Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donte DiVincenzo | 3 | 14 | 100% | +28.5% | medium |
| Devin Vassell | 3 | 11 | 70% | +3.5% | medium |
| Gary Trent Jr. | 2 | 10 | 42% | -13.2% | low |
| Andrew Nembhard | 4 | 10 | 72% |
Darius Garland is coming in with solid recent form: 21.4 PPG and 7.2 APG over his last 5, compared to season marks of 18.2 PPG and 6.8 APG. The concern is that his last-5 scoring is running well above his season average, and his last matchup vs New Orleans on 2026-03-18 produced just 13 points and 6 assists in 29 minutes. He’s still clearing volume in a starting role, but the combination of a down trend, back-to-back context, and a modest season scoring baseline makes the points side more fragile than the assist side.
The provided defender data does not identify a single clear primary stopper, so there is no specific defender matchup data. New Orleans allows a 119.56 defensive rating environment with a 0.958 scoring suppression, which is not an especially strong hold-down spot for Garland's playmaking.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Darius Garland▼ | Points | 18.5 | UNDER | 63%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 30% |
Darius Garland▼ | Assists | 6.5 | OVER | 58%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 60% |
Darius Garland▼ | Rebounds | 2.5 | UNDER | 71%HIGH | 2/2 | 60% |
Darius Garland▼ | 3PM | 2.5 | OVER | 57%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 70% |
Darius Garland▼ | Steals | 0.5 | OVER | 56%MEDIUM | — | 80% |
Darius Garland▼ | Turnovers | 3 | OVER | 60%MEDIUM | — | 30% |
Darius Garland▼ | P+A | 25.5 | OVER | 55%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 70% |
Darius Garland▼ | P+R | 20.5 | UNDER | 59%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 30% |
His 6.8 assists per game season average, 7.2 over the last 5, and 8.0 b2b mean all point toward assist volume staying intact. Compared with his points market, this is the cleaner path because the scoring number has already outpaced his season baseline and is more exposed to regression.
| medium |
| Mikal Bridges | 2 | 9 | 63% | +3.5% | low |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremiah Fears | 2 | 8 | 7 | 60% | 70% |
| Herbert Jones | 1 | 3 | 5 | 100% | 125% |
| Bryce McGowens | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Trey Murphy III | 1 | 1 | 4 | 67% | 67% |
| Dejounte Murray | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
Season scoring is 18.2, and the recent 21.4 over the last 5 is above that baseline enough to raise regression concern. He also just scored 13 against New Orleans on 2026-03-18, and the back-to-back setting adds some downside risk.
His season average is 6.8 APG and his last 5 is 7.2, with a 7.1 home mean and 8.0 b2b mean in the provided metrics. The line sits right below his season level, making the over viable if his minutes hold near his normal range.
He averages just 2.4 rebounds per game on the season and 2.3 over the last 10, so this is below the typical output range. Rebound volume is low enough that the under has the cleaner profile.
Garland averages 2.53 made threes on the season and 3.5 over the last 5, with 3.2 at home. The line is modest relative to his baseline, though the recent run is hotter than season norm.
He averages 0.9 steals on the season and 1.6 over the last 5, so even a 0.5 line is well within reach. The volatility is high, but the baseline supports an over lean.
His last 10 show 3.1 turnovers per game and the last 5 are at 2.8, with several recent high-turnover outings. Given the volume as a primary creator, this sits close to his current turnover profile.
His season points-plus-assists baseline is 25.02 from 18.2 PPG and 6.8 APG, and his last 5 has climbed to 28.6. Because combo props add variance, confidence stays moderate.
Points and rebounds together average 20.6 on the season, but the matchup history and recent scoring volatility make this less stable than it appears. With rebounds capped at 2.4 per game, the under is slightly safer.