SF

LeBron James▲

LAL · SF

LeBron is below his season scoring average over the last 5 at 19.8 PPG, but he’s still filling the box score with 5.4 APG and 2.6 stocks in that span. Since the Lakers are on a back-to-back, workload and pacing are important, and his scoring line looks more fragile than his all-around production.

C

Bam Adebayo▼

MIA · C

Bam’s last 5 are extreme at 34.4 PPG, but his season is 19.8 PPG and his last 10 are 28.7 PPG, so the current scoring run is far above baseline and likely to regress. Rebounds are the steadier category with 9.5 over the last 10 and 9.7 for the season, and his elite recent scoring makes his points props difficult to trust at inflated numbers.

SG

Tyler Herro▼

MIA · SG

Herro’s last 5 show 22.6 PPG, 6.6 RPG, and 5.4 APG, but his last 10 are softer at 20.6 PPG and 5.1 APG, so the current form is strong but not as clean as the short sample suggests. He’s a high-minute starter at 30.5 MPG on the season, and his points plus threes profiles are more attractive than a pass-heavy combo unless the line is soft.

C

Kel'el Ware—

MIA · C

Ware’s season rebound number is 9.4 and his last 10 are exactly 9.4, which makes rebounds the most stable category here. His recent points dipped to 9.6 over the last 5, but the rebound volume and recent 28.0 MPG keep his board line relevant.

SF

Pelle Larsson▲

MIA · SF

Larsson is trending up with 15.4 PPG over the last 5 against 10.9 for the season, and his minutes have climbed to 31.6 in that span. That said, his recent game log is volatile, including 14, 15, 28, 10, and 10 points, so points overs carry more variance than the short hot streak implies.