AI Model:

Zion Williamson—

NOP · PF

PPG

21.4

RPG

5.8

APG

3.3

L5 PPG

20.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-1.2

21.4

20.2

RPG-1.6

5.8

4.2

APG-1.3

3.3

2.0

SPG-0.6

1.0

0.4

BPG0.0

0.6

UNDER 21.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

21.5

UTA

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs UTA: 20 pts

UTA

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs UTA: 4 pts

LAL

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs LAL: 24 pts

SAC

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs SAC: 23 pts

PHX

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs PHX: 19 pts

WAS

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs WAS: 20 pts

TOR

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs TOR: 19 pts

HOU

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs HOU: 21 pts

DAL

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs DAL: 27 pts

LAC

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs LAC: 14 pts

Over 21.5

Under 21.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 21.5STAKE

58%

REB

OVER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

AST

UNDER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

3PM

UNDER 0.5

92%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

54%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

55%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

57%

UNDER 2

60%

P+R

UNDER 22.5DRAFTKINGS

54%

P+A

OVER 25.5DRAFTKINGS

52%

R+A

OVER 8.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

22.3

18.5

RPG

4.6

5.8

APG

3.2

3.0

vs LAC (H2H)10 games

PPG

23.5

RPG

5.7

APG

5.5

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Precious Achiuwa	3	17	33%	-26.7%	medium
Jabari Smith Jr.	4	17	44%	-26.7%	medium
Jaren Jackson Jr.	4	14	66%	-5.5%	medium
P.J. Washington	3	11	88%

Zion’s scoring line looks modest, but recent production and B2B context keep the board tricky

Zion Williamson is averaging 21.4 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 3.3 assists on the season across 29.6 minutes, with his last 5 sitting at 20.2, 4.2, and 2.0. His recent scoring has been stable rather than surging, and the last 10 games show a slightly lower 19.1 PPG with 28.6 minutes per game. He has been better at home than away in points, but his rebound numbers are more modest at home, and this matchup comes on a back-to-back for both teams. The one strong signal is his history vs this opponent: 23.5 PPG, 5.7 RPG, and 5.5 APG in 10 games.

Stat Trends

PPG

20.2(↓ from 21.4)

RPG

4.2(↓ from 5.8)

APG

2.0(↓ from 3.3)

Key Matchup

The opponent data shows a 112.97 defensive rating and 100 pace, while Zion has averaged 23.5 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 5.5 assists in 10 games against this team. Key defender data is limited, and there is no specific defender matchup data to lean on beyond the listed names and small sample minutes.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Zion Williamson▼	Points	21.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	15	✓
Zion Williamson▼	Rebounds	4.5	OVER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	5	✓
Zion Williamson▼	Assists	3.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	2	✓
Zion Williamson▼	3PM	0.5	UNDER	92%HIGH	—	100%	0	✓
Zion Williamson▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	50%	3	✓
Zion Williamson▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	—	70%	0	✓
Zion Williamson▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	—	80%	3	✗
Zion Williamson▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	—	80%	2	✗
Zion Williamson▼	P+R	22.5	UNDER	54%MEDIUM	1/2	30%	20	✓
Zion Williamson▼	P+A	25.5	OVER	52%MEDIUM	2/2	20%	17	✗
Zion Williamson▼	R+A	8.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	30%	7	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PRA31.5UNDER39%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 4x6/2030%+19.0% edge▼

PTS22.5UNDER11%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 7x5/2025%+20.1% edge▼

P+R24.5OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 4x11/2055%▼

P+A21.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 4x12/2060%▼

REB6.5UNDER56%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)4/2020%+20.8% edge▼

FTA8UNDER29%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)7/2035%▼

AST3.5UNDER16%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 4x5/2025%+13.5% edge▼

FTM5UNDER31%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)7/2035%▼

R+A7.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Zion Williamson

Rebounds OVER 4.5HIGH

This is the best value signal in the data, with a 17.1% edge on DraftKings and an estimated 32.06 EV per 100. Zion’s season average is 5.8 rebounds, so the 4.5 line is well below his baseline even after accounting for recent softness.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
John Collins	3	7	6	29%	36%
Kawhi Leonard	2	6	13	67%	92%
Derrick Jones Jr.	3	6	6	67%	67%
Brook Lopez	3	4	1	0%	0%
Kris Dunn	3	2	3	33%	50%

pointsUNDER 21.558%MEDIUM

His season mean is 21.4 and recent form is below that at 20.2 over the last 5 and 19.1 over the last 10. The current 21.5 line is close enough to the season baseline that the slight downward trend and B2B context make the under playable.

reboundsOVER 4.566%MEDIUM

He averages 5.8 rebounds for the season and the value data shows a strong over case at 4.5 with a 17.1% edge on DraftKings. Even with last 5 rebounds at 4.2, the season and away/b2b context support clearing this number.

assistsUNDER 3.556%MEDIUM

His season assist average is 3.3 and the last 5 is only 2.0, while the value props also flag under 3.5 as the best side. The line is slightly above his season baseline, and the recent passing output has been muted.

threesUNDER 0.592%HIGH

He is averaging 0.02 made threes on the season and 0.0 in the last 5 and last 10, so an over would require a highly unusual outcome. This is the cleanest under on the board based on his shooting profile.

stealsOVER 0.554%MEDIUM

His season average is 1.0 steals and his last 10 is 0.8, so he still has meaningful steal volume. The line is low enough that one steal is a realistic outcome despite some recent volatility.

blocksUNDER 0.555%MEDIUM

He averages 0.6 blocks on the season, but the last 10 is down to 0.4 and the recent sample does not show strong block upside. With a standard line at 0.5, this is close, but the recent trend leans under.

stocksUNDER 1.557%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.55, but the last 5 is only 1.0 and the last 10 is 1.2. Because stocks are volatile and recent production is below the season mark, the under is slightly preferable.

turnoversUNDER 260%MEDIUM

He is at 1.7 turnovers per game over the last 20 and 1.6 over the last 10, which sits below a 2.0 threshold. The recent game log also shows multiple one- and two-turnover outings.

prUNDER 22.554%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds are 27.2, but combo props carry extra variance and his recent rebound trend has been weaker. With points around his baseline and rebounds below it, this line is less comfortable than the straight rebounds prop.

paOVER 25.552%MEDIUM

His season points plus assists total is 24.7, but his head-to-head average vs this opponent is 29.0 combined points and assists. That said, combo volatility is high, so confidence stays modest.

raOVER 8.563%MEDIUM

He averages 11.6 rebounds plus assists on the season and 9.9 over the last 5, so this line sits below his typical combined production. The recent dip keeps it from being stronger, but it still grades as an over.

timelineUNDER 21.5 PTS