Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaden McDaniels | 3 | 18 | 67% | +16.2% | medium |
| Kevin Durant | 3 | 14 | 31% | -25.5% | medium |
| Toumani Camara | 3 | 13 | 50% | -14.1% | medium |
| Stephon Castle | 2 | 13 | 63% |
Kawhi Leonard is coming in with elite season production at 28.3 PPG, 6.4 RPG, and 3.6 APG across 53 games, and his recent scoring is even stronger at 31.6 PPG over the last 5. That said, his trend is marked down and the current market is already high on points at 28.5, which sits above his season mean but close to his recent form. Against New Orleans, his head-to-head scoring drops to 24.54 PPG over 13 games, and this is another back-to-back spot where his season b2b scoring baseline is 27.22 PPG. The matchup data shows no clear defensive shutdown signal from the provided defender list, so the edge comes more from role and pricing than from an obvious matchup boost.
The provided opponent data shows no specific defender matchup data, so there is no named individual matchup edge to target. New Orleans has a 119.56 defensive rating, pace of 100, and scoring suppression of 0.958, which supports a slightly tougher scoring environment than a pure pace-up spot.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kawhi Leonard▼ | Points | 28.5 | UNDER | 62%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 50% |
Kawhi Leonard▼ | Rebounds | 6.5 | UNDER | 58%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 50% |
Kawhi Leonard▼ | Assists | 3.5 | UNDER | 61%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% |
Kawhi Leonard▼ | 3PM | 2.5 | OVER | 60%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 40% |
Kawhi Leonard▼ | Steals | 1.5 | OVER | 64%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 70% |
Kawhi Leonard▼ | Blocks | 0.5 | UNDER | 75%HIGH | — | 100% |
Kawhi Leonard▼ | STL+BLK | 2.5 | UNDER | 57%MEDIUM | — | 90% |
Kawhi Leonard▼ | Turnovers | 2 | OVER | 56%MEDIUM | — | 20% |
Kawhi Leonard▼ | PRA | 39.5 | UNDER | 59%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 70% |
Kawhi Leonard▼ | P+A | 33.5 | UNDER | 63%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 80% |
Kawhi Leonard▼ | Double-Double | 0.5 | UNDER | 78%HIGH | — | — |
This is the cleanest play because the season block average is 0.4 and he has 0.0 blocks in both the last 5 and last 10. The market line of 0.5 is above his baseline, and there is no recent shot-blocking trend to support an over.
| low |
| LeBron James | 4 | 12 | 50% | -0.5% | medium |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Murphy III | 2 | 9 | 11 | 80% | 110% |
| Herbert Jones | 3 | 6 | 3 | 50% | 75% |
| Zion Williamson | 1 | 4 | 2 | 100% | 100% |
| Saddiq Bey | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Karlo Matković | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0% | 0% |
His season mean is 28.3, but his vs-opponent scoring is only 24.53846153846154 across 13 games. With the trend marked down and this being a back-to-back, the under has a slight edge despite strong recent form.
He averages 6.4 rebounds on the season and 6.3 over the last 10, both just below the 6.5 line. The b2b rebound baseline is 6.44, which still points to a narrow lean under.
His season assist average is 3.62 and recent mean is 3.3, so the market line is slightly inflated relative to his typical output. The recent game log shows several low-assist outings, including 1, 0, and 2 in three of the last five.
He averages 2.6 made threes on the season and 2.4 over the last 5, with recent volume at 3.2 attempts per game from deep. The 2.5 line is playable, though his recent trend is slightly softer than his season norm.
He averages exactly 2.0 steals per game on the season and 1.8 over the last 10, which keeps him above the 1.5 threshold. His stocks remain strong at 1.8 to 1.9 recently, supporting defensive counting stats.
His season block average is only 0.4 and he has 0.0 blocks in both the last 5 and last 10. That makes the under the clearest value on the board.
His season stocks average is 2.43, but the recent mean is 1.8 and the b2b stocks baseline is 1.89. With that recent pullback, the under is slightly favored.
He is at 2.1 turnovers over the last 20 and 2.2 over the last 5, with season turnover pressure also elevated in the recent sample. The line is right on his typical range, but recent volume nudges over.
His season PRA from the provided means is 28.3 + 6.4 + 3.6 = 38.3, and his recent form is 31.6 + 6.0 + 3.4 = 41.0. Because combo props carry extra variance, the lean stays under slightly at the 39.5 market.
His season points-plus-assists baseline is 31.92, below the 33.5 line, and his recent average is 34.9. Given the line sits above season production and he is on a back-to-back, the under is preferable.
He does not show consistent double-double volume from the provided scoring and rebounding profile, with season averages of 28.3 points and 6.4 rebounds. He is more likely to land in a high-scoring single-category game than a true double-double.