Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jabari Smith Jr. | 3 | 13 | 50% | -22.1% | medium |
| Royce O'Neale | 4 | 10 | 63% | -13.7% | medium |
| Miles Bridges | 2 | 10 | 20% | -35.4% | low |
| Dominick Barlow | 2 | 10 | 80% |
John Collins is coming in with stable production, but his season scoring mean of 13.8 is much closer to the low teens than the 19.5-point sportsbook line. His last 5 shows 13.2 PPG in just 22.2 MPG, while his last 10 and last 20 sit at 14.3 and 15.1 PPG, respectively, so the recent form does not justify a big jump. Rebounding is also solid but not elite at 5.3 RPG on the season, and his away split is actually weaker at 5.1 RPG than his home mark of 6.9. The matchup data is not pointing to a clear boost, and with both teams on a back-to-back, minutes and efficiency could be capped.
The available defender data does not provide a clear one-on-one matchup edge, and the input only gives opponent-level defense metrics. New Orleans has a 119.56 defensive rating and a 100 pace, while the scoring suppression factor of 0.958 suggests some resistance to easy offense.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
John Collins▼ | Points | 19.5 | UNDER | 84%HIGH | 2/2 | 90% | 18 | ✓ |
John Collins▼ | Rebounds | 8.5 | UNDER | 82%HIGH | 2/2 | 80% | 8 | ✓ |
John Collins▼ | Assists | 1 | OVER | 60%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 30% | 1 | ✗ |
John Collins▼ | 3PM | 3.5 | UNDER | 89%HIGH | 1/2 | 100% | 3 | ✓ |
John Collins▼ | Steals | 0.5 | OVER | 58%MEDIUM | — | 70% | 1 | ✓ |
John Collins▼ | Blocks | 0.5 | OVER | 55%MEDIUM | — | 50% | 0 | ✗ |
John Collins▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | OVER | 61%MEDIUM | — | 50% | 1 | ✗ |
John Collins▼ | Turnovers | 1.5 | UNDER | 57%MEDIUM | — | 60% | 3 | ✗ |
John Collins▼ | P+R | 26.5 | UNDER | 86%HIGH | 1/2 | 90% | 26 | ✓ |
John Collins▼ | R+A | 8.5 | UNDER | 80%HIGH | 1/2 | 60% | 9 | ✗ |
This is the cleanest mismatch between line and baseline: Collins averages 1.32 threes per game on the season and only 0.8 over the last 10. The recent game log also shows multiple zero or one-made-three outings, so 4+ makes would be a major outlier.
| low |
| Naji Marshall | 2 | 9 | 50% | -12.5% | low |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zion Williamson | 2 | 6 | 6 | 60% | 60% |
| Saddiq Bey | 4 | 6 | 16 | 71% | 100% |
| Karlo Matković | 4 | 5 | 3 | 50% | 75% |
| Herbert Jones | 4 | 4 | 2 | 50% | 50% |
| Bryce McGowens | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
His season mean is 13.8 PPG and his last 20 is 15.1, both well below 19.5. The recent game log shows 18, 11, 10, and 15 points in his last four, so this line is asking for a level he has not shown consistently.
He averages 5.3 RPG on the season and 5.1 RPG away, versus an 8.5 line that sits far above his baseline. Even his last 10 rebound average of 6.4 does not close the gap enough.
He averages 1.0 APG for the season and 1.4 over the last 5 and last 10, so this is a modest over rather than a strong one. The home mean is 1.2, which supports a small lean up.
He averages 1.32 threes per game on the season and only 0.8 over the last 10, which is well below a 3.5 line. The last 5 is also just 0.6 fg3m per game.
He averages 0.9 steals per game on the season and 0.9 over the last 10, so clearing 0.5 is reasonable. The recent 1.2 steals per game over the last 5 adds some support, though variance is still high.
He averages 0.8 blocks per game on the season, which keeps him above the 0.5 threshold. The last 10 and season numbers are aligned, but the last 5 dipped to 0.4, so confidence stays moderate.
His season stocks average is 1.66 and his last 10 is 1.7, both above 1.5. This is a better fit than the combo scoring props because the baseline is already in range.
He averages 1.2 turnovers over the last 20 and 1.5 over the last 10, so a 1.5 line is not a strong over spot. The recent trend is manageable, but not enough to favor the over.
His season points-plus-rebounds profile is roughly 19.0 using 13.8 PPG and 5.3 RPG, far below 26.5. Recent form has improved slightly, but not nearly enough to justify this number.
He averages 5.3 rebounds and 1.0 assists on the season, so his typical RA profile is around 6.3. Even with a recent assist bump, this is still a comfortable under relative to the posted line.