AI Model:

Kawhi Leonard▼

LAC · SF

PPG

28.3

RPG

6.4

APG

3.6

L5 PPG

31.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+3.3

28.3

31.6

RPG-0.4

6.4

6.0

APG-0.2

3.6

3.4

SPG-0.2

2.0

1.8

BPG-0.4

0.4

0.0

UNDER 28.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

28.5

NOP

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs NOP: 23 pts

GSW

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs GSW: 23 pts

IND

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs IND: 29 pts

SAS

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs SAS: 30 pts

MEM

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs MEM: 28 pts

NYK

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs NYK: 29 pts

MIN

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs MIN: 45 pts

CHI

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs CHI: 28 pts

SAC

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs SAC: 31 pts

NOP

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs NOP: 25 pts

Over 28.5

Under 28.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 28.5FANDUEL

62%

REB

UNDER 6.5FANDUEL

58%

AST

UNDER 3.5FANDUEL

61%

3PM

OVER 2.5FANDUEL

60%

STL

OVER 1.5FANDUEL

64%

BLK

UNDER 0.5BETMGM

75%

STL+BLK

UNDER 2.5

57%

OVER 2

56%

PRA

UNDER 39.5FANDUEL

59%

P+A

UNDER 33.5FANDUEL

63%

UNDER 0.5

78%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

29.9

28.5

RPG

5.6

7.9

APG

4.0

3.6

vs NOP (H2H)13 games

PPG

24.5

RPG

6.3

APG

3.6

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jaden McDaniels	3	18	67%	+16.2%	medium
Kevin Durant	3	14	31%	-25.5%	medium
Toumani Camara	3	13	50%	-14.1%	medium
Stephon Castle	2	13	63%

Kawhi’s scoring floor stays high, but the full stat stack looks priced correctly

Kawhi Leonard is coming in with elite season production at 28.3 PPG, 6.4 RPG, and 3.6 APG across 53 games, and his recent scoring is even stronger at 31.6 PPG over the last 5. That said, his trend is marked down and the current market is already high on points at 28.5, which sits above his season mean but close to his recent form. Against New Orleans, his head-to-head scoring drops to 24.54 PPG over 13 games, and this is another back-to-back spot where his season b2b scoring baseline is 27.22 PPG. The matchup data shows no clear defensive shutdown signal from the provided defender list, so the edge comes more from role and pricing than from an obvious matchup boost.

Stat Trends

PPG

31.6(↑ from 28.3)

RPG

6.0(→ from 6.4)

APG

3.4(→ from 3.6)

STL

1.8(→ from 2.0)

Key Matchup

The provided opponent data shows no specific defender matchup data, so there is no named individual matchup edge to target. New Orleans has a 119.56 defensive rating, pace of 100, and scoring suppression of 0.958, which supports a slightly tougher scoring environment than a pure pace-up spot.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend
Kawhi Leonard▼	Points	28.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	1/2	50%
Kawhi Leonard▼	Rebounds	6.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	50%
Kawhi Leonard▼	Assists	3.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	60%
Kawhi Leonard▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	40%
Kawhi Leonard▼	Steals	1.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	70%
Kawhi Leonard▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	75%HIGH	—	100%
Kawhi Leonard▼	STL+BLK	2.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	—	90%
Kawhi Leonard▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	56%MEDIUM	—	20%
Kawhi Leonard▼	PRA	39.5	UNDER	59%MEDIUM	2/2	70%
Kawhi Leonard▼	P+A	33.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	80%
Kawhi Leonard▼	Double-Double	0.5	UNDER	78%HIGH	—	—

ML Scout Analysis

AST3.5OVER6%logisticDecent Leg (13/20)9/2045%No material changes▼

R+A9.5OVER0%logisticDecent Leg (13/20)10/2050%▼

PTS28.5UNDER20%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 7x8/2040%+9.3% edgeConfidence moved LOW to MEDIUM; Line moved -1.0; Value edge changed -0.052▼

REB6.5UNDER2%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%+5.3% edgeConfidence moved MEDIUM to LOW; Value edge changed -0.032; Odds moved materially▼

P+R34.5UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 4x9/2045%▼

P+A32UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 7x6/2030%▼

3PM2.5UNDER4%logisticWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x10/2050%No material changes▼

PRA39.5UNDER19%logisticWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 4x7/2035%+11.3% edgePrediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge shifted +0.296; Scorecard changed -2.0▼

STL1.5UNDER19%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)12/2060%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

Featured Pick

Kawhi Leonard

Blocks UNDER 0.5HIGH

This is the cleanest play because the season block average is 0.4 and he has 0.0 blocks in both the last 5 and last 10. The market line of 0.5 is above his baseline, and there is no recent shot-blocking trend to support an over.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Trey Murphy III	2	9	11	80%	110%
Herbert Jones	3	6	3	50%	75%
Zion Williamson	1	4	2	100%	100%
Saddiq Bey	2	3	0	0%	0%
Karlo Matković	2	3	2	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 28.562%MEDIUM

His season mean is 28.3, but his vs-opponent scoring is only 24.53846153846154 across 13 games. With the trend marked down and this being a back-to-back, the under has a slight edge despite strong recent form.

reboundsUNDER 6.558%MEDIUM

He averages 6.4 rebounds on the season and 6.3 over the last 10, both just below the 6.5 line. The b2b rebound baseline is 6.44, which still points to a narrow lean under.

assistsUNDER 3.561%MEDIUM

His season assist average is 3.62 and recent mean is 3.3, so the market line is slightly inflated relative to his typical output. The recent game log shows several low-assist outings, including 1, 0, and 2 in three of the last five.

threesOVER 2.560%MEDIUM

He averages 2.6 made threes on the season and 2.4 over the last 5, with recent volume at 3.2 attempts per game from deep. The 2.5 line is playable, though his recent trend is slightly softer than his season norm.

stealsOVER 1.564%MEDIUM

He averages exactly 2.0 steals per game on the season and 1.8 over the last 10, which keeps him above the 1.5 threshold. His stocks remain strong at 1.8 to 1.9 recently, supporting defensive counting stats.

blocksUNDER 0.575%HIGH

His season block average is only 0.4 and he has 0.0 blocks in both the last 5 and last 10. That makes the under the clearest value on the board.

stocksUNDER 2.557%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 2.43, but the recent mean is 1.8 and the b2b stocks baseline is 1.89. With that recent pullback, the under is slightly favored.

turnoversOVER 256%MEDIUM

He is at 2.1 turnovers over the last 20 and 2.2 over the last 5, with season turnover pressure also elevated in the recent sample. The line is right on his typical range, but recent volume nudges over.

praUNDER 39.559%MEDIUM

His season PRA from the provided means is 28.3 + 6.4 + 3.6 = 38.3, and his recent form is 31.6 + 6.0 + 3.4 = 41.0. Because combo props carry extra variance, the lean stays under slightly at the 39.5 market.

paUNDER 33.563%MEDIUM

His season points-plus-assists baseline is 31.92, below the 33.5 line, and his recent average is 34.9. Given the line sits above season production and he is on a back-to-back, the under is preferable.

double_doubleUNDER 0.578%HIGH

He does not show consistent double-double volume from the provided scoring and rebounding profile, with season averages of 28.3 points and 6.4 rebounds. He is more likely to land in a high-scoring single-category game than a true double-double.

timelineUNDER 28.5 PTS