Kel'el Ware—

MIA · C

PPG

11.3

RPG

9.4

APG

0.6

L5 PPG

9.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-1.7

11.3

9.6

RPG-1.2

9.4

8.2

APG0.0

0.6

SPG-0.1

0.9

0.8

BPG+0.9

1.1

2.0

OVER 10.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

10.5

MIL

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs MIL: 14 pts

PHI

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs PHI: 5 pts

HOU

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs HOU: 13 pts

BKN

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs BKN: 11 pts

BKN

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs BKN: 16 pts

CHA

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs CHA: 10 pts

DET

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs DET: 12 pts

MIL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs MIL: 6 pts

ORL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs ORL: 13 pts

CHA

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs CHA: 7 pts

Over 10.5

Under 10.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 10.5DRAFTKINGS

52%

REB

UNDER 11.5WILLIAMHILL_US

68%

AST

OVER 0.5

61%

3PM

OVER 0.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

STL

OVER 0.5

63%

BLK

OVER 0.5DRAFTKINGS

72%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

60%

UNDER 2

74%

P+R

UNDER 20.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

10.7

11.0

RPG

9.5

8.1

APG

0.6

vs LAL (H2H)2 games

PPG

7.5

RPG

7.5

APG

1.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Moussa Diabaté	4	18	64%	+10.7%	medium
Ryan Kalkbrenner	4	17	80%	+27.1%	medium
Mitchell Robinson	3	16	50%	-2.9%	medium
Rudy Gobert	2	15	78%

Ware’s blocks and rebounds keep him live, but scoring is priced tight

Kel'el Ware’s season line of 11.3 points and 9.4 rebounds is backed by solid recent run-time, with his last 10 showing 26.1 mpg, 10.7 PPG, and 9.4 RPG. His scoring has been steady rather than explosive, and his last 5 points at 9.6 sit below his season average, while rebounds remain right in line. The Lakers are on a back-to-back, which can help his interior production, but Miami’s home splits are only modestly better on the glass and his historical numbers versus this opponent are lower at 7.5 PPG and 7.5 RPG in 15 mpg. With the market shading his rebounds higher on some books and his recent block volume strong, the safest angle leans on defensive production rather than points upside.

Stat Trends

PPG

9.6(↓ from 11.3)

RPG

8.2(↓ from 9.4)

BPG

2.0(↑ from 1.1)

SPG

0.8(→ from 0.9)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, and the opponent profile shows a 114.99 defensive rating with a -0.086 scoring suppression and -0.305 three suppression. The Lakers are on a back-to-back, which can help Ware’s interior opportunities, but his prior two games vs this opponent were only 7.5 PPG and 7.5 RPG in 15 mpg.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Kel'el Ware▼	Points	10.5	OVER	52%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	14	✓
Kel'el Ware▼	Rebounds	11.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	9	✓
Kel'el Ware▼	Assists	0.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	—	60%	1	✓
Kel'el Ware▼	3PM	0.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	80%	0	✗
Kel'el Ware▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	—	50%	0	✗
Kel'el Ware▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	72%HIGH	1/2	70%	0	✗
Kel'el Ware▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	—	50%	0	✗
Kel'el Ware▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	74%HIGH	—	90%	0	✓
Kel'el Ware▼	P+R	20.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	23	✗

ML Scout Analysis

P+R20OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)10/1953%▼

P+A12UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)8/1942%▼

R+A10UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)8/1942%▼

Featured Pick

Kel'el Ware

Blocks OVER 0.5HIGH

Ware’s blocks profile is the strongest part of the card: 1.1 per game on the season, 1.8 over the last 10, and 2.0 over the last 5. That recent spike gives him the best combination of volume and ceiling relative to the posted line.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jaxson Hayes	2	5	6	75%	75%
Deandre Ayton	1	2	0	0%	0%
Rui Hachimura	2	1	0	0%	0%
Austin Reaves	2	1	3	50%	75%
Jake LaRavia	2	1	0	0%	0%

pointsOVER 10.552%MEDIUM

His season mean is 11.3 points and his last 10 is 10.7, both above this line, but the last 5 dipped to 9.6. With modest variance and a favorable minutes trend, this is playable but not strong.

reboundsUNDER 11.568%MEDIUM

His season average is 9.4 rebounds and last 10 is also 9.4, which is well below 11.5. The recent sample is not showing a sustained jump, so the higher book number looks inflated.

assistsOVER 0.561%MEDIUM

He averages 0.6 assists on the season and 0.6 over the last 5 and last 10. This is a low-variance category, but the edge is small.

threesOVER 0.556%MEDIUM

He averages 1.11 threes per game on the season and 0.8 over the last 5, so the volume supports at least one made three. The recent dip is worth noting, but the baseline remains above the line.

stealsOVER 0.563%MEDIUM

His season steals average is 0.9, and he has reached 1.4 over the last 10. That keeps him above a half-steal expectation despite some volatility.

blocksOVER 0.572%HIGH

He averages 1.1 blocks on the season and 2.0 over the last 5, with 1.8 over the last 10. Given the strong recent shot-blocking run, this is one of the better angles.

stocksOVER 1.560%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.98 and recent form is 3.2 over the last 10. The combined steals-plus-blocks profile clears this number, though it carries more variance than blocks alone.

turnoversUNDER 274%HIGH

He is only at 0.7 turnovers per game on the season and 0.9 over the last 10. This line would be far above his normal range.

prUNDER 20.566%MEDIUM

His season points-plus-rebounds production is 20.7 using the provided means, but the market line sits at 20.5 and his recent scoring has softened. With rebounds priced high in another market and points not surging, the under is the cleaner side.

timelineOVER 10.5 PTS