AI Model:

Bub Carrington▲

WAS · PG

PPG

9.9

RPG

3.6

APG

4.6

L5 PPG

12.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+2.1

9.9

12.0

RPG-0.4

3.6

3.2

APG-0.2

4.6

4.4

SPG-0.2

0.6

0.4

BPG0.0

0.2

OVER 10.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

10.5

TOR

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs TOR: 12 pts

HOU

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs HOU: 11 pts

ORL

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs ORL: 11 pts

UTA

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs UTA: 7 pts

NOP

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs NOP: 9 pts

MIA

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MIA: 12 pts

ORL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs ORL: 12 pts

BOS

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs BOS: 2 pts

GSW

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs GSW: 4 pts

DET

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs DET: 30 pts

Over 10.5

Under 10.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 10.5STAKE

58%

REB

UNDER 3.5STAKE

60%

AST

OVER 3.5STAKE

64%

3PM

OVER 1.5

61%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

52%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

66%

UNDER 2

63%

P+R

UNDER 13.5STAKE

57%

P+A

UNDER 14.5STAKE

55%

R+A

UNDER 7.5STAKE

59%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

11.6

8.2

RPG

2.9

3.8

APG

3.2

5.2

vs DET (H2H)6 games

PPG

15.8

RPG

3.5

APG

3.3

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Tyrese Maxey	4	15	72%	+19.0%	medium
Jamal Murray	2	14	71%	+22.2%	low
Reed Sheppard	2	11	93%	+29.3%	low
T.J. McConnell	3	10	100%

Carrington’s minutes are steady, but the projection leans cautious against Detroit

Bub Carrington is trending up on recent scoring, with 12.0 PPG over his last 5 compared to 9.9 for the season, but that comes with a volatile scoring profile and a 25.4 recent MPG baseline. His season-long production is more modest at 9.9 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 4.6 assists, and his recent 11.0 PPG over the last 10 is still only a small edge over his season number. The matchup history is interesting because he averaged 15.833333333333334 PPG in 6 games vs Detroit, but the current market line at 10.5 points is close to his season mean and the game environment does not create a clear blowout or pace boost. With his home scoring at 11.6 PPG and Detroit allowing a playable environment, points are live, but the broader profile still supports a conservative read on the combo props.

Stat Trends

PPG

12.0(↑ from 9.9)

RPG

3.2(↓ from 3.6)

APG

4.4(→ from 4.6)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders. Detroit's opponent profile is neutral-to-friendly for scoring with a 109.87 defensive rating and a 100 pace, while the three-point suppression mark of -1.145 does not strongly discourage his perimeter volume.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Bub Carrington▼	Points	10.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	10	✗
Bub Carrington▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	6	✗
Bub Carrington▼	Assists	3.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	4	✓
Bub Carrington▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	1	✗
Bub Carrington▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	52%MEDIUM	—	50%	0	✗
Bub Carrington▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	—	90%	0	✓
Bub Carrington▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	—	90%	3	✗
Bub Carrington▼	P+R	13.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	16	✗
Bub Carrington▼	P+A	14.5	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	14	✓
Bub Carrington▼	R+A	7.5	UNDER	59%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	10	✗

ML Scout Analysis

P+A16UNDER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (14/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

P+R14.5OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (13/20)10/2050%▼

R+A7OVER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

Featured Pick

Bub Carrington

Assists OVER 3.5HIGH

This is the cleanest number on the board relative to his production: 4.57 assists per game for the season, 4.2 over the last 10, and 4.4 over the last 5. Unlike his points prop, the assist line is consistently below both his season and recent averages, making it the most stable over target.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Daniss Jenkins	3	9	14	63%	75%
Duncan Robinson	4	7	5	50%	63%
Ausar Thompson	3	7	4	100%	100%
Cade Cunningham	3	5	14	36%	41%
Ronald Holland II	4	4	2	100%	100%

pointsOVER 10.558%MEDIUM

His season mean is 9.93, but he has averaged 12.0 points over his last 5 and 15.833333333333334 PPG in 6 games vs Detroit. The over is still only moderate confidence because the recent edge is not huge and his scoring variance is high with a 5.48 season standard deviation.

reboundsUNDER 3.560%MEDIUM

He averages 3.63 rebounds for the season and 3.1 over the last 10, which sits slightly below the 3.5 line. His recent and season rebounding profiles both point to a small under lean.

assistsOVER 3.564%MEDIUM

Carrington averages 4.57 assists on the season and 4.2 over the last 10, both above the 3.5 line. The assists profile is one of his steadier categories, with the season and recent means staying comfortably above the market.

threesOVER 1.561%MEDIUM

He averages 1.93 made threes per game on the season and 1.7 over the last 10, both above 1.5. Home production is also supportive at 2.09 FG3M per game.

stealsOVER 0.552%MEDIUM

His season average is 0.6 steals per game, which is just enough to support the over on a 0.5 line. Confidence is limited because the sample is modest and steal outcomes remain volatile.

stocksUNDER 1.566%MEDIUM

He averages 0.81 stocks for the season and 0.8 over the last 10, well below a 1.5 threshold. This is a stronger under than his single-stock markets because his combined defensive events are not close to that number.

turnoversUNDER 263%MEDIUM

His recent turnover numbers are 1.8 over the last 5 and 1.5 over the last 10, which sit below a 2.0 projected line. The only caution is that his away split runs higher at 2.3, but tonight is at home.

prUNDER 13.557%MEDIUM

He averages 9.9 points and 3.6 rebounds, so a 13.5 points-rebounds line is right on the edge of his normal output. Because combo props are more volatile and his season scoring is modest, the under is the safer lean.

paUNDER 14.555%MEDIUM

His season points plus assists profile is 14.5 on the nose from the provided averages, which makes this a thin market. Given combo-prop caution and regression risk relative to his 12.0 PPG last 5, the under gets the nod.

raUNDER 7.559%MEDIUM

He combines for 13.5 rebounds plus assists by season average, but the market line is for rebounds plus assists alone at 7.5 and his rebound base is only 3.6. This is still a competitive number, but the rebound side keeps it from being an over target.

timelineOVER 10.5 PTS