AI Model:

Tyler Herro▼

MIA · SG

PPG

21.4

RPG

4.8

APG

3.8

L5 PPG

22.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+1.2

21.4

22.6

RPG+1.8

4.8

6.6

APG+1.6

3.8

5.4

SPG-0.2

0.8

0.6

BPG-0.2

0.4

0.2

OVER 19.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

19.5

MEM

2026-02-21

2026-02-21 vs MEM: 14 pts

MIL

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs MIL: 14 pts

PHI

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs PHI: 25 pts

HOU

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs HOU: 18 pts

BKN

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs BKN: 22 pts

BKN

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs BKN: 25 pts

CHA

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs CHA: 33 pts

DET

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs DET: 25 pts

ORL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs ORL: 10 pts

CHA

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs CHA: 20 pts

Over 19.5

Under 19.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 19.5STAKE

64%

REB

UNDER 5.5STAKE

71%

AST

OVER 3.5STAKE

59%

3PM

OVER 2.5SPORTSBOOK_LINES

61%

STL

UNDER 1.5STAKE

74%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

68%

P+A

UNDER 20.5SPORTSBOOK_LINES

63%

P+R

OVER 23.5SPORTSBOOK_LINES

57%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

20.5

21.3

RPG

3.7

5.6

APG

3.4

4.3

vs LAL (H2H)9 games

PPG

20.2

RPG

4.2

APG

3.9

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Max Christie	2	11	50%	-8.1%	low
Sam Hauser	2	9	67%	+18.6%	low
Sam Merrill	2	9	63%	+1.9%	low
Duncan Robinson	2	9	42%

Herro’s scoring is playable, but the board leans to unders on the bigger combo lines

Tyler Herro is averaging 21.4 PPG, 4.8 RPG, and 3.8 APG on the season, with his last 5 pushing slightly higher at 22.6 PPG, 6.6 RPG, and 5.4 APG. Even so, his overall trend is marked down, and his last 10 scoring average has dipped to 20.6 PPG with 2.7 turnovers. Against this opponent, his career sample is 20.2 PPG, 4.2 RPG, and 3.9 APG across 9 games, while the opponent’s defense shows a 114.99 rating, 100 pace, and -0.305 three suppression. The Lakers are on a back-to-back, but there is no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders.

Stat Trends

PPG

22.6(→ from 21.4)

RPG

6.6(↑ from 4.8)

APG

5.4(↑ from 3.8)

3PM

3.4(↑ from 2.5)

Key Matchup

The opponent allows a 114.99 defensive rating at a 100 pace, with -0.086 scoring suppression and -0.305 three suppression. There is no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, so the main edge comes from the team-level defensive context and Herro’s own splits.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Tyler Herro▼	Points	19.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	21	✓
Tyler Herro▼	Rebounds	5.5	UNDER	71%HIGH	1/2	60%	8	✗
Tyler Herro▼	Assists	3.5	OVER	59%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	5	✓
Tyler Herro▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	4	✓
Tyler Herro▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	—	100%	0	✓
Tyler Herro▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	—	70%	0	✓
Tyler Herro▼	P+A	20.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	26	✗
Tyler Herro▼	P+R	23.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	29	✓

ML Scout Analysis

P+R25.5OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%▼

AST3.5OVER6%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (10/20)13/2065%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted +0.111; Scorecard changed +2.0▼

PRA29.5UNDER24%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

PTS21.5UNDER13%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (9/20)10/2050%▼

REB4.5UNDER22%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 5x8/2040%+7.0% edge▼

3PM2.5UNDER29%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 3x10/2050%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM; Value edge changed +0.031▼

P+A26UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (8/20)8/2040%▼

R+A9UNDER0%gbt_raAvoid (7/20)8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

Tyler Herro

Rebounds UNDER 5.5HIGH

This is the cleanest angle on the board because Herro’s season average is 4.8 RPG, his last 10 is 4.9, and he averages just 4.222 RPG in 9 games against this opponent. The line is above every key baseline except his last 5 spike, which looks less sustainable than the larger sample.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Marcus Smart	1	5	7	25%	38%
Austin Reaves	1	2	4	50%	50%
Luka Dončić	1	1	3	33%	50%
LeBron James	1	1	6	60%	60%
Jake LaRavia	1	1	2	100%	100%

pointsOVER 19.564%MEDIUM

His season mean is 21.4 PPG and he’s at 20.6 over the last 10, which is still above this line. Recent form supports it, though the 22.6 last-5 and 6.48 recent std suggest some volatility.

reboundsUNDER 5.571%HIGH

He averages 4.8 RPG on the season and 4.9 over the last 10, both below 5.5. The matchup data also shows 4.222 RPG vs this opponent across 9 games, which supports the under.

assistsOVER 3.559%MEDIUM

Herro’s season assist average is 3.8 and his last 10 is 5.1, so the recent distribution is comfortably above the line. The season std of 2.19 is high, so this is playable but not high-confidence.

threesOVER 2.561%MEDIUM

He averages 2.45 made threes on the season and 2.8 over the last 10, with 3.4 in the last 5. His recent volume is strong enough to justify the over, though the opponent’s -0.305 three suppression keeps confidence moderate.

stealsUNDER 1.574%HIGH

He averages just 0.8 steals per game on the season and 0.5 over the last 10, well below 1.5. The season std is 0.97, but the baseline is still far too low for the over.

blocksUNDER 0.568%MEDIUM

Herro averages 0.4 blocks on the season and 0.3 over the last 10, so the under is the cleaner side. His block production is too limited to trust an over at this number.

paUNDER 20.563%MEDIUM

Season points plus assists is 25.2, but the line is elevated and combo props carry extra variance. Given the caution on combo markets and his recent assist uptick, this stays only a moderate under lean.

prOVER 23.557%MEDIUM

Herro’s season points plus rebounds is 26.2 and he’s at 27.5 over the last 5 when combining the provided averages. That supports the over, but the high variance in rebounds makes this a lower-confidence combo play.

timelineOVER 19.5 PTS