AI Model:

Jalen Duren▲

DET · C

PPG

19.0

RPG

10.6

APG

1.7

L5 PPG

25.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+6.2

19.0

25.2

RPG-0.8

10.6

9.8

APG-0.5

1.7

1.2

SPG-0.3

0.9

0.6

BPG+0.3

0.9

1.2

UNDER 23.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

23.5

ORL

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs ORL: 16 pts

CLE

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs CLE: 24 pts

SAS

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs SAS: 7 pts

BKN

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs BKN: 17 pts

MIA

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs MIA: 24 pts

BKN

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs BKN: 26 pts

PHI

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs PHI: 14 pts

MEM

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs MEM: 30 pts

TOR

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs TOR: 20 pts

WAS

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs WAS: 36 pts

Over 23.5

Under 23.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 23.5DRAFTKINGS

62%

REB

UNDER 11.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

AST

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

54%

3PM

UNDER 0

95%

STL

OVER 0.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

BLK

OVER 0.5BETMGM

55%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

57%

OVER 1

53%

PRA

UNDER 36.5BETMGM

60%

P+A

UNDER 24.5BETMGM

61%

P+R

UNDER 35.5DRAFTKINGS

59%

R+A

OVER 13.5BETMGM

55%

OVER 0.5

64%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

21.3

21.6

RPG

12.0

9.6

APG

1.6

1.8

vs WAS (H2H)12 games

PPG

15.0

RPG

12.4

APG

1.4

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Nic Claxton	4	27	57%	-7.5%	medium
Onyeka Okongwu	4	25	61%	-12.0%	medium
Neemias Queta	3	23	71%	+6.8%	medium
Wendell Carter Jr.	4	23	75%

Duren’s scoring surge meets a favorable matchup, but the market is high

Jalen Duren is in strong form, averaging 25.2 PPG over his last 5 games versus 19.0 PPG on the season, while still producing 9.8 RPG and 1.8 stocks. His recent spike is meaningful, but several books have moved his points line to 23.5 and his PRA into the mid-30s, which sits well above his season baseline. He also just posted 36 points and 11 rebounds against Washington on 2026-03-17, so the matchup has already shown upside. The main caution is regression, since his last-5 scoring is more than 20% above season average and combo props carry extra variance.

Stat Trends

PPG

25.2(↑ from 19.0)

RPG

9.8(→ from 10.6)

APG

1.2(↓ from 1.7)

Key Matchup

The provided defensive data shows Washington with a 124.04 defensive rating and 100 pace, which supports scoring opportunities. There is no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, but Duren already produced 36 points and 11 rebounds in the most recent game versus Washington.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Jalen Duren▼	Points	23.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	24	✗
Jalen Duren▼	Rebounds	11.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	11	✓
Jalen Duren▼	Assists	1.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	0	✗
Jalen Duren▼	3PM	0	UNDER	95%HIGH	—	100%	0	✗
Jalen Duren▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	—	40%	2	✓
Jalen Duren▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	80%	0	✗
Jalen Duren▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	40%	2	✓
Jalen Duren▼	Turnovers	1	OVER	53%MEDIUM	—	20%	1	✗
Jalen Duren▼	PRA	36.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	35	✓
Jalen Duren▼	P+A	24.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	24	✓
Jalen Duren▼	P+R	35.5	UNDER	59%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	35	✓
Jalen Duren▼	R+A	13.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	2/2	20%	11	✗
Jalen Duren▼	Double-Double	0.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	—	—	—	—

ML Scout Analysis

R+A12.5OVER0%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%▼

P+A24UNDER0%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

P+R32UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

Jalen Duren

Double-double OVER 0.5HIGH

Duren’s season averages of 19.0 points and 10.6 rebounds make the double-double threshold very reachable. He also just recorded a 36-point, 11-rebound game against Washington, and his role as a starter keeps the path to 10+ boards and enough points intact.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Alex Sarr	3	19	20	43%	48%
Anthony Gill	3	5	3	100%	100%
Justin Champagnie	3	3	5	33%	42%
Tristan Vukcevic	2	3	0	0%	0%
Marvin Bagley III	1	3	3	50%	75%

pointsUNDER 23.562%MEDIUM

His season mean is 19.03 points, while 23.5 is well above that baseline and his last-5 25.2 is likely to regress. Even with the recent 36-point game against Washington, the market is pricing in a peak stretch rather than his typical output.

reboundsUNDER 11.558%MEDIUM

Duren averages 10.6 rebounds on the season and 9.9 over the last 10, both below 11.5. His home split is stronger at 12.0 RPG, but the season baseline still leaves less room than the line suggests.

assistsOVER 1.554%MEDIUM

He averages 1.69 assists for the season and 1.77 away, which is slightly above 1.5. The volatility is real, but the line is modest relative to his average.

threesUNDER 095%HIGH

He averages 0.0 threes season-long, with 0.0 in the last 5, last 10, and last 20. There is no 3-point volume to support an over.

stealsOVER 0.556%MEDIUM

His season average is 0.9 steals and his last 20 is 0.8, both above the 0.5 line. The recent 0.6 over the last 5 is lower, but the baseline still supports the over.

blocksOVER 0.555%MEDIUM

He averages 0.9 blocks on the season and 1.2 over the last 5 and last 10, so 0.5 is a reachable threshold. The variance is moderate, but the recent rim-protection form is solid.

stocksOVER 1.557%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.72 and recent mean is 1.8, both above 1.5. With steals and blocks both live, this combo has enough support despite natural volatility.

turnoversOVER 153%MEDIUM

He is at 1.1 turnovers over the last 20 and 1.2 over the last 10, which points slightly above 1.0. His usage has been active enough to create turnover chances.

praUNDER 36.560%MEDIUM

His season profile of 19.03 points, 10.6 rebounds, and 1.69 assists projects below 36.5 in a neutral expectation. PRA is a high-variance combo, and the current line is elevated relative to his season average output.

paUNDER 24.561%MEDIUM

He averages 19.03 points and 1.69 assists, which totals well below 24.5 without a major scoring spike. His assist baseline is too low to comfortably push this over.

prUNDER 35.559%MEDIUM

His season point-rebound profile sits at 29.63 combined, and even his recent scoring surge does not fully justify 35.5. This is a big number for a center whose rebound average is 10.6 and scoring mean is 19.0.

raOVER 13.555%MEDIUM

He averages 10.6 rebounds and 1.69 assists for 12.29 combined, with a stronger 13.27 home rebound-assist profile from the split data. The line is close enough that a standard Duren double-double type game can push it over.

double_doubleOVER 0.564%MEDIUM

He averages 19.0 points and 10.6 rebounds, which gives him clear double-double potential. He also had 36 points and 11 rebounds in the most recent game against Washington, reinforcing that this is a realistic outcome.

timelineUNDER 23.5 PTS