AI Model:

Trey Murphy III▼

NOP · SG

PPG

21.9

RPG

5.7

APG

3.9

L5 PPG

21.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-0.7

21.9

21.2

RPG+0.7

5.7

6.4

APG+1.3

3.9

5.2

SPG+0.2

1.6

1.8

BPG+0.1

0.3

0.4

UNDER 23.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

23.5

MIA

2026-02-11

2026-02-11 vs MIA: 19 pts

LAC

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs LAC: 16 pts

LAL

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs LAL: 21 pts

SAC

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs SAC: 21 pts

PHX

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs PHX: 22 pts

WAS

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs WAS: 24 pts

TOR

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs TOR: 28 pts

HOU

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs HOU: 14 pts

DAL

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs DAL: 17 pts

LAC

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs LAC: 23 pts

Over 23.5

Under 23.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 23.5FANDUEL

64%

REB

OVER 5.5STAKE

58%

AST

OVER 2.5FANDUEL

66%

3PM

UNDER 3.5FANDUEL

63%

STL

OVER 1.5STAKE

57%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

67%

STL+BLK

UNDER 2.5

60%

UNDER 2

59%

P+R

UNDER 27.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

P+A

UNDER 27.5DRAFTKINGS

62%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

19.6

22.4

RPG

4.6

5.1

APG

4.5

4.7

vs LAC (H2H)15 games

PPG

13.6

RPG

3.4

APG

2.3

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jaylen Wells	4	15	58%	+3.0%	medium
Devin Vassell	4	14	35%	-23.9%	medium
Jabari Smith Jr.	3	14	73%	+7.5%	medium
Jaden McDaniels	3	14	44%

Trey Murphy III enters with strong all-around form, but points and threes are priced near his ceiling

Trey Murphy III is producing 21.9 PPG, 5.7 RPG, and 3.9 APG on the season while logging 35.4 MPG, and his last 5 have stayed solid at 21.2/6.4/5.2. The recent trend is slightly down in scoring, but his home split still sits at 19.6 PPG and his away split at 22.4 PPG, so the matchup environment matters more than venue here. Against the Clippers specifically, his last game produced 23 points, 7 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 steals, and 1 block, but his broader vs-opponent history is only 13.6 PPG in 15 games. With B2B context for both teams and a current opponent profile showing 112.97 defensive rating and 1.001 three suppression, the best angles lean a bit away from ceiling scoring and toward steadier secondary stats.

Stat Trends

PPG

21.2(↓ from 21.9)

RPG

6.4(↑ from 5.7)

APG

5.2(↑ from 3.9)

Stocks

2.2(↑ from 1.9)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, so the safest read is on the team-level opponent profile. The Clippers’ defense is listed with a 112.97 defensive rating and 1.001 three suppression, while his vs-opponent history shows just 13.6 PPG across 15 games.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Trey Murphy III▼	Points	23.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	27	✗
Trey Murphy III▼	Rebounds	5.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	5	✗
Trey Murphy III▼	Assists	2.5	OVER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	100%	2	✗
Trey Murphy III▼	3PM	3.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	5	✗
Trey Murphy III▼	Steals	1.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	1	✗
Trey Murphy III▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	—	60%	0	✓
Trey Murphy III▼	STL+BLK	2.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	—	50%	1	✓
Trey Murphy III▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	59%MEDIUM	—	60%	3	✗
Trey Murphy III▼	P+R	27.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	32	✗
Trey Murphy III▼	P+A	27.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	29	✗

ML Scout Analysis

P+R27OVER0%logisticDecent Leg (14/20)UNDER 4x10/2050%▼

R+A9.5OVER0%logisticDecent Leg (13/20)11/2055%▼

P+A25.5UNDER0%logisticDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 4x9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Trey Murphy III

Assists OVER 2.5MEDIUM

This is the cleanest number on the board relative to his production: 3.9 APG season-long and 5.2 APG over the last 5. The line is well below both his season and recent averages, making it more stable than the higher-variance scoring and combo props.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Derrick Jones Jr.	4	14	18	67%	75%
Kawhi Leonard	3	8	20	67%	79%
Jordan Miller	3	5	14	83%	92%
John Collins	4	5	9	38%	38%
Kris Dunn	4	4	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 23.564%MEDIUM

His season mean is 21.9 PPG and last 10 is 20.5, both below 23.5. The recent trend is down, and his vs-opponent scoring history is just 13.6 PPG across 15 games.

reboundsOVER 5.558%MEDIUM

He averages 5.7 RPG on the season and 5.5 over the last 5, with 7 rebounds in his most recent game vs this opponent. The away split is 5.86 RPG, which slightly supports the over.

assistsOVER 2.566%MEDIUM

His season mark is 3.9 APG and his last 5 jumped to 5.2 APG, well above 2.5. Even with B2B assist context at 3.38, the baseline is still comfortably above the line.

threesUNDER 3.563%MEDIUM

He averages 3.3 made threes on the season and 3.5 over the last 5, but that recent pace is not enough to justify a 3.5 over at a standard sportsbook price. The opponent’s three suppression is listed at 1.001, which adds some downside risk.

stealsOVER 1.557%MEDIUM

He averages 1.6 steals on the season and 1.7 over the last 10, so 1.5 is a reachable line. His recent 5-game steal rate is 1.8, and his stocks production remains strong overall.

blocksUNDER 0.567%MEDIUM

He averages only 0.3 blocks per game on the season and 0.4 over the last 5. Even though he had 1 block in his last game, the season-long profile still points under 0.5.

stocksUNDER 2.560%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.89 and last 10 is 2.1, both below a 2.5 threshold. The recent uptick is real, but it still leaves limited margin.

turnoversUNDER 259%MEDIUM

His last 5 turnovers are exactly 2.0, but his last 10 are 1.8 and last 20 are 1.8. That makes 2.0 a slightly high bar relative to his longer sample.

prUNDER 27.560%MEDIUM

Season averages of 21.9 points and 5.7 rebounds sum to 27.6, but the B2B-adjusted environment and his recent 20.5 PPG scoring trend soften the over. This combo also carries more variance than a single-stat bet.

paUNDER 27.562%MEDIUM

His season points plus assists profile is 25.8, and last 10 is 25.2, both under 27.5. The recent assist rise helps, but not enough to fully bridge the gap.

timelineUNDER 23.5 PTS