Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moussa Diabaté | 4 | 18 | 64% | +10.7% | medium |
| Ryan Kalkbrenner | 4 | 17 | 80% | +27.1% | medium |
| Mitchell Robinson | 3 | 16 | 50% | -2.9% | medium |
| Rudy Gobert | 2 | 15 | 78% |
Kel'el Ware’s season line of 11.3 points and 9.4 rebounds is backed by solid recent run-time, with his last 10 showing 26.1 mpg, 10.7 PPG, and 9.4 RPG. His scoring has been steady rather than explosive, and his last 5 points at 9.6 sit below his season average, while rebounds remain right in line. The Lakers are on a back-to-back, which can help his interior production, but Miami’s home splits are only modestly better on the glass and his historical numbers versus this opponent are lower at 7.5 PPG and 7.5 RPG in 15 mpg. With the market shading his rebounds higher on some books and his recent block volume strong, the safest angle leans on defensive production rather than points upside.
No specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, and the opponent profile shows a 114.99 defensive rating with a -0.086 scoring suppression and -0.305 three suppression. The Lakers are on a back-to-back, which can help Ware’s interior opportunities, but his prior two games vs this opponent were only 7.5 PPG and 7.5 RPG in 15 mpg.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kel'el Ware▼ | Points | 10.5 | OVER | 52%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 60% | 14 | ✓ |
Kel'el Ware▼ | Rebounds | 11.5 | UNDER | 68%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 70% | 9 | ✓ |
Kel'el Ware▼ | Assists | 0.5 | OVER | 61%MEDIUM | — | 60% | 1 | ✓ |
Kel'el Ware▼ | 3PM | 0.5 | OVER | 56%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 80% | 0 | ✗ |
Kel'el Ware▼ | Steals | 0.5 | OVER | 63%MEDIUM | — | 50% | 0 | ✗ |
Kel'el Ware▼ | Blocks | 0.5 | OVER | 72%HIGH | 1/2 | 70% | 0 | ✗ |
Kel'el Ware▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | OVER | 60%MEDIUM | — | 50% | 0 | ✗ |
Kel'el Ware▼ | Turnovers | 2 | UNDER | 74%HIGH | — | 90% | 0 | ✓ |
Kel'el Ware▼ | P+R | 20.5 | UNDER | 66%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 50% | 23 | ✗ |
Ware’s blocks profile is the strongest part of the card: 1.1 per game on the season, 1.8 over the last 10, and 2.0 over the last 5. That recent spike gives him the best combination of volume and ceiling relative to the posted line.
| low |
| Goga Bitadze | 3 | 13 | 71% | +18.5% | medium |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxson Hayes | 2 | 5 | 6 | 75% | 75% |
| Deandre Ayton | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Rui Hachimura | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Austin Reaves | 2 | 1 | 3 | 50% | 75% |
| Jake LaRavia | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
His season mean is 11.3 points and his last 10 is 10.7, both above this line, but the last 5 dipped to 9.6. With modest variance and a favorable minutes trend, this is playable but not strong.
His season average is 9.4 rebounds and last 10 is also 9.4, which is well below 11.5. The recent sample is not showing a sustained jump, so the higher book number looks inflated.
He averages 0.6 assists on the season and 0.6 over the last 5 and last 10. This is a low-variance category, but the edge is small.
He averages 1.11 threes per game on the season and 0.8 over the last 5, so the volume supports at least one made three. The recent dip is worth noting, but the baseline remains above the line.
His season steals average is 0.9, and he has reached 1.4 over the last 10. That keeps him above a half-steal expectation despite some volatility.
He averages 1.1 blocks on the season and 2.0 over the last 5, with 1.8 over the last 10. Given the strong recent shot-blocking run, this is one of the better angles.
His season stocks average is 1.98 and recent form is 3.2 over the last 10. The combined steals-plus-blocks profile clears this number, though it carries more variance than blocks alone.
He is only at 0.7 turnovers per game on the season and 0.9 over the last 10. This line would be far above his normal range.
His season points-plus-rebounds production is 20.7 using the provided means, but the market line sits at 20.5 and his recent scoring has softened. With rebounds priced high in another market and points not surging, the under is the cleaner side.