AI Model:

LeBron James▲

LAL · SF

PPG

21.3

RPG

5.7

APG

6.8

L5 PPG

19.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-1.5

21.3

19.8

RPG-0.1

5.7

5.6

APG-1.4

6.8

5.4

SPG+0.9

1.1

2.0

BPG0.0

0.6

OVER 18.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

18.5

ORL

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs ORL: 21 pts

PHX

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs PHX: 15 pts

GSW

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs GSW: 22 pts

SAC

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs SAC: 24 pts

NOP

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs NOP: 21 pts

DEN

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs DEN: 16 pts

CHI

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs CHI: 18 pts

DEN

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs DEN: 17 pts

HOU

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs HOU: 18 pts

HOU

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs HOU: 30 pts

Over 18.5

Under 18.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 18.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

REB

UNDER 10.5FANDUEL

74%

AST

UNDER 9.5FANDUEL

78%

3PM

OVER 0.5DRAFTKINGS

67%

STL

UNDER 1.5STAKE

63%

BLK

OVER 0.5STAKE

55%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

62%

OVER 3.5

66%

PRA

OVER 26.5DRAFTKINGS

54%

P+A

OVER 22.5DRAFTKINGS

57%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

20.1

19.9

RPG

5.5

4.7

APG

7.8

5.9

vs MIA (H2H)7 games

PPG

24.6

RPG

7.0

APG

6.9

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
John Collins	4	14	100%	+28.7%	medium
Amen Thompson	3	12	89%	+37.6%	medium
Royce O'Neale	4	11	75%	-1.3%	medium
P.J. Washington	3	10	43%

LeBron’s matchup is playable, but recent scoring is below his season level

LeBron is averaging 21.3 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 6.8 assists on the season, but his last-5 scoring has dipped to 19.8 while his playmaking has also softened to 5.4 assists. The matchup data is mixed: he has produced 24.57 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 6.86 assists in 7 games vs this opponent, but the opponent’s defense shows a 116.74 rating, pace of 100, and 0.314 scoring suppression. With the Lakers on a back-to-back, a minutes cap or fourth-quarter slowdown is a real concern, which makes the higher-end overs less attractive.

Stat Trends

PPG

19.8(↓ from 21.3)

RPG

5.6(→ from 5.7)

APG

5.4(↓ from 6.8)

Stocks

2.6(↑ from 1.8)

Key Matchup

He has 7 games of head-to-head data with averages of 24.57 points, 7 rebounds, and 6.86 assists, which is solid production. The opponent metrics show a 116.74 defensive rating, pace of 100, and 0.314 scoring suppression, so the environment is not especially friendly for ceiling outcomes.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
LeBron James▼	Points	18.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	19	✓
LeBron James▼	Rebounds	10.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	1/2	100%	15	✗
LeBron James▼	Assists	9.5	UNDER	78%HIGH	2/2	100%	10	✗
LeBron James▼	3PM	0.5	OVER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	0	✗
LeBron James▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	0	✓
LeBron James▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	60%	0	✗
LeBron James▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	62%MEDIUM	—	80%	0	✗
LeBron James▼	Turnovers	3.5	OVER	66%MEDIUM	—	50%	3	✗
LeBron James▼	PRA	26.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	1/2	90%	44	✓
LeBron James▼	P+A	22.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	80%	29	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PTS23.5UNDER43%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)3/2015%+34.5% edgeConfidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

REB6.5UNDER2%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (12/20)8/2040%+10.7% edge▼

3PM1.5UNDER5%gbt_three_pmDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 9x4/2020%+22.6% edgeConfidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

P+R25.5UNDER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)8/2040%▼

PRA40.5UNDER45%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)4/2020%+22.6% edgeConfidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

AST9.5UNDER17%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (10/20)4/2020%+20.2% edgeConfidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

P+A26UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)8/2040%▼

STL1.5UNDER45%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 7x7/2035%▼

R+A13.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

LeBron James

Rebounds UNDER 10.5HIGH

LeBron’s season rebound average is 5.7, his last-10 is 5.5, and his away average is 4.7, all far below the 10.5 line. This is one of the clearest mismatches between the posted number and his actual rebounding profile.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Kel'el Ware	1	3	4	100%	100%
Pelle Larsson	1	3	0	0%	0%
Simone Fontecchio	1	3	0	0%	0%
Bam Adebayo	1	2	0	0%	0%
Davion Mitchell	1	1	0	0%	0%

pointsOVER 18.560%MEDIUM

His season mean is 21.3 points and his last-10 is 20.2, both above this line. The back-to-back adds risk, but this is still a low enough number relative to his baseline to lean over.

reboundsUNDER 10.574%HIGH

LeBron is at 5.7 rebounds per game on the season and 5.5 over the last 10, far below 10.5. Even his opponent history at 7.0 rebounds per game does not get close enough to justify the over.

assistsUNDER 9.578%HIGH

His season average is 6.8 assists and his last-5 is 5.4, while the line is 9.5. The Lakers' back-to-back and his recent dip in playmaking make the under the safer side.

threesOVER 0.567%MEDIUM

He averages 1.4 threes per game on the season and 1.4 over the last 10, so 0.5 is a very low bar. The recent logs still show made threes in multiple games, keeping the over viable.

stealsUNDER 1.563%MEDIUM

His season steals average is 1.1, but 1.5 is above his baseline and more volatile. The recent spike to 2.0 over the last 5 is not enough to fully trust the over at this higher threshold.

blocksOVER 0.555%MEDIUM

He averages 0.6 blocks per game on the season and 0.8 over the last 10, which supports clearing 0.5. Confidence stays modest because blocks are inherently volatile.

stocksOVER 1.562%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.77 and his last-10 is 2.1, both above 1.5. The recent defensive activity trend is positive, though the line still carries some volatility.

turnoversOVER 3.566%MEDIUM

He has averaged 3.1 turnovers over the last 10 and 3.4 over the last 20, with multiple recent games at 4 or 5 turnovers. That makes 3.5 a reasonable over target despite the back-to-back.

praOVER 26.554%MEDIUM

His season-based production profile projects well above 26.5 when combining 21.3 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 6.8 assists. The combo nature keeps confidence moderate because his recent scoring and assists have both cooled.

paOVER 22.557%MEDIUM

His season points-plus-assists baseline is 28.1, and even his recent form remains strong enough to support this number. The line is still below his typical output, but the back-to-back lowers the ceiling a bit.

timelineOVER 18.5 PTS