AI Model:

Davion Mitchell—

MIA · PG

PPG

8.9

RPG

2.7

APG

6.6

L5 PPG

10.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+1.3

8.9

10.2

RPG+1.1

2.7

3.8

APG-2.0

6.6

4.6

SPG-0.4

1.0

0.6

BPG-0.2

0.2

0.0

OVER 8.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

8.5

PHI

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs PHI: 3 pts

HOU

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs HOU: 10 pts

BKN

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs BKN: 8 pts

BKN

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs BKN: 2 pts

CHA

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs CHA: 13 pts

DET

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs DET: 8 pts

WAS

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs WAS: 12 pts

MIL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs MIL: 13 pts

ORL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs ORL: 14 pts

CHA

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs CHA: 4 pts

Over 8.5

Under 8.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 8.5STAKE

58%

REB

OVER 2.5STAKE

56%

AST

UNDER 6.5STAKE

64%

3PM

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

61%

STL

UNDER 1.5STAKE

67%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

66%

UNDER 2

60%

P+A

UNDER 18.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

P+R

UNDER 10.5STAKE

65%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

9.6

7.5

RPG

2.9

3.2

APG

5.2

5.3

vs LAL (H2H)14 games

PPG

6.9

RPG

1.6

APG

2.4

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
James Harden	4	21	75%	+11.7%	medium
Desmond Bane	4	20	55%	+1.7%	medium
Cade Cunningham	3	17	33%	-20.5%	medium
Tyrese Maxey	3	16	47%

Mitchell’s floor is steady, but the market is pricing in more than his recent form supports

Davion Mitchell has been a stable low-usage starter, but his scoring and playmaking numbers sit well below the bigger combo lines. Over his last 10, he’s at 8.7 PPG, 3.1 RPG, and 4.5 APG, which is close to or below his season baseline of 8.9/2.7/6.6. Miami is at home, and his home splits are slightly better for points (9.6) and assists (5.2), but the opponent profile points to a slower-scoring environment with 100 pace and -0.086 scoring suppression. His recent production suggests the safest angles lean under on inflated combo expectations rather than chasing an over.

Stat Trends

PPG

10.2(↑ from 8.9)

APG

4.6(↓ from 6.6)

RPG

3.8(↑ from 2.7)

Stocks

0.6(↓ from 1.2)

Key Matchup

The opponent data shows a 114.99 defensive rating, 100 pace, -0.086 scoring suppression, and -0.305 three suppression, which all point toward a tougher scoring environment. He also has 14 games of head-to-head history with only 6.857 PPG, 1.571 RPG, and 2.357 APG, reinforcing caution on overs.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Davion Mitchell▼	Points	8.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	16	✓
Davion Mitchell▼	Rebounds	2.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	3	✓
Davion Mitchell▼	Assists	6.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	90%	6	✓
Davion Mitchell▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	2	✗
Davion Mitchell▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	—	90%	1	✓
Davion Mitchell▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	—	90%	2	✗
Davion Mitchell▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	—	80%	1	✓
Davion Mitchell▼	P+A	18.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	90%	22	✗
Davion Mitchell▼	P+R	10.5	UNDER	65%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	19	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS8.5OVER2%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 4x12/2060%+11.0% edge▼

REB2.5UNDER3%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (11/20)11/2055%▼

AST5.5UNDER29%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x7/2035%+15.5% edge▼

PRA16.5OVER14%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 4x12/2060%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted +0.130▼

P+R13OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x10/2050%▼

3PM1.5UNDER28%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x11/2055%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

P+A15OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x10/2050%▼

R+A8.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 4x10/2050%▼

Featured Pick

Davion Mitchell

Assists UNDER 6.5HIGH

This is the cleanest fade because his season 6.6 APG is being supported by a much weaker recent baseline of 4.5 over the last 10 and 4.6 over the last 5. The market is asking for near-season output despite reduced recent minutes at 25.2, making the under the most reliable side.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Austin Reaves	2	10	2	14%	14%
Luka Dončić	2	6	18	73%	82%
Jake LaRavia	2	2	0	0%	0%
Marcus Smart	2	2	3	33%	50%
Rui Hachimura	2	2	2	100%	100%

pointsOVER 8.558%MEDIUM

His season mean is 8.9 and home mean is 9.41, both above 8.5. Still, the last 10 is 8.7 and the opponent context is slower, so this is only a modest lean over.

reboundsOVER 2.556%MEDIUM

He averages 2.7 rebounds on the season, 2.76 at home, and 3.1 over the last 10. The line is low enough that his recent board rate supports a slight over lean.

assistsUNDER 6.564%MEDIUM

His season average is 6.6, but the last 10 is only 4.5 and the last 5 is 4.6, showing clear recent softness. With only 28.2 season minutes and 25.2 recent minutes, the under is safer than paying for a near-season mark.

threesUNDER 1.561%MEDIUM

He averages 1.22 threes on the season and 1.3 over the last 10, which is still below 1.5. The matchup data also shows -0.305 three suppression, which supports the under.

stealsUNDER 1.567%MEDIUM

He averages exactly 1.0 steal per game on the season, but only 0.6 over the last 5 and 0.6 over the last 10. The 1.5 line requires an outlier defensive night, so the under is the better side.

stocksUNDER 1.566%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.17 and his recent mean is 0.6, so 1.5 is above both baseline and recent form. With blocks at just 0.2 per game and steals trending down, this is a strong under lean.

turnoversUNDER 260%MEDIUM

He’s at 1.0 turnover over the last 5 and 1.1 over the last 20, with season-to-date turnover volume not elevated. That profile makes 2.0 a reasonable under if this line is available.

paUNDER 18.563%MEDIUM

His season points plus assists total is 15.5 using the provided season means, and his recent points and assists have both come in below season marks. A 18.5 PA line sits meaningfully above that baseline, so the under is preferred.

prUNDER 10.565%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds mean is 11.6, but the recent assist-heavy role has not translated into extra scoring volume, and his points are only 8.7 over the last 10. With scoring environment suppression in play, the under is the cleaner angle.

timelineOVER 8.5 PTS