AI Model:

Will Riley▲

WAS · PF

PPG

8.7

RPG

2.6

APG

1.7

L5 PPG

15.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+6.7

8.7

15.4

RPG+1.6

2.6

4.2

APG+0.5

1.7

2.2

SPG0.0

0.6

BPG+0.1

0.1

0.2

OVER 14.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

14.5

TOR

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs TOR: 19 pts

HOU

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs HOU: 7 pts

ORL

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs ORL: 19 pts

UTA

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs UTA: 13 pts

NOP

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs NOP: 19 pts

MIA

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MIA: 22 pts

ORL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs ORL: 8 pts

BOS

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs BOS: 5 pts

GSW

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs GSW: 21 pts

DET

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs DET: 21 pts

Over 14.5

Under 14.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 14.5DRAFTKINGS

64%

REB

UNDER 4.5FANDUEL

72%

AST

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

3PM

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

57%

STL

OVER 0.5

60%

BLK

UNDER 0.5BETMGM

79%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

68%

OVER 2

58%

PRA

UNDER 22.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

P+A

UNDER 17.5DRAFTKINGS

61%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

13.6

15.6

RPG

2.8

4.7

APG

2.0

2.5

vs DET (H2H)2 games

PPG

20.5

RPG

4.5

APG

3.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Tristan da Silva	3	11	17%	-29.0%	medium
Jayson Tatum	1	7	64%	+11.4%	low
Kevin Huerter	3	6	20%	-25.7%	medium
Zach LaVine	2	6	17%

Will Riley’s volume surge keeps points live, but the board is tighter than it looks

Will Riley is trending up hard, with his last 5 at 15.4 PPG, 4.2 RPG, and 2.2 APG while playing 35.6 MPG, well above his season baseline of 8.7 PPG in 19.7 MPG. The matchup is workable on paper, and his only head-to-head sample vs Detroit is strong at 20.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG, and 3 APG across 2 games. That said, his recent scoring spike is much higher than the season mean, so regression risk is real if minutes dip from the recent 30+ range. The safer angles lean toward lower-threshold props rather than chasing inflated combo lines.

Stat Trends

PPG

15.4(↑ from 8.7)

RPG

4.2(↑ from 2.6)

APG

2.2(↑ from 1.7)

Key Matchup

Detroit’s opponent profile shows a 109.87 defensive rating with pace at 100, while the player’s head-to-head sample vs Detroit is 20.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG, and 3 APG across 2 games. key defenders data is present, but there is no specific defender matchup data to isolate a clear one-on-one edge.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Will Riley▼	Points	14.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	15	✓
Will Riley▼	Rebounds	4.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	2/2	80%	3	✓
Will Riley▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	1	✓
Will Riley▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	4	✓
Will Riley▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	—	40%	0	✗
Will Riley▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	79%HIGH	—	90%	0	✓
Will Riley▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	—	70%	0	✓
Will Riley▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	40%	2	✗
Will Riley▼	PRA	22.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	19	✓
Will Riley▼	P+A	17.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	16	✓

ML Scout Analysis

AST3.5UNDER6%logisticDecent Leg (14/20)7/2035%+16.2% edgePrediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge shifted +0.418; Scorecard changed +6.0▼

PRA30.5UNDER3%logisticDecent Leg (14/20)OVER 2x4/2020%+24.8% edgeScorecard changed +3.0▼

P+R20.5OVER0%logisticDecent Leg (14/20)OVER 2x11/2055%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

P+A20OVER0%logisticDecent Leg (14/20)OVER 4x11/2055%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

PTS22.5OVER1%logisticDecent Leg (13/20)OVER 2x2/2010%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Line moved +1.0; Value edge shifted -0.684▼

REB4.5UNDER16%logisticDecent Leg (13/20)5/2025%+18.5% edgeConfidence moved MEDIUM to LOW; Scorecard changed +3.0▼

3PM2.5UNDER12%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)5/2025%+11.4% edgeLine moved +1.0; Value edge changed -0.043; Odds moved materially▼

R+A6UNDER0%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)7/2035%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

Featured Pick

Will Riley

Blocks UNDER 0.5HIGH

This is the most stable angle because his season block rate is only 0.1 per game and his last 10 is also 0.1. Unlike the scoring and combo markets, there is very little variance here, making the under the strongest play.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Kevin Huerter	3	6	2	20%	20%
Ausar Thompson	3	6	8	80%	80%
Tobias Harris	2	5	3	33%	33%
Ronald Holland II	3	5	0	0%	0%
Duncan Robinson	3	4	3	33%	50%

pointsOVER 14.564%MEDIUM

His season mean is 8.7, but the last 5 have jumped to 15.4 with 35.6 MPG. Against Detroit he has averaged 20.5 PPG in 2 games, which supports the over despite some regression risk.

reboundsUNDER 4.572%HIGH

He averages only 2.6 RPG on the season and 2.8 at home, while his last 5 at 4.2 still sits below the 4.5 line. The recent rise is real, but this is still a modest-rebound profile overall.

assistsUNDER 2.566%MEDIUM

His season average is 1.7 APG and his away mark is 2.5, but the recent 2.2 APG is not enough to make this a strong over. The standard deviation is high at 1.61, so confidence stays moderate.

threesOVER 1.557%MEDIUM

He averages 0.92 threes per game for the season, but has hit 1.7 in the last 5 and 1.5 over the last 20. The line is playable, though volatility is elevated with a season std of 1.14.

stealsOVER 0.560%MEDIUM

He averages 0.6 steals per game on the season and 0.8 over the last 10. The volume is enough to target the over at a 0.5 line, but this category is still noisy.

blocksUNDER 0.579%HIGH

He averages just 0.1 blocks per game on the season and 0.1 over the last 10. This is well below the line and is the cleanest under on the board.

stocksUNDER 1.568%MEDIUM

His combined season average is 0.75 stocks and the recent mean is 0.9. Even with some uptick, he is still short of a 1.5 threshold.

turnoversOVER 258%MEDIUM

He has 2.0 turnovers per game over the last 10 and 1.6 over the last 20, with recent usage up alongside the minutes spike. This is a thin over, but the line is supported by the recent workload.

praUNDER 22.563%MEDIUM

His season PRA components sum to 13.0, while the last 5 profile is stronger but still volatile. Combo props carry added variance, and the line sits well above his season production.

paUNDER 17.561%MEDIUM

He averages 10.4 points plus assists on the season and 17.6 over the last 5, so this line is right on the edge. Because the last-5 jump is far above season norms, regression makes the under slightly safer.

timelineOVER 14.5 PTS