AI Model:

Deandre Ayton▼

LAL · C

PPG

12.7

RPG

8.4

APG

0.9

L5 PPG

13.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+1.1

12.7

13.8

RPG+0.8

8.4

9.2

APG+0.5

0.9

1.4

SPG-0.2

0.6

0.4

BPG+0.1

0.9

1.0

OVER 10.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

10.5

GSW

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs GSW: 4 pts

SAC

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs SAC: 12 pts

NOP

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs NOP: 13 pts

DEN

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs DEN: 0 pts

NYK

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs NYK: 6 pts

MIN

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MIN: 14 pts

CHI

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs CHI: 23 pts

DEN

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs DEN: 9 pts

HOU

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs HOU: 7 pts

HOU

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs HOU: 16 pts

Over 10.5

Under 10.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 10.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

REB

UNDER 8.5DRAFTKINGS

64%

AST

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

77%

BLK

OVER 0.5BETMGM

62%

STL

UNDER 0.5STAKE

61%

3PM

UNDER 0.5

99%

OVER 0.5

60%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

56%

P+R

UNDER 19.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

11.9

9.7

RPG

8.5

6.8

APG

0.9

1.2

vs MIA (H2H)9 games

PPG

17.6

RPG

11.8

APG

1.7

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Mark Williams	4	21	83%	+15.9%	medium
Rudy Gobert	3	20	50%	-17.4%	medium
Maxime Raynaud	3	14	75%	+7.6%	medium
Alperen Sengun	2	14	90%

Ayton’s scoring and boards face a tougher, lower-ceiling setup

Deandre Ayton’s season line is 12.7 points and 8.4 rebounds in 27.7 MPG, but his last 10 have dipped to 10.4 points and 7.8 rebounds, with the overall trend marked down. He has still flashed upside in recent games, including 16 points, 4 rebounds, and 3 blocks vs HOU, but the volume is not consistently there and his last-20 scoring sits at 10.9 PPG. Miami’s defense context is not favorable for a big ceiling, and this is also a Lakers back-to-back, which adds a minutes/efficiency risk for the road side.

Stat Trends

PPG

13.8(→ from 12.7)

RPG

9.2(↑ from 8.4)

APG

1.4(↑ from 0.9)

Key Matchup

There is no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, but Bam Adebayo is the primary note here with 30 minutes, 41 points allowed, and a 0.6 FG% allowed in the data. Miami’s opponent context also shows a 116.74 defensive rating and a 0.314 scoring suppression mark, which points toward a tougher scoring environment.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Deandre Ayton▼	Points	10.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	6	✗
Deandre Ayton▼	Rebounds	8.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	4	✓
Deandre Ayton▼	Assists	1.5	UNDER	77%HIGH	1/2	60%	0	✓
Deandre Ayton▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	62%MEDIUM	—	60%	0	✗
Deandre Ayton▼	Steals	0.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	—	70%	0	✓
Deandre Ayton▼	3PM	0.5	UNDER	99%HIGH	—	100%	0	✓
Deandre Ayton▼	Turnovers	0.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	—	50%	1	✓
Deandre Ayton▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	—	50%	0	✓
Deandre Ayton▼	P+R	19.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	10	✓

ML Scout Analysis

P+R19UNDER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 2x8/1942%▼

PTS11.5UNDER27%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)10/1953%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

REB6.5UNDER15%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x13/1968%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge shifted -0.417▼

PRA19.5UNDER20%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x10/1953%▼

P+A12OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)10/1953%▼

R+A8.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x10/1953%▼

Featured Pick

Deandre Ayton

Assists UNDER 1.5HIGH

This is the cleanest edge in the dataset because Ayton’s season average is 0.9 assists and his last-10 is 1.0, both clearly below the line. His role has very low passing volume, and unlike points or rebounds, there is no strong recent trend pushing him toward the over.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Bam Adebayo	1	7	14	42%	46%
Tyler Herro	1	1	0	0%	0%
Pelle Larsson	1	1	2	50%	50%
Dru Smith	1	1	0	0%	0%
Davion Mitchell	1	1	2	100%	100%

pointsOVER 10.558%MEDIUM

His season mean is 12.69 points and his home/away splits are both above this line at 11.9 and 9.7 respectively, so 10.5 is reachable despite the downtrend. That said, the last-10 mean of 10.4 and the back-to-back context keep this only a modest edge.

reboundsUNDER 8.564%MEDIUM

Ayton’s season rebound mean is 8.36 and his last-10 is 7.8, which is below 8.5. The recent minute trend is also lower at 24.7 MPG versus 27.73 season, making the under slightly more attractive.

assistsUNDER 1.577%HIGH

He averages just 0.9 assists for the season and 1.0 over the last 10, well below 1.5. His role has very limited playmaking volume, so this is the cleanest under on the board.

blocksOVER 0.562%MEDIUM

Ayton’s season block average is 0.9 and his last-10 is 1.0, both comfortably above 0.5. He has also posted multiple-block games recently, including 3 vs HOU and 2 vs NOP.

stealsUNDER 0.561%MEDIUM

His season steals average is 0.6 and last-10 is 0.4, so the median outcome sits near one steal every other game rather than a reliable over. The recent sample points slightly more toward the under.

threesUNDER 0.599%HIGH

He averages 0.0 threes season-long and 0.0 in every recent window provided. This is an extremely strong under based on the data.

turnoversOVER 0.560%MEDIUM

His recent turnover rates are 0.7 to 0.8 and he has exceeded 0.5 in several recent games. Even with lower usage, 0.5 is a low bar.

stocksUNDER 1.556%MEDIUM

Ayton’s season stocks average is 1.54 and recent is 1.4, so this is basically on the edge rather than a strong over. Because combined defensive stats carry variance, the under is slightly safer at a standard 1.5 line.

prUNDER 19.568%MEDIUM

His season points-plus-rebounds average is 21.05, but the last-10 profile drops to 18.2 (10.4 points + 7.8 rebounds). With recent minutes also down, 19.5 looks a bit high.

timelineOVER 10.5 PTS