AI Model:

Tre Johnson▲

WAS · SG

PPG

12.2

RPG

2.8

APG

2.0

L5 PPG

10.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-2.0

12.2

10.2

RPG-0.2

2.8

2.6

APG-0.4

2.0

1.6

SPG-0.4

0.6

0.2

BPG-0.1

0.3

0.2

UNDER 12.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

12.5

TOR

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs TOR: 8 pts

HOU

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs HOU: 5 pts

ORL

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs ORL: 9 pts

UTA

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs UTA: 15 pts

NOP

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs NOP: 20 pts

MIA

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MIA: 17 pts

ORL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs ORL: 3 pts

BOS

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs BOS: 7 pts

GSW

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs GSW: 13 pts

DET

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs DET: 11 pts

Over 12.5

Under 12.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 12.5FANDUEL

61%

REB

OVER 2.5BETONLINEAG

54%

AST

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

69%

3PM

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

57%

STL

UNDER 0.5

64%

BLK

UNDER 0.5BETMGM

72%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

66%

OVER 1.5

58%

PRA

UNDER 17.5FANDUEL

62%

P+A

UNDER 14.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

P+R

UNDER 15.5BETMGM

63%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

11.6

12.7

RPG

3.0

2.3

APG

2.1

2.0

vs DET (H2H)2 games

PPG

10.5

RPG

4.0

APG

2.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Kris Dunn	2	13	0%	-41.7%	low
Kon Knueppel	4	12	30%	-21.7%	medium
Desmond Bane	4	11	67%	+25.0%	medium
Jalen Pickett	2	9	0%

Tre Johnson’s scoring line is live, but efficiency and volume point to a cautious lean

Tre Johnson is averaging 12.2 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 2.0 assists in 23.8 minutes this season, with his last-5 scoring dipping to 10.2 points. His recent form is mixed: the last-10 is 10.8 PPG while the last-20 is 12.1 PPG, which suggests he is close to his season baseline rather than breaking out. He just posted 11 points, 4 rebounds, and 1 assist in 24 minutes in the most recent matchup with Detroit, and his 2026-03-17 game log adds another data point near that range. With the market showing a points line of 11.5 to 12.5 at several books, the projection sits around his current season level rather than a clear over spot.

Stat Trends

PPG

10.2(↓ from 12.2)

RPG

2.6(→ from 2.8)

APG

1.6(↓ from 2.0)

3PM

1.6(↓ from 1.9)

Key Matchup

Detroit-specific data is limited to Tre Johnson’s own head-to-head results, where he has averaged 10.5 points, 4 rebounds, and 2 assists in 2 games against this opponent. The available defender list does not provide a clear primary defender assignment to target, so there is no specific defender matchup data.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Tre Johnson▼	Points	12.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	12	✓
Tre Johnson▼	Rebounds	2.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	1	✗
Tre Johnson▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	69%MEDIUM	2/2	90%	2	✓
Tre Johnson▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	2	✓
Tre Johnson▼	Steals	0.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	—	70%	0	✓
Tre Johnson▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	—	60%	0	✓
Tre Johnson▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	—	90%	0	✓
Tre Johnson▼	Turnovers	1.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	70%	1	✗
Tre Johnson▼	PRA	17.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	15	✓
Tre Johnson▼	P+A	14.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	14	✓
Tre Johnson▼	P+R	15.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	13	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PTS13.5UNDER32%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (14/20)UNDER 9x5/2025%+21.5% edge▼

PRA19.5UNDER37%gbt_praDecent Leg (14/20)UNDER 9x4/2020%+25.1% edge▼

P+A12.5OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (14/20)10/2050%▼

3PM1.5UNDER16%gbt_three_pmDecent Leg (13/20)7/2035%+20.8% edgePrediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge shifted +0.476; Scorecard changed +3.0▼

P+R14UNDER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

REB3.5OVER7%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (12/20)9/2045%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge changed +0.041▼

AST2.5OVER12%gbt_assistsDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 2x4/2020%▼

R+A5UNDER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 3x8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

Tre Johnson

Assists UNDER 2.5HIGH

This is one of the cleanest numbers on the board relative to his production: 2.0 assists per game on the season, 1.6 over the last-5, and a 2.5 line at multiple books. The combination of modest assist volume and recent dip makes the under the strongest edge among the listed props.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Duncan Robinson	3	7	11	44%	61%
Daniss Jenkins	3	3	5	40%	50%
Ronald Holland II	3	2	0	0%	0%
Tobias Harris	2	2	0	0%	0%
Javonte Green	1	2	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 12.561%MEDIUM

His season average is 12.2 PPG and his last-5 is only 10.2, so 12.5 asks for a score above both recent form and baseline. Detroit also held him to 11 points in the most recent head-to-head on 2026-03-17.

reboundsOVER 2.554%MEDIUM

He averages 2.8 rebounds for the season and 3.2 over the last-10, which is slightly above the 2.5 line. The profile is still volatile, but the matchup data shows 4 rebounds in the latest Detroit game.

assistsUNDER 2.569%MEDIUM

Tre Johnson is at 2.0 assists per game this season and only 1.6 over the last-5, so 2.5 is above his normal output. The recent game logs also show he has stayed at 1-2 assists in most appearances.

threesOVER 1.557%MEDIUM

He averages 1.94 made threes per game on the season and 1.9 over the last-10, so 1.5 is below his typical volume. Away form is stronger at 2.29 made threes per game, which supports this over if his shot attempts hold.

stealsUNDER 0.564%MEDIUM

He averages only 0.6 steals per game season-long and just 0.2 over the last-5, but the variance is still high for a one-event prop. The market line is low, yet his recent steal production has been limited.

blocksUNDER 0.572%HIGH

He averages 0.3 blocks per game on the season and 0.2 over the last-5, well below 0.5. This is a clear under relative to his established shot-blocking rate.

stocksUNDER 1.566%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 0.89 and recent is 0.7, both short of 1.5. Since steals and blocks are both low-volume for him, this combo requires an outlier game.

turnoversOVER 1.558%MEDIUM

His last-5 and last-10 turnover rate is 2.0 per game, so 1.5 is below recent usage. The recent logs show multiple 2-turnover games, making this a reasonable lean.

praUNDER 17.562%MEDIUM

His season PRA is 17.98 (12.2 points, 2.8 rebounds, 2.0 assists), which is close but not comfortably above the 17.5 line. Because the last-5 scoring and assists are down, the under is slightly safer.

paUNDER 14.568%MEDIUM

His season points plus assists sits at 14.24, and the last-5 combination is even lower at 11.8. That puts 14.5 above his recent baseline despite being near his season mean.

prUNDER 15.563%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds is 15.04, which is slightly below this line. Recent scoring has been softer, so he needs a better-than-average night to clear 15.5.

timelineUNDER 12.5 PTS