AI Model:

Austin Reaves▼

LAL · SG

PPG

23.6

RPG

4.7

APG

5.6

L5 PPG

24.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+0.8

23.6

24.4

RPG+0.3

4.7

5.0

APG+1.2

5.6

6.8

SPG+0.1

1.1

1.2

BPG+0.2

0.4

0.6

UNDER 18.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

18.5

SAC

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs SAC: 12 pts

NOP

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs NOP: 15 pts

DEN

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs DEN: 16 pts

IND

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs IND: 19 pts

NYK

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs NYK: 25 pts

MIN

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MIN: 31 pts

CHI

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs CHI: 30 pts

DEN

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs DEN: 32 pts

HOU

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs HOU: 15 pts

HOU

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs HOU: 14 pts

Over 18.5

Under 18.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 18.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

REB

UNDER 5.5DRAFTKINGS

72%

AST

OVER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

3PM

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

STL

OVER 0.8

58%

BLK

UNDER 0.5

61%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

64%

UNDER 2

67%

P+A

OVER 25.5FANDUEL

58%

P+R

UNDER 26.5FANDUEL

60%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

22.2

15.3

RPG

4.6

3.2

APG

4.9

4.3

vs MIA (H2H)7 games

PPG

14.3

RPG

3.9

APG

6.7

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Donte DiVincenzo	4	17	77%	+5.5%	medium
Keyonte George	2	11	91%	+32.8%	low
Anthony Edwards	3	9	39%	-15.7%	medium
Brandin Podziemski	3	8	25%

Reaves’ scoring line is inflated, but playmaking and threes remain in play

Austin Reaves is averaging 23.6 PPG, 5.6 APG, and 4.7 RPG on the season, but his recent scoring has cooled to 20.9 PPG over the last 10 and 20.1 over the last 20, signaling regression from the hotter last-5 stretch. He is also coming off a back-to-back as the Lakers are on 1 day of rest, which can add fatigue and make it harder to sustain the 34.3 season-minute workload, especially with his last-5 minutes up to 40.4. Miami's defense context is mixed, but Reaves’ head-to-head scoring vs this opponent is just 14.3 PPG across 7 games, which is well below his season norm. The best path here is to lean under on the more inflated points and rebound numbers while respecting his steady assist and three-point volume.

Stat Trends

PPG

24.4(↑ from 23.6)

RPG

5.0(→ from 4.7)

APG

6.8(↑ from 5.6)

3PM

2.4(→ from 2.4)

Key Matchup

Miami’s defense context shows a 116.74 defensive rating, pace of 100, and scoring suppression of 0.314. The key defender data is present, but there is no single clear primary matchup to isolate from the provided information, so no specific defender matchup data.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Austin Reaves▼	Points	18.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	18	✓
Austin Reaves▼	Rebounds	5.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	1/2	70%	5	✓
Austin Reaves▼	Assists	4.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	90%	4	✗
Austin Reaves▼	3PM	2.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	2	✓
Austin Reaves▼	Steals	0.8	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	0	✗
Austin Reaves▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	—	40%	0	✓
Austin Reaves▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	—	60%	0	✗
Austin Reaves▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	—	60%	2	✗
Austin Reaves▼	P+A	25.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	22	✗
Austin Reaves▼	P+R	26.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	23	✓

ML Scout Analysis

R+A9.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%▼

P+R25UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%▼

P+A26UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Austin Reaves

Rebounds UNDER 5.5HIGH

This is the cleanest value angle in the data: his season rebound average is 4.7, last-10 is 4.4, and the value feed shows a strong under edge at 5.5. The back-to-back context also matters, with his b2b rebound mean listed at 3.17, making it hard to justify an over.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Davion Mitchell	2	8	9	100%	113%
Pelle Larsson	2	4	8	50%	50%
Dru Smith	2	3	0	0%	0%
Tyler Herro	1	3	13	71%	86%
Andrew Wiggins	1	2	3	25%	38%

pointsUNDER 18.568%MEDIUM

His season scoring is 23.6 PPG, but the recent mean is 20.9 and his vs-opponent scoring is only 14.3 PPG over 7 games. With a back-to-back and a trend marked down, the under is the safer side.

reboundsUNDER 5.572%HIGH

Reaves is at 4.7 RPG on the season and 4.4 over the last 10, both below this line. Value data also flags the under at 5.5 with a strong edge, and his rebound output drops to 3.17 in b2b settings.

assistsOVER 4.563%MEDIUM

He averages 5.6 APG for the season and 5.9 over the last 10, with 6.8 APG over the last 5. Even with some regression risk, the assist line is still below his normal production.

threesUNDER 2.566%MEDIUM

Reaves averages 2.37 made threes per game, but his recent mean is 2.1 and the 2.5 line asks for above-average efficiency. The under is supported by the more conservative season baseline.

stealsOVER 0.858%MEDIUM

He averages 1.1 steals per game on the season and 1.4 over the last 10, so a low steals threshold is reachable. The recent defensive activity is better than his baseline.

blocksUNDER 0.561%MEDIUM

His season block rate is 0.4 per game, below a 0.5 line, and the season standard deviation on blocks is not provided as high-volume enough to justify an over lean. This is a light under based on role and averages.

stocksOVER 1.564%MEDIUM

He averages 1.51 stocks on the season and 2.2 over the last 10, which clears a 1.5 line by a small margin. The recent defensive playmaking is strong enough to support the over, though confidence is only moderate.

turnoversUNDER 267%MEDIUM

His last-5 turnovers are 1.8 and last-20 are 2.5, but the recent game log includes several 1-turnover outings. With a season of 34.3 minutes and ball-handling load, the line is playable but the under is the slightly safer side.

paOVER 25.558%MEDIUM

His season points plus assists profile is strong at 23.6 PPG and 5.6 APG, and his recent assist bump helps offset scoring regression. Combo props carry more variance, so confidence stays modest.

prUNDER 26.560%MEDIUM

Points plus rebounds should lean closer to his season baseline of 28.3 combined, but the current 26.5 line is still not cheap given the away/b2b context. Rebound production sits below the line expectation, which makes the under viable.

timelineUNDER 18.5 PTS