AI Model:

John Collins—

LAC · PF

PPG

13.8

RPG

5.3

APG

1.0

L5 PPG

13.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-0.6

13.8

13.2

RPG+0.1

5.3

5.4

APG+0.4

1.0

1.4

SPG+0.3

0.9

1.2

BPG-0.4

0.8

0.4

UNDER 19.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

19.5

SAC

2026-02-06

2026-02-06 vs SAC: 22 pts

MIN

2026-02-08

2026-02-08 vs MIN: 15 pts

HOU

2026-02-10

2026-02-10 vs HOU: 17 pts

HOU

2026-02-11

2026-02-11 vs HOU: 12 pts

DEN

2026-02-19

2026-02-19 vs DEN: 11 pts

LAL

2026-02-20

2026-02-20 vs LAL: 12 pts

NOP

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs NOP: 15 pts

SAC

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs SAC: 10 pts

SAS

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs SAS: 11 pts

NOP

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs NOP: 18 pts

Over 19.5

Under 19.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 19.5DRAFTKINGS

84%

REB

UNDER 8.5DRAFTKINGS

82%

AST

OVER 1

60%

3PM

UNDER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

89%

STL

OVER 0.5

58%

BLK

OVER 0.5

55%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

61%

UNDER 1.5

57%

P+R

UNDER 26.5DRAFTKINGS

86%

R+A

UNDER 8.5DRAFTKINGS

80%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

12.8

16.7

RPG

6.9

5.1

APG

1.6

1.2

vs NOP (H2H)10 games

PPG

13.1

RPG

7.3

APG

1.2

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jabari Smith Jr.	3	13	50%	-22.1%	medium
Royce O'Neale	4	10	63%	-13.7%	medium
Miles Bridges	2	10	20%	-35.4%	low
Dominick Barlow	2	10	80%

Collins profile points to a modest scoring night with rebound pressure

John Collins is coming in with stable production, but his season scoring mean of 13.8 is much closer to the low teens than the 19.5-point sportsbook line. His last 5 shows 13.2 PPG in just 22.2 MPG, while his last 10 and last 20 sit at 14.3 and 15.1 PPG, respectively, so the recent form does not justify a big jump. Rebounding is also solid but not elite at 5.3 RPG on the season, and his away split is actually weaker at 5.1 RPG than his home mark of 6.9. The matchup data is not pointing to a clear boost, and with both teams on a back-to-back, minutes and efficiency could be capped.

Stat Trends

PPG

13.2(→ from 13.8)

RPG

5.4(→ from 5.3)

APG

1.4(↑ from 1.0)

Stocks

1.6(→ from 1.7)

Key Matchup

The available defender data does not provide a clear one-on-one matchup edge, and the input only gives opponent-level defense metrics. New Orleans has a 119.56 defensive rating and a 100 pace, while the scoring suppression factor of 0.958 suggests some resistance to easy offense.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
John Collins▼	Points	19.5	UNDER	84%HIGH	2/2	90%	18	✓
John Collins▼	Rebounds	8.5	UNDER	82%HIGH	2/2	80%	8	✓
John Collins▼	Assists	1	OVER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	1	✗
John Collins▼	3PM	3.5	UNDER	89%HIGH	1/2	100%	3	✓
John Collins▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	70%	1	✓
John Collins▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	50%	0	✗
John Collins▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	—	50%	1	✗
John Collins▼	Turnovers	1.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	—	60%	3	✗
John Collins▼	P+R	26.5	UNDER	86%HIGH	1/2	90%	26	✓
John Collins▼	R+A	8.5	UNDER	80%HIGH	1/2	60%	9	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS11.5OVER35%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (15/20)OVER 4x14/2070%+19.5% edge▼

REB5.5OVER10%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (13/20)13/2065%+15.5% edge▼

PRA24UNDER36%gbt_praDecent Leg (13/20)8/2040%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTA3UNDER33%gbtDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 3x7/2035%▼

R+A7UNDER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 7x8/2040%▼

P+R20.5OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 4x12/2060%▼

P+A15.5OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%▼

AST1OVER12%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (11/20)6/2030%▼

3PA2.5UNDER20%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

FTM1UNDER15%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x9/2045%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER▼

3PM1UNDER39%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (9/20)5/2025%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

Featured Pick

John Collins

Three-pointers UNDER 3.5HIGH

This is the cleanest mismatch between line and baseline: Collins averages 1.32 threes per game on the season and only 0.8 over the last 10. The recent game log also shows multiple zero or one-made-three outings, so 4+ makes would be a major outlier.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Zion Williamson	2	6	6	60%	60%
Saddiq Bey	4	6	16	71%	100%
Karlo Matković	4	5	3	50%	75%
Herbert Jones	4	4	2	50%	50%
Bryce McGowens	1	2	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 19.584%HIGH

His season mean is 13.8 PPG and his last 20 is 15.1, both well below 19.5. The recent game log shows 18, 11, 10, and 15 points in his last four, so this line is asking for a level he has not shown consistently.

reboundsUNDER 8.582%HIGH

He averages 5.3 RPG on the season and 5.1 RPG away, versus an 8.5 line that sits far above his baseline. Even his last 10 rebound average of 6.4 does not close the gap enough.

assistsOVER 160%MEDIUM

He averages 1.0 APG for the season and 1.4 over the last 5 and last 10, so this is a modest over rather than a strong one. The home mean is 1.2, which supports a small lean up.

threesUNDER 3.589%HIGH

He averages 1.32 threes per game on the season and only 0.8 over the last 10, which is well below a 3.5 line. The last 5 is also just 0.6 fg3m per game.

stealsOVER 0.558%MEDIUM

He averages 0.9 steals per game on the season and 0.9 over the last 10, so clearing 0.5 is reasonable. The recent 1.2 steals per game over the last 5 adds some support, though variance is still high.

blocksOVER 0.555%MEDIUM

He averages 0.8 blocks per game on the season, which keeps him above the 0.5 threshold. The last 10 and season numbers are aligned, but the last 5 dipped to 0.4, so confidence stays moderate.

stocksOVER 1.561%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.66 and his last 10 is 1.7, both above 1.5. This is a better fit than the combo scoring props because the baseline is already in range.

turnoversUNDER 1.557%MEDIUM

He averages 1.2 turnovers over the last 20 and 1.5 over the last 10, so a 1.5 line is not a strong over spot. The recent trend is manageable, but not enough to favor the over.

prUNDER 26.586%HIGH

His season points-plus-rebounds profile is roughly 19.0 using 13.8 PPG and 5.3 RPG, far below 26.5. Recent form has improved slightly, but not nearly enough to justify this number.

raUNDER 8.580%HIGH

He averages 5.3 rebounds and 1.0 assists on the season, so his typical RA profile is around 6.3. Even with a recent assist bump, this is still a comfortable under relative to the posted line.

timelineUNDER 19.5 PTS