AI Model:

Tobias Harris▲

DET · PF

PPG

13.2

RPG

5.2

APG

2.3

L5 PPG

11.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-1.4

13.2

11.8

RPG-1.4

5.2

3.8

APG+0.3

2.3

2.6

SPG-0.7

0.9

0.2

BPG+0.7

0.3

1.0

UNDER 14.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

14.5

CLE

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs CLE: 11 pts

ORL

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs ORL: 23 pts

CLE

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs CLE: 19 pts

SAS

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs SAS: 11 pts

BKN

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs BKN: 18 pts

MIA

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs MIA: 9 pts

BKN

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs BKN: 2 pts

PHI

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs PHI: 15 pts

TOR

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs TOR: 21 pts

WAS

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs WAS: 12 pts

Over 14.5

Under 14.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 14.5FANDUEL

63%

REB

UNDER 5.5FANDUEL

61%

AST

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

57%

3PM

UNDER 1.5FANDUEL

66%

STL

UNDER 1.5FANDUEL

72%

BLK

OVER 0.5BETMGM

54%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

58%

OVER 0.5

55%

P+R

UNDER 19.5FANDUEL

60%

P+A

UNDER 16.5FANDUEL

56%

UNDER 0.5

78%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

11.1

13.7

RPG

6.2

5.9

APG

2.1

1.9

vs WAS (H2H)18 games

PPG

13.6

RPG

6.2

APG

2.7

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jaylen Brown	4	29	31%	-16.7%	medium
Brandon Ingram	3	14	57%	+6.9%	medium
Miles Bridges	2	13	28%	-24.2%	low
Jalen Johnson	3	12	47%

Stable scoring floor, but the rebound ceiling looks capped

Tobias Harris comes in with a season line of 13.2 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 2.3 assists across 51 games, with recent form trending slightly up overall despite a quieter last 5 (11.8 PPG, 3.8 RPG). His last 10 is stronger at 14.1 PPG with 29.4 MPG, and he has already produced 12 points, 6 rebounds, and 6 assists in his most recent matchup with Washington. The matchup environment is favorable for scoring volume, but his rebound production has been closer to the season baseline than to any spike, and the recent variance makes combo props less attractive.

Stat Trends

PPG

11.8(↓ from 13.2)

RPG

3.8(↓ from 5.2)

APG

2.6(↑ from 2.3)

Stocks

1.2(→ from 1.3)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data was provided. The opponent context is not restrictive, with Washington posting a 124.04 defensive rating and a 100 pace, which supports normal possession volume but does not change the fact that Harris's best indicators are still closer to his season averages than to an inflated ceiling.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Tobias Harris▼	Points	14.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	7	✓
Tobias Harris▼	Rebounds	5.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	7	✗
Tobias Harris▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	5	✗
Tobias Harris▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	0	✓
Tobias Harris▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	—	80%	0	✓
Tobias Harris▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	30%	2	✓
Tobias Harris▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	—	60%	2	✗
Tobias Harris▼	Turnovers	0.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	50%	1	✓
Tobias Harris▼	P+R	19.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	14	✓
Tobias Harris▼	P+A	16.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	12	✓
Tobias Harris▼	Double-Double	0.5	UNDER	78%HIGH	—	—	—	—

ML Scout Analysis

P+A17OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (13/20)OVER 7x12/1963%▼

P+R19OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)10/1953%▼

R+A8.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)9/1947%▼

Featured Pick

Tobias Harris

Rebounds UNDER 5.5HIGH

This is the cleanest numbers-based angle: his season rebound average is 5.2, his last 10 is 5.0, and his last 5 is 3.8. With the line at 5.5, he needs to beat both his season norm and recent form, which makes the under the most appealing option.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Will Riley	2	9	5	50%	63%
Tre Johnson	2	2	3	33%	50%
Anthony Gill	2	2	0	0%	0%
Justin Champagnie	1	2	8	50%	75%
Bub Carrington	2	2	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 14.563%MEDIUM

His season mean is 13.2 points and his last 5 is 11.8, both below 14.5. The recent 21-point game helps, but the overall sample still leans under this number.

reboundsUNDER 5.561%MEDIUM

He averages 5.2 rebounds on the season and 5.0 over the last 10, so 5.5 is slightly above his typical output. His last 5 at 3.8 RPG is a further drag on the over case.

assistsUNDER 2.557%MEDIUM

His season assist average is 2.25 and his last 10 is 2.0, both under 2.5. The recent 6-assist game versus Washington is notable, but it is not enough to outweigh the full sample.

threesUNDER 1.566%MEDIUM

He averages 1.27 threes per game on the season and 1.0 over the last 5, both below 1.5. That makes the under the cleaner play unless his shot volume spikes.

stealsUNDER 1.572%HIGH

He is at 0.9 steals per game for the season and 1.0 over the last 10, which is still below 1.5. The over would need a strong outlier game.

blocksOVER 0.554%MEDIUM

His season blocks average is 0.3, but he has 1.0 blocks per game over the last 5 and 0.6 over the last 10. This is still a volatile prop, but the recent block run supports a small lean over.

stocksUNDER 1.558%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.25 and last 10 is 1.6, but the metric is high-variance and the season baseline is below 1.5. Given the volatility, the under is slightly safer.

turnoversOVER 0.555%MEDIUM

He is at 0.9 turnovers per game over the last 20 and 0.8 away, which points above 0.5. This is a low line, so even a modest workload can clear it.

prUNDER 19.560%MEDIUM

His season points-plus-rebounds profile is 18.4 using 13.2 points and 5.2 rebounds, and his recent production has not consistently pushed above 19.5. The combo prop carries extra variance, which favors the under.

paUNDER 16.556%MEDIUM

He averages 15.5 points plus assists on the season (13.2 + 2.3), and his last 10 points plus assists sits around 16.1 (14.1 + 2.0). That keeps him just short of 16.5 in most projections.

double_doubleUNDER 0.578%HIGH

He is not a true double-double profile with season marks of 13.2 points and 5.2 rebounds. The rebounds base is too low to make a double-double likely.

timelineUNDER 14.5 PTS