Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Brown | 4 | 29 | 31% | -16.7% | medium |
| Brandon Ingram | 3 | 14 | 57% | +6.9% | medium |
| Miles Bridges | 2 | 13 | 28% | -24.2% | low |
| Jalen Johnson | 3 | 12 | 47% |
Tobias Harris comes in with a season line of 13.2 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 2.3 assists across 51 games, with recent form trending slightly up overall despite a quieter last 5 (11.8 PPG, 3.8 RPG). His last 10 is stronger at 14.1 PPG with 29.4 MPG, and he has already produced 12 points, 6 rebounds, and 6 assists in his most recent matchup with Washington. The matchup environment is favorable for scoring volume, but his rebound production has been closer to the season baseline than to any spike, and the recent variance makes combo props less attractive.
No specific defender matchup data was provided. The opponent context is not restrictive, with Washington posting a 124.04 defensive rating and a 100 pace, which supports normal possession volume but does not change the fact that Harris's best indicators are still closer to his season averages than to an inflated ceiling.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tobias Harris▼ | Points | 14.5 | UNDER | 63%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 50% | 7 | ✓ |
Tobias Harris▼ | Rebounds | 5.5 | UNDER | 61%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 70% | 7 | ✗ |
Tobias Harris▼ | Assists | 2.5 | UNDER | 57%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 70% | 5 | ✗ |
Tobias Harris▼ | 3PM | 1.5 | UNDER | 66%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 80% | 0 | ✓ |
Tobias Harris▼ | Steals | 1.5 | UNDER | 72%HIGH | — | 80% | 0 | ✓ |
Tobias Harris▼ | Blocks | 0.5 | OVER | 54%MEDIUM | — | 30% | 2 | ✓ |
Tobias Harris▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | UNDER | 58%MEDIUM | — | 60% | 2 | ✗ |
Tobias Harris▼ | Turnovers | 0.5 | OVER | 55%MEDIUM | — | 50% | 1 | ✓ |
Tobias Harris▼ | P+R | 19.5 | UNDER | 60%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 50% | 14 | ✓ |
Tobias Harris▼ | P+A | 16.5 | UNDER | 56%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 40% | 12 | ✓ |
Tobias Harris▼ | Double-Double | 0.5 | UNDER | 78%HIGH | — | — | — | — |
This is the cleanest numbers-based angle: his season rebound average is 5.2, his last 10 is 5.0, and his last 5 is 3.8. With the line at 5.5, he needs to beat both his season norm and recent form, which makes the under the most appealing option.
| medium |
| Paolo Banchero | 2 | 11 | 22% | -24.2% | low |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Riley | 2 | 9 | 5 | 50% | 63% |
| Tre Johnson | 2 | 2 | 3 | 33% | 50% |
| Anthony Gill | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Justin Champagnie | 1 | 2 | 8 | 50% | 75% |
| Bub Carrington | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
His season mean is 13.2 points and his last 5 is 11.8, both below 14.5. The recent 21-point game helps, but the overall sample still leans under this number.
He averages 5.2 rebounds on the season and 5.0 over the last 10, so 5.5 is slightly above his typical output. His last 5 at 3.8 RPG is a further drag on the over case.
His season assist average is 2.25 and his last 10 is 2.0, both under 2.5. The recent 6-assist game versus Washington is notable, but it is not enough to outweigh the full sample.
He averages 1.27 threes per game on the season and 1.0 over the last 5, both below 1.5. That makes the under the cleaner play unless his shot volume spikes.
He is at 0.9 steals per game for the season and 1.0 over the last 10, which is still below 1.5. The over would need a strong outlier game.
His season blocks average is 0.3, but he has 1.0 blocks per game over the last 5 and 0.6 over the last 10. This is still a volatile prop, but the recent block run supports a small lean over.
His season stocks average is 1.25 and last 10 is 1.6, but the metric is high-variance and the season baseline is below 1.5. Given the volatility, the under is slightly safer.
He is at 0.9 turnovers per game over the last 20 and 0.8 away, which points above 0.5. This is a low line, so even a modest workload can clear it.
His season points-plus-rebounds profile is 18.4 using 13.2 points and 5.2 rebounds, and his recent production has not consistently pushed above 19.5. The combo prop carries extra variance, which favors the under.
He averages 15.5 points plus assists on the season (13.2 + 2.3), and his last 10 points plus assists sits around 16.1 (14.1 + 2.0). That keeps him just short of 16.5 in most projections.
He is not a true double-double profile with season marks of 13.2 points and 5.2 rebounds. The rebounds base is too low to make a double-double likely.