AI Model:

Bam Adebayo▼

MIA · C

PPG

19.8

RPG

9.7

APG

2.9

L5 PPG

34.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+14.6

19.8

34.4

RPG-0.7

9.7

9.0

APG+0.3

2.9

3.2

SPG+0.7

1.1

1.8

BPG+0.5

0.7

1.2

UNDER 30.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

30.5

MIL

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs MIL: 18 pts

PHI

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs PHI: 29 pts

HOU

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs HOU: 24 pts

BKN

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs BKN: 23 pts

BKN

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs BKN: 21 pts

CHA

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs CHA: 24 pts

DET

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs DET: 24 pts

WAS

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs WAS: 83 pts

MIL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs MIL: 21 pts

ORL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs ORL: 20 pts

Over 30.5

Under 30.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 30.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

REB

OVER 8.5DRAFTKINGS

78%

AST

UNDER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

3PM

UNDER 3.5FANDUEL

74%

STL

UNDER 1.5STAKE

58%

BLK

OVER 0.5STAKE

56%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

63%

P+R

UNDER 36.5DRAFTKINGS

72%

R+A

UNDER 13.5STAKE

64%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

25.8

21.6

RPG

9.2

10.5

APG

2.8

3.0

vs LAL (H2H)11 games

PPG

18.4

RPG

10.0

APG

4.9

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Wendell Carter Jr.	5	35	71%	+19.5%	medium
Neemias Queta	4	17	67%	+23.0%	medium
Karl-Anthony Towns	2	16	42%	-10.4%	low
Paolo Banchero	5	16	50%

Bam’s scoring spike looks due for pullback, but rebounds remain the cleanest angle

Bam Adebayo is carrying huge recent scoring form at 34.4 PPG over his last 5, but that is well above his 19.8 season average and his 28.7 last 10, so regression risk is real. Rebounds are much steadier: he’s at 9.7 per game this season, 9.5 over the last 10, and 9.0 over the last 5, with 9.2 at home. The matchup data is mixed, and no specific defender matchup data is available beyond the listed key defenders, while the Lakers are on a back-to-back and Miami is at home with two days rest. That makes Bam’s floor strong overall, but the best betting value is on his rebound chances rather than chasing the inflated points run.

Stat Trends

PPG

34.4(↓ from 19.8)

RPG

9.0(→ from 9.7)

APG

3.2(→ from 2.9)

Stocks

3.0(↑ from 1.8)

Key Matchup

The data shows no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, so there is no reliable one-on-one defensive read to lean on. Miami’s home setting and the Lakers’ back-to-back could help Bam’s energy and rebounding chances, but the opponent profile also shows a 114.99 defensive rating and -0.086 scoring suppression.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Bam Adebayo▼	Points	30.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	90%	28	✓
Bam Adebayo▼	Rebounds	8.5	OVER	78%HIGH	1/2	70%	10	✓
Bam Adebayo▼	Assists	3.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	2	✓
Bam Adebayo▼	3PM	3.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	2/2	70%	3	✓
Bam Adebayo▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	1	✓
Bam Adebayo▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	—	70%	0	✗
Bam Adebayo▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	—	70%	1	✗
Bam Adebayo▼	P+R	36.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	2/2	80%	38	✗
Bam Adebayo▼	R+A	13.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	12	✓

ML Scout Analysis

REB11.5UNDER34%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x6/2030%+12.4% edge▼

P+R35UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)7/2035%▼

PTS21.5UNDER8%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (8/20)10/2050%▼

3PM1.5UNDER25%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 2x11/2055%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

P+A28UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (8/20)7/2035%▼

AST3.5UNDER28%gbt_assistsAvoid (7/20)9/2045%▼

PRA36.5UNDER22%gbt_praAvoid (7/20)8/2040%+5.1% edgeConfidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

R+A14UNDER0%gbt_raAvoid (7/20)9/2045%▼

STL1.5UNDER39%gbt_stealsAvoid (6/20)6/2030%+5.5% edge▼

Featured Pick

Bam Adebayo

Rebounds OVER 8.5HIGH

This is the cleanest fit with his season mean of 9.7, last 10 mean of 9.5, and home mean of 9.2, all above the line. The rebound market also has the strongest value signals in the data, while his points number is inflated by a recent scoring spike that is likely to cool.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jaxson Hayes	2	9	2	33%	33%
Deandre Ayton	1	6	2	50%	50%
Luka Dončić	2	4	27	64%	89%
Rui Hachimura	2	4	3	100%	150%
Jake LaRavia	2	2	14	86%	100%

pointsUNDER 30.566%MEDIUM

His season mean is 19.8 and even his last 10 is 28.7, which sits below this 30.5 number. The last 5 surge to 34.4 is a clear outlier relative to season baseline, so this looks overpriced despite the hot streak.

reboundsOVER 8.578%HIGH

Bam averages 9.7 rebounds on the season, 9.5 over the last 10, and 9.2 at home, all above 8.5. The value_props also show strong positive edge on rebound overs at similar numbers, making this his strongest prop profile.

assistsUNDER 3.560%MEDIUM

His season assist average is 2.9 and last 10 is 2.8, both below 3.5. Assist variance is moderate, but the baseline still favors a lower-output projection.

threesUNDER 3.574%HIGH

He averages only 1.73 threes per game this season and 1.9 over the last 20, far below 3.5. The under is supported by the gap between his normal volume and this elevated line.

stealsUNDER 1.558%MEDIUM

He averages 1.1 steals on the season, which is solid but still below 1.5. His recent steal numbers are hot, but this line asks for a ceiling outcome.

blocksOVER 0.556%MEDIUM

Bam’s season block average is 0.7 and his last 5 is 1.2, both comfortably above 0.5. This is a low bar prop, though his variance keeps confidence modest.

stocksOVER 1.563%MEDIUM

He averages 1.83 stocks on the season and 2.8 over the last 10, so clearing 1.5 is plausible. The recent defensive activity is strong enough to support the over, but the combined category adds volatility.

prUNDER 36.572%HIGH

His season points plus rebounds baseline is 29.5 using 19.8 points and 9.7 rebounds, which is well below 36.5. Even with the scoring spike, this combo line is stretched far beyond his normal production.

raUNDER 13.564%MEDIUM

Bam’s rebounds plus assists season baseline is 12.6 from 9.7 rebounds and 2.9 assists. He can reach it, but the line is still above his typical mean and combo props carry extra variance.

timelineUNDER 30.5 PTS