and his last 10 is 9.0. The recent minutes drop to 21.0 adds another layer of caution, making the under the strongest single position.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Bub Carrington	3	10	11	44%	61%
Sharife Cooper	3	6	4	50%	50%
Will Riley	3	5	13	42%	54%
Kyshawn George	1	3	5	100%	125%
Jaden Hardy	2	3	2	33%	33%

pointsUNDER 10.567%MEDIUM

His season mean is 10.02 PPG, but his last 5 is only 7.0 and his last 10 is 9.0. With recent minutes at 21.0 and a down trend, 10.5 is a slightly inflated ask.

reboundsUNDER 6.564%MEDIUM

He averages 5.8 rebounds for the season and 4.9 over the last 5, both below 6.5. The recent dip in playing time also works against an over.

assistsUNDER 3.558%MEDIUM

His season mean is 2.92 assists and his last 5 is 2.8, so 3.5 requires an above-average outcome. The recent-game distribution is volatile, which lowers confidence in the over.

threesUNDER 0.585%HIGH

He averages only 0.1 threes per game for the season and 0.0 over the last 5. With no meaningful 3-point volume, the under is the clear side.

stealsUNDER 1.556%MEDIUM

He is an elite steals contributor at 1.8 per game, but the 1.5 line is still high enough to create variance. Given the strong over-bias warning and his recent 1.4 steals over the last 5, the under is the safer lean.

blocksOVER 0.562%MEDIUM

He averages 0.8 blocks per game and 1.2 over the last 5, so a 0.5 line is well below his season production. This is one of the cleaner overs on the board.

stocksUNDER 355%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 2.69 and the last 10 is 2.7, so a 3.0 line sits slightly above baseline. Because combo-style variance is high, the under has the better profile.

turnoversOVER 1.560%MEDIUM

He averages 2.0+ turnovers in meaningful samples from the recent logs and has 1.3 per game over the last 10. A 1.5 line is modest relative to his ball-handling usage.

praUNDER 21.563%MEDIUM

His season PRA components sum to about 18.7 (10.0 + 5.8 + 2.9), and his recent form has not reached 21.5 consistently. Combo props are higher variance, so the under fits the conservative approach.

paUNDER 14.561%MEDIUM

His season points plus assists profile is 12.9 on average, and the last 5 production is not strong enough to justify 14.5. The recent dip in scoring is the key limiter.

prUNDER 17.559%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds average is 15.8, below the 17.5 line. He would need a clear outlier scoring night or a stronger rebounding game than recent form suggests.

raUNDER 10.568%MEDIUM

He averages 8.7 rebounds plus assists on the season, and the last 5 sits at 7.8 combined. The 10.5 line is meaningfully above both his season and recent baselines.

double_doubleUNDER 0.574%HIGH

He has strong all-around production, but his season averages are 10.0 points and 5.8 rebounds, not a consistent double-double profile. With recent scoring down and rebounds below the threshold, the under is favored.

timelineUNDER 10.5 PTS