AI Model:

Brook Lopez—

LAC · C

PPG

7.6

RPG

3.1

APG

1.2

L5 PPG

5.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-2.0

7.6

5.6

RPG+0.1

3.1

3.2

APG+0.6

1.2

1.8

SPG-0.2

0.6

0.4

BPG+0.9

1.1

2.0

UNDER 8.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

8.5

GSW

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs GSW: 6 pts

IND

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs IND: 17 pts

SAS

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs SAS: 26 pts

MEM

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs MEM: 4 pts

NYK

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs NYK: 16 pts

MIN

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs MIN: 3 pts

CHI

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs CHI: 11 pts

SAC

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs SAC: 0 pts

SAS

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs SAS: 3 pts

NOP

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs NOP: 11 pts

Over 8.5

Under 8.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 8.5DRAFTKINGS

64%

REB

UNDER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

AST

OVER 1.5

55%

3PM

UNDER 1.5FANDUEL

61%

STL

OVER 0.5

54%

BLK

OVER 0.5STAKE

67%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

60%

UNDER 1

70%

P+R

UNDER 11.5DRAFTKINGS

57%

R+A

OVER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

52%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

8.8

11.7

RPG

3.9

4.4

APG

1.7

1.8

vs NOP (H2H)11 games

PPG

14.3

RPG

5.5

APG

1.7

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Rudy Gobert	4	25	83%	+41.3%	medium
Alperen Sengun	4	19	54%	+10.2%	medium
Donovan Clingan	3	16	56%	-4.5%	medium
Maxime Raynaud	3	16	92%

Lopez’s scoring is capped, but the blocks and threes remain live

Brook Lopez is coming in with a season line of 7.6 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 1.1 blocks in 20.6 minutes, while his last-10 scoring has ticked up to 9.7 points on 25.3 minutes. The matchup data points to a solid efficiency spot, but his recent production still looks volatile, with his last-5 scoring down to 5.6 and rebounds at 3.2. He has been much better historically versus this opponent, averaging 14.27 points and 5.45 rebounds in 11 games, but his current minute load and the back-to-back context temper that ceiling. Given the prop board and the over-bias warning, the safer lean is toward selective overs where his role-driven production is most stable.

Stat Trends

PPG

5.6(↓ from 7.6)

RPG

3.2(→ from 3.1)

APG

1.8(↑ from 1.2)

BPG

2.0(↑ from 1.1)

Key Matchup

He does not have specific defender matchup data here, so no specific defender matchup data. The opponent context is favorable enough to matter, since he has averaged 14.27 points and 5.45 rebounds in 11 games versus this team, but the current game environment and back-to-back setup still make his median outcome more modest.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Brook Lopez▼	Points	8.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	6	✓
Brook Lopez▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	3	✓
Brook Lopez▼	Assists	1.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	2	✓
Brook Lopez▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	0	✓
Brook Lopez▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	30%	0	✗
Brook Lopez▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	67%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	1	✓
Brook Lopez▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	—	40%	1	✗
Brook Lopez▼	Turnovers	1	UNDER	70%HIGH	—	90%	3	✗
Brook Lopez▼	P+R	11.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	9	✓
Brook Lopez▼	R+A	3.5	OVER	52%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	5	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PTS10.5UNDER3%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (14/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

P+A13UNDER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

P+R15.5OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x11/2055%▼

3PM1.5UNDER7%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%+14.1% edge▼

3PA4UNDER29%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

PRA17.5OVER19%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x11/2055%▼

R+A6.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%▼

REB4.5OVER14%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%▼

BLK1UNDER31%gbt_blocksWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

FTM0.5UNDER19%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%▼

FTA1UNDER8%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)8/2040%▼

AST2OVER6%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)6/2030%▼

Featured Pick

Brook Lopez

Blocks OVER 0.5HIGH

This is his most stable prop relative to the line, with a season average of 1.1 blocks and 1.1 over the last 10. His last-5 block rate is even better at 2.0, so 0.5 is a favorable threshold with less scoring dependence than his points or combo props.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Yves Missi	3	8	4	100%	100%
Derik Queen	4	6	10	67%	83%
Karlo Matković	4	4	0	0%	0%
Zion Williamson	2	4	9	60%	60%
DeAndre Jordan	1	4	2	100%	100%

pointsUNDER 8.564%MEDIUM

His season mean is 7.62 points and his last-5 is only 5.6, so 8.5 is above the most reliable baseline. The recent bump in minutes helps, but the output is still too inconsistent to trust the over.

reboundsUNDER 3.558%MEDIUM

He averages 3.1 rebounds for the season and 3.4 over the last 5, both right around the line. With his back-to-back rebound mean at 2.27, the under is the cleaner side.

assistsOVER 1.555%MEDIUM

His season assist average is 1.16 and his last-5 is 1.8, supported by 1.8 over the last 10 and 1.8 on the road. The low line makes the over reachable if his minutes stay in the mid-20s.

threesUNDER 1.561%MEDIUM

He averages 1.41 threes per game on the season, but his recent mean is 1.1 and the projected line is slightly above his baseline. The value data favors the over at one book, but the overall profile still leans under at 1.5.

stealsOVER 0.554%MEDIUM

His season average is 0.6 steals and the last-20 is 0.9, so he clears 0.5 often enough to justify a lean. The volatility keeps confidence moderate.

blocksOVER 0.567%MEDIUM

He averages 1.1 blocks on the season and 1.1 over the last 10, with 2.0 blocks in the last 5. That makes 0.5 a strong threshold for an over despite the natural variance.

stocksOVER 1.560%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.69 and recent marks are 1.7 to 2.0, so this combo is supported by both steals and blocks. The floor is better than his scoring props.

turnoversUNDER 170%HIGH

He has only 0.7 turnovers per game on the season and 0.3 over the last 10. Unless his usage spikes, the under is the clear side.

prUNDER 11.557%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds sits at 10.72, below the line, even with recent minutes improvement. Combo props carry extra variance, so the under is preferred.

raOVER 3.552%MEDIUM

He averages 4.3 rebounds plus assists on the season and 5.2 over the last 10, which clears 3.5 comfortably. The line is low enough to support an over, but combo volatility keeps confidence modest.

timelineUNDER 8.5 PTS