Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Black | 4 | 16 | 50% | +2.7% | medium |
| Mikal Bridges | 4 | 14 | 100% | +27.7% | medium |
| Landry Shamet | 3 | 13 | 70% | +2.7% | medium |
| Jalen Suggs | 5 | 13 | 56% |
Norman Powell is averaging 22.4 PPG, but his recent form has cooled to 18.2 PPG over the last 5 and 19.4 over the last 10, with minutes down to 25.8 in the last 5 from 30.1 on the season. At home he has been noticeably stronger, posting 24.7 PPG with 3.6 threes per game, which is a positive in Miami, but his matchup history vs this opponent is only 16.87 PPG across 15 games. The opponent profile also matters here: a 114.99 defensive rating, 100 pace, and -0.305 three suppression point to a tougher scoring environment for a perimeter scorer. With the current line sitting around 21.5, the season-vs-recent blend keeps this close, but the recent dip and tougher opponent context make the under slightly more appealing.
No specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, and the team context is what stands out most: a 114.99 defensive rating, 100 pace, and -0.305 three suppression all lean against a ceiling game. Powell’s 15-game history vs this opponent is only 16.87 PPG, which is well below his season average.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Norman Powell▼ | Points | 21.5 | UNDER | 62%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% | 20 | ✓ |
Norman Powell▼ | Rebounds | 3.5 | UNDER | 67%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 70% | 2 | ✓ |
Norman Powell▼ | Assists | 2.5 | UNDER | 60%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% | 3 | ✗ |
Norman Powell▼ | 3PM | 2.5 | UNDER | 64%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 60% | 1 | ✓ |
Norman Powell▼ | Steals | 1.5 | UNDER | 70%HIGH | 2/2 | 70% | 1 | ✓ |
Norman Powell▼ | Blocks | 0.5 | UNDER | 78%HIGH | — | 70% | 1 | ✗ |
Norman Powell▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | UNDER | 58%MEDIUM | — | 70% | 2 | ✗ |
Norman Powell▼ | Turnovers | 2 | OVER | 63%MEDIUM | — | 40% | 1 | ✗ |
Norman Powell▼ | P+R | 25.5 | UNDER | 61%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 70% | 22 | ✓ |
Norman Powell▼ | P+A | 24.5 | UNDER | 64%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 70% | 23 | ✓ |
This is the cleanest angle in the set because Powell averages just 0.2 blocks on the season and 0.4 over the last 5. The line is simply too high relative to his baseline, making the under the strongest bet.
| medium |
| AJ Green | 2 | 9 | 50% | -14.0% | low |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 0% |
| Rui Hachimura | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Jake LaRavia | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Austin Reaves | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0% |
| Luke Kennard | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
He has averaged 18.2 PPG over the last 5 and 19.4 over the last 10, both below the 21.5 line. He is stronger at home at 24.7 PPG, but the opponent context and his 16.87 PPG in 15 games vs this team keep the under playable.
Powell averages 3.7 rebounds on the season, but just 3.0 over the last 10 and 3.6 over the last 5, with away production at 3.9 and home production at 2.9. At 3.5, this is close, but the recent trend and lower home split support the under.
His season average is 2.6 assists, while the last 10 sits at 2.2 and the last 20 at 2.5, so production has not been reliably above this number. The variance is moderate, but the recent minutes dip makes the under the safer side.
He averages 2.82 made threes on the season, but only 2.3 over the last 10 and 2.7 over the last 20, so the gap is not as strong as the season number suggests. The opponent’s -0.305 three suppression also works against the over.
Powell averages 1.2 steals on the season and 0.8 over the last 5, which is below the 1.5 line. That makes the under the clear lean, especially with no recent surge in steals.
He averages only 0.2 blocks on the season and 0.4 over the last 5, so getting over 0.5 is not supported by the profile. This is a low-variance under.
His season stocks average is 1.4, while the last 10 is 1.5 and the last 5 is 1.2. That is right on the edge, but the season baseline keeps this slightly under.
He is at 2.0 turnovers over the last 5 and 2.3 over the last 10, above his season-average workload profile. With his recent usage and scoring responsibility, this line is reachable.
Powell’s season points plus rebounds profile is 26.1, but the recent scoring dip brings the combo closer to the line. Since combo props add variance, the under is the more conservative side.
His season points plus assists average is 25.0, but the recent scoring drop and only 2.2 assists over the last 10 make this number less secure. The under is supported by the recent form trend.