Jordan Miller▲

LAC · SG

PPG

9.6

RPG

3.0

APG

2.1

L5 PPG

13.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+4.2

9.6

13.8

RPG+0.6

3.0

3.6

APG+1.1

2.1

3.2

SPG+0.3

0.7

1.0

BPG0.0

0.2

OVER 9.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

9.5

GSW

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs GSW: 12 pts

IND

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs IND: 4 pts

SAS

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs SAS: 11 pts

MEM

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs MEM: 14 pts

NYK

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs NYK: 2 pts

MIN

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs MIN: 14 pts

CHI

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs CHI: 14 pts

SAC

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs SAC: 6 pts

SAS

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs SAS: 22 pts

NOP

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs NOP: 13 pts

Over 9.5

Under 9.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 9.5STAKE

58%

REB

OVER 2.5STAKE

55%

AST

OVER 1.5STAKE

60%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

54%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

62%

UNDER 2

64%

P+A

UNDER 21.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

P+R

UNDER 23.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

PRA

UNDER 29.5DRAFTKINGS

72%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

10.1

9.8

RPG

2.6

2.7

APG

3.2

2.3

vs NOP (H2H)2 games

PPG

16.0

RPG

2.5

APG

4.5

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Saddiq Bey	2	9	30%	-32.6%	low
Ochai Agbaji	1	7	30%	-32.6%	low
Bruce Brown	3	7	50%	-2.6%	medium
Keldon Johnson	3	7	64%	+4.5%

Jordan Miller’s minutes are up, but the market still looks too aggressive on his counting stats

Miller’s form has improved recently, with 11.2 PPG over the last 10 and 13.8 PPG over the last 5, but his season baseline is still just 9.6 PPG with 3.0 RPG and 2.1 APG. He is playing more minutes lately at 25.6 MPG versus 21.3 on the season, which helps the floor, but the over-bias warning applies here because several recent spikes are above his longer-run profile. Against New Orleans, he produced 13 points, 3 rebounds, 1 assist, and 2 steals in 23 minutes on 2026-03-18, while his two-game sample vs this opponent is 16.0 PPG and 4.5 APG. With both teams on a back-to-back, the safest angles lean toward moderate volume and lower-end outcomes rather than chasing an inflated ceiling.

Stat Trends

PPG

13.8(↑ from 9.6)

RPG

3.6(→ from 3.0)

APG

3.2(↑ from 2.1)

SPG

1.0(↑ from 0.7)

Key Matchup

The opponent context shows no specific defender matchup data, so there is no named one-on-one matchup to target. New Orleans has a 119.56 defensive rating with 0.958 scoring suppression, which does not suggest an easy scoring environment, even with Miller’s prior 16.0 PPG in two games against this opponent.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Jordan Miller▼	Points	9.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	11	✓
Jordan Miller▼	Rebounds	2.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	8	✓
Jordan Miller▼	Assists	1.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	5	✓
Jordan Miller▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	60%	1	✓
Jordan Miller▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	—	70%	1	✓
Jordan Miller▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	—	100%	0	✓
Jordan Miller▼	P+A	21.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	90%	16	✓
Jordan Miller▼	P+R	23.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	90%	19	✓
Jordan Miller▼	PRA	29.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	1/2	90%	24	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PTS9.5OVER31%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (14/20)OVER 3x15/2075%+20.1% edge▼

P+A14UNDER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (13/20)9/2045%▼

REB3.5UNDER55%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 3x5/2025%+11.8% edgeConfidence moved LOW to HIGH▼

AST2.5OVER8%gbt_assistsDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%▼

PRA15.5UNDER1%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)12/2060%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge shifted -0.200▼

R+A6UNDER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)8/2040%▼

P+R14OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%▼

FTM1.5UNDER18%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

3PA1UNDER11%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 4x8/2040%▼

FTA2UNDER21%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

Featured Pick

Jordan Miller

PRA UNDER 29.5HIGH

His season PRA is about 14.7, and even the last 5 stretch only gets him to roughly 20.6. The market line of 29.5 is far above both his season and recent production, making the under the clearest value angle.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Saddiq Bey	2	9	3	20%	30%
Bryce McGowens	1	5	2	0%	0%
Herbert Jones	3	3	0	0%	0%
Jeremiah Fears	3	2	4	67%	67%
Karlo Matković	3	2	2	33%	33%

pointsOVER 9.558%MEDIUM

His season mean is 9.6 PPG and the current line is 9.5, while recent minutes have climbed to 25.6 MPG. Even so, the last 5 is 13.8, so this is not a high-confidence play and is vulnerable to regression.

reboundsOVER 2.555%MEDIUM

He averages 3.0 RPG on the season and 3.6 over the last 5, which keeps him slightly above this number. The edge is modest because his rebound role is still fairly low-volume.

assistsOVER 1.560%MEDIUM

Miller’s season average is 2.1 APG and his last 10 is 2.7 APG, both above the line. Recent usage has supported playmaking, though the variance is still high with a 1.93 season standard deviation.

stealsOVER 0.554%MEDIUM

He averages 0.7 SPG on the season and 0.8 over the last 10, so a single steal is within range. This is a low-margin prop, but the recent uptick supports a slight lean over.

stocksUNDER 1.562%MEDIUM

Season stocks are 0.91 and the last 10 is 1.0, both below a typical 1.5 threshold. The combined defensive production is too modest to justify an over at that level.

turnoversUNDER 264%MEDIUM

He has only 1.1 turnovers per game over the last 20 and 0.9 over the last 10. With that profile, going over 2.0 requires an outlier ball-handling game.

paUNDER 21.566%MEDIUM

His season points+assists profile is about 11.7, and even the last 10 sits near 13.9, well below this line. The recent surge in minutes helps, but not enough to bridge the gap to 21.5.

prUNDER 23.568%MEDIUM

He averages 12.6 points+rebounds on the season and is still only around 14.2 over the last 10. This line is much higher than his normal output and fits an under.

praUNDER 29.572%HIGH

His season points+rebounds+assists production is roughly 14.7, and the last 5 is about 20.6, still far below 29.5. Combo variance adds risk, but the gap to the line is large enough to favor the under.

timelineOVER 9.5 PTS