AI Model:

Pelle Larsson▲

MIA · SF

PPG

10.9

RPG

3.4

APG

3.3

L5 PPG

15.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+4.5

10.9

15.4

RPG+0.2

3.4

3.6

APG-0.3

3.3

3.0

SPG+0.3

0.7

1.0

BPG0.0

0.2

UNDER 12.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

12.5

PHI

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs PHI: 9 pts

HOU

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs HOU: 20 pts

BKN

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs BKN: 3 pts

BKN

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs BKN: 16 pts

CHA

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs CHA: 11 pts

DET

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs DET: 10 pts

WAS

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs WAS: 10 pts

MIL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs MIL: 28 pts

ORL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs ORL: 15 pts

CHA

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs CHA: 14 pts

Over 12.5

Under 12.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 12.5DRAFTKINGS

62%

REB

UNDER 3.5STAKE

58%

AST

UNDER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

73%

3PM

OVER 0.5DRAFTKINGS

64%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

54%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

84%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

61%

OVER 2

57%

P+A

UNDER 16.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

P+R

UNDER 15.5DRAFTKINGS

64%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

15.0

10.1

RPG

4.0

5.0

APG

3.8

2.8

vs LAL (H2H)2 games

PPG

11.0

RPG

4.5

APG

6.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Desmond Bane	4	14	39%	-16.6%	medium
Kon Knueppel	4	10	81%	+12.6%	medium
Mikal Bridges	3	9	80%	+10.1%	medium
Cooper Flagg	2	9	45%

Larsson’s minutes are up, but the price is catching up too

Pelle Larsson’s recent form is clearly trending upward, with 15.4 PPG over his last 5 and 31.6 MPG, well above his season marks of 10.9 PPG and 25.6 MPG. His home splits are stronger than his away numbers, and this game is in Miami, where he averages 15.0 PPG, 4.0 RPG, and 3.8 APG. The market has adjusted with multiple points lines sitting at 10.5 and 12.5, but his lower-season scoring baseline and solid but not elite variance make the under on the bigger numbers more appealing. His assist prop is especially interesting on the downside because his season mean is 3.28 and the value data shows clear under edges at 4.5.

Stat Trends

PPG

15.4(↑ from 10.9)

RPG

3.6(→ from 3.4)

APG

3.0(→ from 3.3)

3PM

1.2(↑ from 0.9)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data is available in the provided key defenders field. The opponent context is mixed: the listed opponent defense has a 114.99 defensive rating and a -0.305 three suppression, which is not a strong reason to force overs on perimeter scoring.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Pelle Larsson▼	Points	12.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	11	✓
Pelle Larsson▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	2	✓
Pelle Larsson▼	Assists	4.5	UNDER	73%HIGH	2/2	70%	5	✗
Pelle Larsson▼	3PM	0.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	—	70%	0	✗
Pelle Larsson▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	0	✗
Pelle Larsson▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	84%HIGH	—	70%	0	✓
Pelle Larsson▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	—	70%	0	✓
Pelle Larsson▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	20%	4	✓
Pelle Larsson▼	P+A	16.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	16	✓
Pelle Larsson▼	P+R	15.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	13	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PRA17.5OVER36%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 6x15/2075%+24.0% edgeConfidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

REB3.5OVER5%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (11/20)11/2055%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted +0.151▼

P+R18UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 4x8/2040%▼

PTS10.5UNDER9%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 4x13/2065%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge shifted -0.340▼

P+A17.5UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 4x9/2045%▼

AST2.5OVER29%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 5x16/2080%+16.8% edgeConfidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

R+A7.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 5x11/2055%▼

Featured Pick

Pelle Larsson

Assists UNDER 4.5HIGH

This is the cleanest misprice in the data because his season mean is 3.28 APG, his last 10 is 3.4 APG, and the value props show consistent under edges at 4.5. Even with his recent minutes bump, he has not produced like a 5+ assist player, making the under the strongest overall play.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Luka Dončić	2	7	9	38%	38%
Marcus Smart	2	4	3	20%	30%
Jake LaRavia	2	3	0	0%	0%
Austin Reaves	2	3	3	33%	50%
LeBron James	1	2	2	33%	33%

pointsUNDER 12.562%MEDIUM

His season mean is 10.93 PPG, which is below 12.5, and his last 5 surge to 15.4 PPG is a step above his baseline. With over-bias caution and a season-first approach, the under is the safer side on this number.

reboundsUNDER 3.558%MEDIUM

He averages 3.39 RPG on the season and 3.3 over the last 10, so 3.5 is right at his typical range. This is a low-variance lean, but the season mean still slightly favors the under.

assistsUNDER 4.573%HIGH

His season mean is 3.28 APG and his last 10 is 3.4 APG, both well below 4.5. The value data also shows strong under edges at 4.5, including a 17.0% edge and 36.96 EV per 100 at William Hill.

threesOVER 0.564%MEDIUM

He averages 0.93 made threes per game on the season and 1.1 over the last 10, so 0.5 is a low bar. The recent trend and home split support at least one make.

stealsOVER 0.554%MEDIUM

He averages 0.7 steals per game on the season and 1.0 over the last 20, which supports a modest over lean. Confidence stays moderate because steals are volatile.

blocksUNDER 0.584%HIGH

He averages just 0.2 blocks per game on the season and 0.3 over the last 10. That is far below a 0.5 line, so the under is the clear side.

stocksUNDER 1.561%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 0.95 and last 20 is 1.2, both below 1.5. Even with recent active hands, the combined number still sits above his typical output.

turnoversOVER 257%MEDIUM

He has 1.6 turnovers over his last 5 and 1.9 over his last 20, with recent usage rising to 30+ minutes. This is close enough to support a slight over lean if the market posts 2.0.

paUNDER 16.566%MEDIUM

His season points plus assists baseline is 14.21, and his recent form does not fully justify a 16.5 line. Combo props carry extra variance, so the under is the cleaner play.

prUNDER 15.564%MEDIUM

His season points and rebounds average is 14.32, below 15.5, and rebounds have not spiked enough to close that gap. Given the combo-prop caution, the under is preferred.

timelineUNDER 12.5 PTS