AI Model:

Duncan Robinson▼

DET · SG

PPG

11.8

RPG

2.7

APG

2.0

L5 PPG

11.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-0.4

11.8

11.4

RPG+0.7

2.7

3.4

APG+1.0

2.0

3.0

SPG-0.4

0.6

0.2

BPG-0.3

0.3

0.0

UNDER 11.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

11.5

ORL

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs ORL: 0 pts

CLE

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs CLE: 8 pts

SAS

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs SAS: 11 pts

BKN

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs BKN: 15 pts

MIA

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs MIA: 3 pts

BKN

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs BKN: 15 pts

PHI

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs PHI: 19 pts

MEM

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs MEM: 14 pts

TOR

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs TOR: 1 pts

WAS

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs WAS: 8 pts

Over 11.5

Under 11.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 11.5FANDUEL

67%

REB

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

54%

AST

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

62%

3PM

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

64%

STL

UNDER 0.5STAKE

61%

BLK

UNDER 0.5BETMGM

72%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

70%

UNDER 2

73%

P+R

UNDER 14.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

P+A

UNDER 14.5BETMGM

63%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

15.0

9.4

RPG

2.7

2.8

APG

3.1

2.0

vs WAS (H2H)16 games

PPG

11.4

RPG

2.6

APG

1.8

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Isaac Okoro	4	17	0%	-44.8%	medium
Sam Merrill	3	15	69%	+5.2%	medium
Tre Johnson	3	14	64%	+12.3%	medium
Ben Sheppard	3	13	14%

Home split points upside, but recent form points to a conservative Robinson read

Duncan Robinson is averaging 11.8 PPG on the season, but his last 10 games are down to 9.4 PPG and his recent minutes have dipped to 24.7 from a season average of 27.6. The home split is the main boost here, with 15.0 PPG at home compared to 9.4 away, and he also averages 3.7 made threes at home. Against Washington, his history is solid but not explosive at 11.4375 PPG across 16 games, so the current profile leans more toward moderate production than a ceiling game.

Stat Trends

PPG

11.4(↓ from 11.8)

RPG

3.4(↑ from 2.7)

APG

3.0(↑ from 2.0)

3PM

2.2(↓ from 2.8)

Key Matchup

Washington's opponent defense data shows a 124.04 defensive rating, pace of 100, and scoring suppression of 1.983, which is a workable environment for offense but not an automatic ceiling spot. There is also no specific defender matchup data for Robinson from the provided information.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Duncan Robinson▼	Points	11.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	14	✗
Duncan Robinson▼	Rebounds	2.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	5	✓
Duncan Robinson▼	Assists	1.5	OVER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	2	✓
Duncan Robinson▼	3PM	2.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	4	✗
Duncan Robinson▼	Steals	0.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	—	70%	0	✓
Duncan Robinson▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	—	80%	1	✗
Duncan Robinson▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	—	90%	1	✓
Duncan Robinson▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	73%HIGH	—	100%	2	✗
Duncan Robinson▼	P+R	14.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	19	✗
Duncan Robinson▼	P+A	14.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	16	✗

ML Scout Analysis

P+A14UNDER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (13/20)9/2045%▼

R+A5.5UNDER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)8/2040%▼

P+R14UNDER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Duncan Robinson

Assists OVER 1.5MEDIUM

This is the cleanest over on the board because his season average is 2.03 assists and his recent form is even stronger at 2.7 over the last 5 and 2.7 over the last 10. The line is low enough that even with reduced recent minutes, he still projects above it more often than not.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Tre Johnson	3	14	18	57%	64%
Bub Carrington	4	5	11	56%	56%
Bilal Coulibaly	1	5	0	0%	0%
Justin Champagnie	2	4	2	100%	100%
Will Riley	3	4	4	50%	50%

pointsUNDER 11.567%MEDIUM

His season mean is 11.8, but the last 10 are only 9.4 and his away scoring is 9.4, which makes 11.5 a slightly high ask. The home split helps, but the recent minutes dip to 24.7 keeps the projection closer to the line than above it.

reboundsOVER 2.554%MEDIUM

He averages 2.7 rebounds on the season and 2.8 over the last 10, so 2.5 is a reachable number. The edge is modest because his rebound role is low-variance but not especially strong.

assistsOVER 1.562%MEDIUM

Robinson is at 2.03 APG for the season and 2.7 over the last 5, with 2.7 assists per game in his last 10. That gives him a comfortable cushion over 1.5 even with recent minutes coming down.

threesUNDER 2.564%MEDIUM

He averages 2.79 made threes for the season, but only 1.9 over the last 10 and 2.2 over the last 5. Since the line sits at 2.5, the recent trend and lower away rate of 1.8 FG3M make the under slightly more appealing.

stealsUNDER 0.561%MEDIUM

His season average is 0.6 steals, but the last 5 drop to 0.2 and the last 10 are 0.4. With limited defensive event volume, the under is the more stable side.

blocksUNDER 0.572%HIGH

He averages just 0.3 blocks per game on the season and 0.3 over the last 10. At a 0.5 line, he needs an above-average defensive event game to clear it.

stocksUNDER 1.570%HIGH

His season stocks average is 0.89, and the last 10 sit at 0.7. That is well below a 1.5 threshold, making the under the clear lean.

turnoversUNDER 273%HIGH

He is only at 0.6 turnovers per game on the season and 0.4 over the last 5 and last 10. With that low baseline, 2.0 is far above expectation.

prUNDER 14.558%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds profile is 14.48 using 11.8 PPG and 2.68 RPG, so the number is right on the edge. Given the downtrend in points and the lower recent minutes, the under gets the nod.

paUNDER 14.563%MEDIUM

He averages 2.03 assists, so to beat 14.5 on points plus assists he likely needs a scoring spike. The recent 9.4 PPG last 10 and 24.7 minutes recently make that less likely.

timelineUNDER 11.5 PTS

Defensive Matchup Profile

Home split points upside, but recent form points to a conservative Robinson read

Stat Trends

Key Matchup

Prop Analysis

ML Scout Analysis

Featured Pick

UNDER 11.5 PTS