AI Model:

Derrick Jones Jr.▼

LAC · SG

PPG

10.8

RPG

3.1

APG

1.3

L5 PPG

7.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-3.2

10.8

7.6

RPG+0.5

3.1

3.6

APG+0.5

1.3

1.8

SPG+0.8

1.0

1.8

BPG+0.1

1.1

1.2

UNDER 10.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

10.5

GSW

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs GSW: 9 pts

IND

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs IND: 12 pts

SAS

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs SAS: 12 pts

MEM

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs MEM: 16 pts

NYK

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs NYK: 16 pts

MIN

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs MIN: 12 pts

CHI

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs CHI: 10 pts

SAC

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs SAC: 2 pts

SAS

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs SAS: 10 pts

NOP

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs NOP: 4 pts

Over 10.5

Under 10.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 10.5

66%

REB

OVER 3

58%

AST

UNDER 1.5

61%

3PM

OVER 1

54%

STL

OVER 0.5

64%

BLK

OVER 1

57%

STL+BLK

OVER 2

60%

UNDER 1

72%

PRA

UNDER 15

55%

P+A

UNDER 12

63%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

12.0

10.0

RPG

3.3

3.6

APG

1.2

1.8

vs NOP (H2H)16 games

PPG

8.6

RPG

2.5

APG

1.2

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Devin Booker	3	12	38%	-17.4%	medium
De'Aaron Fox	3	11	38%	-13.2%	medium
Trey Murphy III	3	10	83%	+16.0%	medium
Jamal Murray	2	10	17%

Reliable across the board, but scoring ceiling looks capped

Derrick Jones Jr. is producing 10.8 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 1.3 assists per game this season, with recent minutes holding steady at 29.6. His last 5 games show a scoring dip to 7.6 PPG, well below his season norm, while his defensive production remains strong with 3.0 stocks over that span. This matchup comes with a tough recent history versus New Orleans, where he has averaged 8.625 points in 16 games and just 21.4375 minutes, making the under lean stronger on scoring props. The game is also a back-to-back for both teams, which adds some volatility, but his rebounding and defensive floor remain usable.

Stat Trends

PPG

7.6(↓ from 10.8)

RPG

3.6(→ from 3.1)

APG

1.8(↑ from 1.3)

Stocks

3.0(↑ from 2.1)

3PM

0.6(↓ from 1.2)

Key Matchup

There is no specific defender matchup data that clearly changes the projection, and the provided key defenders do not offer a single definitive matchup read. New Orleans has allowed a 119.56 defensive rating context with a 0.958 scoring suppression mark, while his 16-game history vs this opponent is only 8.625 points and 2.5 rebounds.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Derrick Jones Jr.▼	Points	10.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	22	✗
Derrick Jones Jr.▼	Rebounds	3	OVER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	4	✓
Derrick Jones Jr.▼	Assists	1.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	3	✗
Derrick Jones Jr.▼	3PM	1	OVER	54%MEDIUM	1/2	30%	1	✗
Derrick Jones Jr.▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	80%	1	✓
Derrick Jones Jr.▼	Blocks	1	OVER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	30%	0	✗
Derrick Jones Jr.▼	STL+BLK	2	OVER	60%MEDIUM	—	40%	1	✗
Derrick Jones Jr.▼	Turnovers	1	UNDER	72%HIGH	—	70%	1	✗
Derrick Jones Jr.▼	PRA	15	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	29	✗
Derrick Jones Jr.▼	P+A	12	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	25	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS9.5UNDER13%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (14/20)UNDER 3x11/2055%▼

REB3.5OVER28%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (13/20)11/2055%+6.0% edge▼

PRA15UNDER14%gbt_praDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼

R+A5.5UNDER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 4x8/2040%▼

P+R14OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼

P+A11OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼

AST1UNDER4%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

FTM0.5UNDER20%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

FTA1.5UNDER23%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

STL1UNDER28%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 3x6/2030%▼

3PA2UNDER38%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 7x8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

Derrick Jones Jr.

Turnovers UNDER 1.0HIGH

This is the cleanest number in the profile because he has averaged exactly 0.8 turnovers in both the season sample and the last 5. That stability gives the under strong support compared with his higher-variance scoring and combo markets.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Trey Murphy III	3	10	5	67%	83%
Saddiq Bey	4	8	17	60%	75%
Jeremiah Fears	4	7	6	29%	43%
Dejounte Murray	2	5	0	0%	0%
Zion Williamson	2	4	5	50%	50%

pointsUNDER 10.566%MEDIUM

Season average is 10.8, but his last 5 are down to 7.6 and he has averaged only 8.625 points in 16 games vs this opponent. The recent form and head-to-head scoring profile both point slightly under the projected line.

reboundsOVER 358%MEDIUM

He averages 3.1 rebounds on the season and 3.6 over the last 5, with a stronger 4.0 over the last 10. The rebound line is close to his mean, but the recent trend supports a modest over.

assistsUNDER 1.561%MEDIUM

His season assist average is 1.3 and the season standard deviation is 1.19, which keeps this outcome volatile but still below the line. Even with a 1.8 last-5 average, the season baseline favors the under.

threesOVER 154%MEDIUM

He averages 1.22 made threes per game this season and 1.0 over the last 10, so the volume is there. The last 5 dipped to 0.6, so this is only a thin over lean.

stealsOVER 0.564%MEDIUM

He averages 1.0 steals per game and has 1.8 over the last 5, well above the threshold. His defensive activity gives this prop a solid floor.

blocksOVER 157%MEDIUM

He averages 1.1 blocks per game and has posted 1.1 over the last 10. The season mean supports the over, though the standard deviation makes it less secure.

stocksOVER 260%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 2.11 and recent form is even stronger at 3.0 over the last 5. With combined steals and blocks production consistently above the line, this is one of his cleaner angles.

turnoversUNDER 172%HIGH

He averages only 0.8 turnovers per game in both season and recent samples, and the last 5 are also at 0.8. That steady low turnover rate makes the under appealing.

praUNDER 1555%MEDIUM

His season PRA is about 15.2, but the last 5 points decline and the opponent history pull the projection back toward the middle. Combo props carry more variance, so the slight under is the safer lean.

paUNDER 1263%MEDIUM

Points plus assists sit around 12.1 on season averages, and his recent scoring drop is the main concern. Because his assist numbers are modest, this profile leans just under.

timelineUNDER 10.5 PTS