AI Model:

Darius Garland▼

LAC · PG

PPG

18.2

RPG

2.4

APG

6.8

L5 PPG

21.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+3.2

18.2

21.4

RPG-0.8

2.4

1.6

APG+0.4

6.8

7.2

SPG+0.7

0.9

1.6

BPG-0.1

0.1

0.0

UNDER 18.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

18.5

UTA

2026-01-12

2026-01-12 vs UTA: 23 pts

PHI

2026-01-14

2026-01-14 vs PHI: 20 pts

GSW

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs GSW: 12 pts

IND

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs IND: 12 pts

MEM

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs MEM: 21 pts

NYK

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs NYK: 23 pts

MIN

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs MIN: 21 pts

SAC

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs SAC: 25 pts

SAS

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs SAS: 25 pts

NOP

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs NOP: 13 pts

Over 18.5

Under 18.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 18.5FANATICS

63%

AST

OVER 6.5FANATICS

58%

REB

UNDER 2.5

71%

3PM

OVER 2.5FANATICS

57%

STL

OVER 0.5

56%

OVER 3

60%

P+A

OVER 25.5BETMGM

55%

P+R

UNDER 20.5BETMGM

59%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

19.5

17.6

RPG

1.7

2.1

APG

7.3

6.3

vs NOP (H2H)6 games

PPG

17.5

RPG

2.8

APG

8.7

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Donte DiVincenzo	3	14	100%	+28.5%	medium
Devin Vassell	3	11	70%	+3.5%	medium
Gary Trent Jr.	2	10	42%	-13.2%	low
Andrew Nembhard	4	10	72%

Garland’s playmaking floor is strong, but the scoring ceiling is softer

Darius Garland is coming in with solid recent form: 21.4 PPG and 7.2 APG over his last 5, compared to season marks of 18.2 PPG and 6.8 APG. The concern is that his last-5 scoring is running well above his season average, and his last matchup vs New Orleans on 2026-03-18 produced just 13 points and 6 assists in 29 minutes. He’s still clearing volume in a starting role, but the combination of a down trend, back-to-back context, and a modest season scoring baseline makes the points side more fragile than the assist side.

Stat Trends

PPG

21.4(↑ from 18.2)

APG

7.2(↑ from 6.8)

3PM

3.5(↑ from 2.5)

SPG

1.6(↑ from 0.9)

Key Matchup

The provided defender data does not identify a single clear primary stopper, so there is no specific defender matchup data. New Orleans allows a 119.56 defensive rating environment with a 0.958 scoring suppression, which is not an especially strong hold-down spot for Garland's playmaking.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend
Darius Garland▼	Points	18.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	30%
Darius Garland▼	Assists	6.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	60%
Darius Garland▼	Rebounds	2.5	UNDER	71%HIGH	2/2	60%
Darius Garland▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	70%
Darius Garland▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	—	80%
Darius Garland▼	Turnovers	3	OVER	60%MEDIUM	—	30%
Darius Garland▼	P+A	25.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	2/2	70%
Darius Garland▼	P+R	20.5	UNDER	59%MEDIUM	1/2	30%

ML Scout Analysis

PTS19.5OVER24%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (14/20)UNDER 2x12/2060%+7.2% edge▼

R+A9OVER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (13/20)10/2050%▼

AST7.5OVER2%gbt_assistsDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 3x6/2030%▼

PRA29.5OVER7%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 4x9/2045%▼

REB2.5UNDER33%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (11/20)7/2035%+12.6% edge▼

P+R22.5UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 4x9/2045%▼

P+A27UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 4x8/2040%▼

3PM2.5OVER34%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x13/2065%▼

FTM2UNDER29%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x6/2030%▼

STL1UNDER31%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%▼

3PA8UNDER25%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 4x8/2040%▼

FTA2UNDER1%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

Darius Garland

Assists OVER 6.5MEDIUM

His 6.8 assists per game season average, 7.2 over the last 5, and 8.0 b2b mean all point toward assist volume staying intact. Compared with his points market, this is the cleaner path because the scoring number has already outpaced his season baseline and is more exposed to regression.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jeremiah Fears	2	8	7	60%	70%
Herbert Jones	1	3	5	100%	125%
Bryce McGowens	1	3	0	0%	0%
Trey Murphy III	1	1	4	67%	67%
Dejounte Murray	1	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 18.563%MEDIUM

Season scoring is 18.2, and the recent 21.4 over the last 5 is above that baseline enough to raise regression concern. He also just scored 13 against New Orleans on 2026-03-18, and the back-to-back setting adds some downside risk.

assistsOVER 6.558%MEDIUM

His season average is 6.8 APG and his last 5 is 7.2, with a 7.1 home mean and 8.0 b2b mean in the provided metrics. The line sits right below his season level, making the over viable if his minutes hold near his normal range.

reboundsUNDER 2.571%HIGH

He averages just 2.4 rebounds per game on the season and 2.3 over the last 10, so this is below the typical output range. Rebound volume is low enough that the under has the cleaner profile.

threesOVER 2.557%MEDIUM

Garland averages 2.53 made threes on the season and 3.5 over the last 5, with 3.2 at home. The line is modest relative to his baseline, though the recent run is hotter than season norm.

stealsOVER 0.556%MEDIUM

He averages 0.9 steals on the season and 1.6 over the last 5, so even a 0.5 line is well within reach. The volatility is high, but the baseline supports an over lean.

turnoversOVER 360%MEDIUM

His last 10 show 3.1 turnovers per game and the last 5 are at 2.8, with several recent high-turnover outings. Given the volume as a primary creator, this sits close to his current turnover profile.

paOVER 25.555%MEDIUM

His season points-plus-assists baseline is 25.02 from 18.2 PPG and 6.8 APG, and his last 5 has climbed to 28.6. Because combo props add variance, confidence stays moderate.

prUNDER 20.559%MEDIUM

Points and rebounds together average 20.6 on the season, but the matchup history and recent scoring volatility make this less stable than it appears. With rebounds capped at 2.4 per game, the under is slightly safer.

timelineUNDER 18.5 PTS