AI Model:

Norman Powell▼

MIA · SF

PPG

22.4

RPG

3.7

APG

2.6

L5 PPG

18.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-4.2

22.4

18.2

RPG-0.1

3.7

3.6

APG+0.2

2.6

2.8

SPG-0.4

1.2

0.8

BPG+0.2

0.2

0.4

UNDER 21.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

21.5

ORL

2026-01-28

2026-01-28 vs ORL: 22 pts

CHI

2026-01-29

2026-01-29 vs CHI: 21 pts

BOS

2026-02-06

2026-02-06 vs BOS: 24 pts

WAS

2026-02-08

2026-02-08 vs WAS: 21 pts

ATL

2026-02-20

2026-02-20 vs ATL: 15 pts

MEM

2026-02-21

2026-02-21 vs MEM: 25 pts

MIL

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs MIL: 26 pts

PHI

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs PHI: 3 pts

ORL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs ORL: 20 pts

CHA

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs CHA: 17 pts

Over 21.5

Under 21.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 21.5FANDUEL

62%

REB

UNDER 3.5FANDUEL

67%

AST

UNDER 2.5FANDUEL

60%

3PM

UNDER 2.5FANDUEL

64%

STL

UNDER 1.5

70%

BLK

UNDER 0.5BETMGM

78%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

58%

OVER 2

63%

P+R

UNDER 25.5DRAFTKINGS

61%

P+A

UNDER 24.5DRAFTKINGS

64%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

24.7

17.4

RPG

2.9

3.9

APG

3.1

2.2

vs LAL (H2H)15 games

PPG

16.9

RPG

2.7

APG

2.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Anthony Black	4	16	50%	+2.7%	medium
Mikal Bridges	4	14	100%	+27.7%	medium
Landry Shamet	3	13	70%	+2.7%	medium
Jalen Suggs	5	13	56%

Powell’s scoring is solid, but the data leans more cautious than the market

Norman Powell is averaging 22.4 PPG, but his recent form has cooled to 18.2 PPG over the last 5 and 19.4 over the last 10, with minutes down to 25.8 in the last 5 from 30.1 on the season. At home he has been noticeably stronger, posting 24.7 PPG with 3.6 threes per game, which is a positive in Miami, but his matchup history vs this opponent is only 16.87 PPG across 15 games. The opponent profile also matters here: a 114.99 defensive rating, 100 pace, and -0.305 three suppression point to a tougher scoring environment for a perimeter scorer. With the current line sitting around 21.5, the season-vs-recent blend keeps this close, but the recent dip and tougher opponent context make the under slightly more appealing.

Stat Trends

PPG

18.2(↓ from 22.4)

RPG

3.6(→ from 3.7)

APG

2.8(→ from 2.6)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, and the team context is what stands out most: a 114.99 defensive rating, 100 pace, and -0.305 three suppression all lean against a ceiling game. Powell’s 15-game history vs this opponent is only 16.87 PPG, which is well below his season average.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Norman Powell▼	Points	21.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	20	✓
Norman Powell▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	2	✓
Norman Powell▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	3	✗
Norman Powell▼	3PM	2.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	1	✓
Norman Powell▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	2/2	70%	1	✓
Norman Powell▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	78%HIGH	—	70%	1	✗
Norman Powell▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	—	70%	2	✗
Norman Powell▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	63%MEDIUM	—	40%	1	✗
Norman Powell▼	P+R	25.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	22	✓
Norman Powell▼	P+A	24.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	23	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PTS18.5OVER5%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)14/2070%+18.8% edgePrediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted +0.435▼

PRA23.5OVER0%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)15/2075%+21.5% edgePrediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted +0.491; Scorecard changed +2.0▼

P+R23OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

P+A22OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x11/2055%▼

REB3.5UNDER12%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (8/20)8/2040%▼

3PM2.5UNDER15%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)8/2040%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

R+A6UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 4x6/2030%▼

AST2.5UNDER29%gbt_assistsAvoid (7/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

Norman Powell

Blocks UNDER 0.5HIGH

This is the cleanest angle in the set because Powell averages just 0.2 blocks on the season and 0.4 over the last 5. The line is simply too high relative to his baseline, making the under the strongest bet.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
LeBron James	1	3	1	0%	0%
Rui Hachimura	1	2	0	0%	0%
Jake LaRavia	1	2	0	0%	0%
Austin Reaves	1	1	1	0%	0%
Luke Kennard	1	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 21.562%MEDIUM

He has averaged 18.2 PPG over the last 5 and 19.4 over the last 10, both below the 21.5 line. He is stronger at home at 24.7 PPG, but the opponent context and his 16.87 PPG in 15 games vs this team keep the under playable.

reboundsUNDER 3.567%MEDIUM

Powell averages 3.7 rebounds on the season, but just 3.0 over the last 10 and 3.6 over the last 5, with away production at 3.9 and home production at 2.9. At 3.5, this is close, but the recent trend and lower home split support the under.

assistsUNDER 2.560%MEDIUM

His season average is 2.6 assists, while the last 10 sits at 2.2 and the last 20 at 2.5, so production has not been reliably above this number. The variance is moderate, but the recent minutes dip makes the under the safer side.

threesUNDER 2.564%MEDIUM

He averages 2.82 made threes on the season, but only 2.3 over the last 10 and 2.7 over the last 20, so the gap is not as strong as the season number suggests. The opponent’s -0.305 three suppression also works against the over.

stealsUNDER 1.570%HIGH

Powell averages 1.2 steals on the season and 0.8 over the last 5, which is below the 1.5 line. That makes the under the clear lean, especially with no recent surge in steals.

blocksUNDER 0.578%HIGH

He averages only 0.2 blocks on the season and 0.4 over the last 5, so getting over 0.5 is not supported by the profile. This is a low-variance under.

stocksUNDER 1.558%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.4, while the last 10 is 1.5 and the last 5 is 1.2. That is right on the edge, but the season baseline keeps this slightly under.

turnoversOVER 263%MEDIUM

He is at 2.0 turnovers over the last 5 and 2.3 over the last 10, above his season-average workload profile. With his recent usage and scoring responsibility, this line is reachable.

prUNDER 25.561%MEDIUM

Powell’s season points plus rebounds profile is 26.1, but the recent scoring dip brings the combo closer to the line. Since combo props add variance, the under is the more conservative side.

paUNDER 24.564%MEDIUM

His season points plus assists average is 25.0, but the recent scoring drop and only 2.2 assists over the last 10 make this number less secure. The under is supported by the recent form trend.

timelineUNDER 21.5 PTS