AI Model:

Herbert Jones▼

NOP · SF

PPG

8.9

RPG

3.6

APG

2.8

L5 PPG

9.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+0.1

8.9

9.0

RPG+0.2

3.6

3.8

APG-0.6

2.8

2.2

SPG+0.7

1.7

2.4

BPG-0.1

0.5

0.4

UNDER 9.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

9.5

UTA

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs UTA: 17 pts

LAC

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs LAC: 2 pts

LAL

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs LAL: 2 pts

SAC

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs SAC: 12 pts

PHX

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs PHX: 14 pts

WAS

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs WAS: 4 pts

TOR

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs TOR: 16 pts

HOU

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs HOU: 8 pts

DAL

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs DAL: 10 pts

LAC

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs LAC: 7 pts

Over 9.5

Under 9.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 9.5STAKE

63%

REB

OVER 3.5STAKE

55%

AST

OVER 2.5STAKE

56%

3PM

UNDER 1.5

60%

STL

OVER 1.5

66%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

58%

STL+BLK

OVER 2

64%

UNDER 2

62%

P+R

UNDER 12.5STAKE

58%

P+A

OVER 11.5STAKE

54%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

8.8

8.1

RPG

2.9

4.3

APG

2.8

3.7

vs LAC (H2H)14 games

PPG

10.0

RPG

4.4

APG

2.6

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Kevin Durant	3	25	78%	+36.7%	medium
Luka Dončić	3	19	53%	+8.4%	medium
Cooper Flagg	4	16	55%	+11.7%	medium
Brandon Ingram	2	14	22%

Herbert Jones brings elite stocks upside, but scoring is capped

Herbert Jones is averaging 8.9 points, 3.6 rebounds, 2.8 assists, and 2.19 stocks on the season, with recent form holding close at 9.2, 4.2, 2.9, and 2.3 over the last 10. His last 5 games show a small points lift to 9.0 and a strong defensive spike at 2.8 stocks, but the overall trend is still listed as down and his scoring efficiency remains low at 0.385 FG%. This matchup comes with a 9.5 points line and a 3.5 rebounds line, while his opponent history is solid at 10.0 PPG and 4.36 RPG in 14 games, but the current market is still asking for more than his season scoring baseline. The safest angle leans away from his scoring volume and toward his defensive production staying relevant.

Stat Trends

PPG

9.0(→ from 8.9)

RPG

3.8(→ from 3.6)

APG

2.2(↓ from 2.8)

Stocks

2.8(↑ from 2.2)

Key Matchup

The key matchup data shows Kawhi Leonard, Derrick Jones Jr., and Kris Dunn, but no specific defender matchup data is available for Herbert Jones, so no direct defender assignment should be assumed. New Orleans is at home, and the opponent profile shows a 112.97 defensive rating with 100 pace and neutral-to-slight scoring suppression.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Herbert Jones▼	Points	9.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	11	✗
Herbert Jones▼	Rebounds	3.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	3	✗
Herbert Jones▼	Assists	2.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	2	✗
Herbert Jones▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	3	✗
Herbert Jones▼	Steals	1.5	OVER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	2	✓
Herbert Jones▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	—	70%	0	✓
Herbert Jones▼	STL+BLK	2	OVER	64%MEDIUM	—	50%	2	✗
Herbert Jones▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	—	100%	1	✓
Herbert Jones▼	P+R	12.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	14	✗
Herbert Jones▼	P+A	11.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	13	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PTS10UNDER5%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 4x8/1942%▼

3PM2UNDER35%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 4x5/1926%▼

3PA5UNDER23%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x8/1942%▼

PRA16UNDER16%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 5x8/1942%▼

AST3UNDER3%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 4x7/1937%▼

R+A6.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)7/1937%▼

P+R12OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)11/1958%▼

P+A12OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 4x10/1953%▼

REB3UNDER20%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)5/1926%▼

STL1UNDER10%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 3x8/1942%▼

Featured Pick

Herbert Jones

Steals OVER 1.5HIGH

This is his most stable edge relative to market. He averages 1.7 steals on the season, 1.9 over the last 10, and 2.4 over the last 5, all of which support clearing 1.5 more often than not.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
James Harden	1	7	5	33%	42%
Kawhi Leonard	3	6	2	33%	33%
Kris Dunn	4	5	5	100%	125%
Derrick Jones Jr.	4	4	2	0%	0%
Bogdan Bogdanović	2	4	4	100%	150%

pointsUNDER 9.563%MEDIUM

His season mean is 8.9 points and the last 10 is 9.2, so 9.5 sits slightly above his typical output. The recent hot stretch is not enough to ignore the low 0.385 FG% and the fact that his trend is still labeled down.

reboundsOVER 3.555%MEDIUM

He averages 3.6 rebounds on the season and 4.2 over the last 10, with 4.357 vs this opponent in 14 games. The line is modest, though his home rebound mean of 2.9 and standard variance keep the edge limited.

assistsOVER 2.556%MEDIUM

His season assist mean is 2.79 and his last 10 is 2.9, both above the 2.5 line. The over is supported by his 14-game average of 2.57 vs this opponent and steady minute volume near 29.

threesUNDER 1.560%MEDIUM

He averages 1.34 made threes per game and 1.4 over the last 5, which is still below a 1.5 line. His season three-point percentage is only 0.296, so the over requires efficient shot-making that has not been consistent.

stealsOVER 1.566%MEDIUM

His season steals average is 1.7 and the last 5 is 2.4, comfortably above 1.5. With 2.19 season stocks and 2.8 stocks in the last 5, this remains his clearest statistical strength.

blocksUNDER 0.558%MEDIUM

He averages exactly 0.5 blocks per game on the season and just 0.4 over the last 5 and last 10. That makes the over more fragile than the line suggests.

stocksOVER 264%MEDIUM

He averages 2.19 stocks on the season, 2.3 over the last 10, and 2.8 over the last 5. The line is modest relative to his steal-driven production, though the variance is still meaningful.

turnoversUNDER 262%MEDIUM

He averages 1.4 turnovers over the last 10 and 1.6 over the last 5, both below 2.0. His season turnover rate is also controlled at 1.4 per game.

prUNDER 12.558%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds sits at 12.5 exactly from 8.9 and 3.6, which leaves little cushion. Since the betting model is cautious on combo props and his recent form does not clearly clear the line, the under is slightly preferable.

paOVER 11.554%MEDIUM

He combines for 11.7 points and assists on the season, just above this line. The margin is thin, so confidence stays moderate.

timelineUNDER 9.5 PTS