Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrese Maxey | 4 | 15 | 72% | +19.0% | medium |
| Jamal Murray | 2 | 14 | 71% | +22.2% | low |
| Reed Sheppard | 2 | 11 | 93% | +29.3% | low |
| T.J. McConnell | 3 | 10 | 100% |
Bub Carrington is trending up on recent scoring, with 12.0 PPG over his last 5 compared to 9.9 for the season, but that comes with a volatile scoring profile and a 25.4 recent MPG baseline. His season-long production is more modest at 9.9 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 4.6 assists, and his recent 11.0 PPG over the last 10 is still only a small edge over his season number. The matchup history is interesting because he averaged 15.833333333333334 PPG in 6 games vs Detroit, but the current market line at 10.5 points is close to his season mean and the game environment does not create a clear blowout or pace boost. With his home scoring at 11.6 PPG and Detroit allowing a playable environment, points are live, but the broader profile still supports a conservative read on the combo props.
No specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders. Detroit's opponent profile is neutral-to-friendly for scoring with a 109.87 defensive rating and a 100 pace, while the three-point suppression mark of -1.145 does not strongly discourage his perimeter volume.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bub Carrington▼ | Points | 10.5 | OVER | 58%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 60% | 10 | ✗ |
Bub Carrington▼ | Rebounds | 3.5 | UNDER | 60%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% | 6 | ✗ |
Bub Carrington▼ | Assists | 3.5 | OVER | 64%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 70% | 4 | ✓ |
Bub Carrington▼ | 3PM | 1.5 | OVER | 61%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 60% | 1 | ✗ |
Bub Carrington▼ | Steals | 0.5 | OVER | 52%MEDIUM | — | 50% | 0 | ✗ |
Bub Carrington▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | UNDER | 66%MEDIUM | — | 90% | 0 | ✓ |
Bub Carrington▼ | Turnovers | 2 | UNDER | 63%MEDIUM | — | 90% | 3 | ✗ |
Bub Carrington▼ | P+R | 13.5 | UNDER | 57%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 40% | 16 | ✗ |
Bub Carrington▼ | P+A | 14.5 | UNDER | 55%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 40% | 14 | ✓ |
Bub Carrington▼ | R+A | 7.5 | UNDER | 59%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 40% | 10 | ✗ |
This is the cleanest number on the board relative to his production: 4.57 assists per game for the season, 4.2 over the last 10, and 4.4 over the last 5. Unlike his points prop, the assist line is consistently below both his season and recent averages, making it the most stable over target.
| medium |
| LaMelo Ball | 4 | 10 | 77% | +17.9% | medium |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniss Jenkins | 3 | 9 | 14 | 63% | 75% |
| Duncan Robinson | 4 | 7 | 5 | 50% | 63% |
| Ausar Thompson | 3 | 7 | 4 | 100% | 100% |
| Cade Cunningham | 3 | 5 | 14 | 36% | 41% |
| Ronald Holland II | 4 | 4 | 2 | 100% | 100% |
His season mean is 9.93, but he has averaged 12.0 points over his last 5 and 15.833333333333334 PPG in 6 games vs Detroit. The over is still only moderate confidence because the recent edge is not huge and his scoring variance is high with a 5.48 season standard deviation.
He averages 3.63 rebounds for the season and 3.1 over the last 10, which sits slightly below the 3.5 line. His recent and season rebounding profiles both point to a small under lean.
Carrington averages 4.57 assists on the season and 4.2 over the last 10, both above the 3.5 line. The assists profile is one of his steadier categories, with the season and recent means staying comfortably above the market.
He averages 1.93 made threes per game on the season and 1.7 over the last 10, both above 1.5. Home production is also supportive at 2.09 FG3M per game.
His season average is 0.6 steals per game, which is just enough to support the over on a 0.5 line. Confidence is limited because the sample is modest and steal outcomes remain volatile.
He averages 0.81 stocks for the season and 0.8 over the last 10, well below a 1.5 threshold. This is a stronger under than his single-stock markets because his combined defensive events are not close to that number.
His recent turnover numbers are 1.8 over the last 5 and 1.5 over the last 10, which sit below a 2.0 projected line. The only caution is that his away split runs higher at 2.3, but tonight is at home.
He averages 9.9 points and 3.6 rebounds, so a 13.5 points-rebounds line is right on the edge of his normal output. Because combo props are more volatile and his season scoring is modest, the under is the safer lean.
His season points plus assists profile is 14.5 on the nose from the provided averages, which makes this a thin market. Given combo-prop caution and regression risk relative to his 12.0 PPG last 5, the under gets the nod.
He combines for 13.5 rebounds plus assists by season average, but the market line is for rebounds plus assists alone at 7.5 and his rebound base is only 3.6. This is still a competitive number, but the rebound side keeps it from being an over target.