AI Model:

Marcus Smart▲

LAL · PF

PPG

9.5

RPG

2.8

APG

2.8

L5 PPG

10.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+0.5

9.5

10.0

RPG-0.6

2.8

2.2

APG-0.4

2.8

2.4

SPG+0.8

1.4

2.2

BPG-0.2

0.4

0.2

UNDER 12.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

12.5

GSW

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs GSW: 8 pts

SAC

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs SAC: 9 pts

NOP

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs NOP: 10 pts

DEN

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs DEN: 9 pts

IND

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs IND: 11 pts

NYK

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs NYK: 5 pts

MIN

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MIN: 8 pts

DEN

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs DEN: 21 pts

HOU

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs HOU: 11 pts

HOU

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs HOU: 5 pts

Over 12.5

Under 12.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 12.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

REB

UNDER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

70%

AST

UNDER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

79%

3PM

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

62%

STL

OVER 1.5

66%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

74%

STL+BLK

UNDER 3

57%

UNDER 2

73%

P+A

UNDER 13.5STAKE

69%

P+R

UNDER 12.5STAKE

71%

UNDER 0.5

88%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

9.5

8.4

RPG

2.5

1.9

APG

3.3

2.1

vs MIA (H2H)13 games

PPG

10.8

RPG

3.2

APG

5.2

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jamal Murray	3	17	94%	+26.8%	medium
James Harden	3	14	60%	+10.1%	medium
Kevin Durant	3	13	94%	+37.9%	medium
Ja Morant	2	12	33%

Smart’s defense-driven profile leans lower on scoring, with upside in stocks and threes

Marcus Smart is producing 9.5 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 2.8 assists on the season, with recent scoring staying close to that baseline at 9.7 over the last 10 and 10.0 over the last 5. His minutes have ticked up to 31.0 in the last 10 and 33.0 in the last 5, but his shooting volume and rebound base still leave his counting stats fairly modest. The matchup context is mixed: the opponent has a 116.74 defensive rating and 100 pace, while Smart’s away splits are weaker than his home production, especially in stocks. With the Lakers on a back-to-back, his playmaking upside is intact, but the value profile is still stronger on selective unders than on the main scoring combo props.

Stat Trends

PPG

10.0(↑ from 9.5)

RPG

2.2(↓ from 2.8)

APG

2.4(↓ from 2.8)

SPG

2.2(↑ from 1.4)

3PM

2.0(↑ from 1.6)

Key Matchup

The opponent’s defense is listed at a 116.74 defensive rating with a 100 pace, which suggests a controlled environment rather than a track meet. There is no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed defenders, so no individual matchup can be singled out.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Marcus Smart▼	Points	12.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	90%	13	✗
Marcus Smart▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	2/2	90%	2	✓
Marcus Smart▼	Assists	4.5	UNDER	79%HIGH	2/2	90%	4	✓
Marcus Smart▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	1	✗
Marcus Smart▼	Steals	1.5	OVER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	2	✓
Marcus Smart▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	—	80%	0	✓
Marcus Smart▼	STL+BLK	3	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	—	70%	2	✓
Marcus Smart▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	73%HIGH	—	90%	2	✗
Marcus Smart▼	P+A	13.5	UNDER	69%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	17	✗
Marcus Smart▼	P+R	12.5	UNDER	71%HIGH	2/2	60%	15	✗
Marcus Smart▼	Double-Double	0.5	UNDER	88%HIGH	—	—	—	—

ML Scout Analysis

P+R11.5UNDER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (13/20)9/2045%▼

P+A12UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)8/2040%▼

R+A5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)11/2055%▼

Featured Pick

Marcus Smart

Assists UNDER 4.5HIGH

This is the cleanest edge in the profile: his season assist mean is 2.8 and the value data explicitly shows the under as the best side with a 0.158 edge. Even with recent minutes at 31.0, his assist production has stayed anchored near his season average, making 4.5 a strong under.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Norman Powell	1	4	9	67%	67%
Tyler Herro	1	3	2	25%	25%
Davion Mitchell	2	3	10	80%	100%
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	1	3	4	67%	67%
Andrew Wiggins	1	2	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 12.568%MEDIUM

His season mean is 9.5 points and his last 10 is 9.7, both below 12.5. He has not shown enough scoring baseline to justify the over, especially with recent games of 5, 11, 21, 8, and 5.

reboundsUNDER 3.570%HIGH

He averages 2.8 rebounds on the season and 2.6 over the last 10, so 3.5 is above his normal range. Even with 31.0 minutes in the last 10, his rebound rate remains modest.

assistsUNDER 4.579%HIGH

His season mean is 2.8 assists and the value data flags the under with a 0.158 edge at this number. He has only topped this mark occasionally, and the recent mean is still just 2.8.

threesOVER 1.562%MEDIUM

He averages 1.65 made threes on the season and 2.3 over the last 10, so 1.5 is a reachable number. The value data also shows a positive edge on the over at this line.

stealsOVER 1.566%MEDIUM

His season steals average is 1.4, but the last 5 is 2.2 and the last 10 is 2.3, showing strong recent defensive activity. Given his stocks production and recent minutes, the over is live despite the variance.

blocksUNDER 0.574%HIGH

He averages 0.4 blocks on the season and only 0.2 over the last 5. This is a low-frequency stat for him, so the under is the safer side.

stocksUNDER 357%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.77, but recent form is elevated at 2.7 over the last 10. Because this combo prop is high-variance and the line is likely above his season norm, the under is still the lean.

turnoversUNDER 273%HIGH

His recent turnover rates are low at 0.9 over the last 10 and 0.4 over the last 5. That profile supports the under if the line lands near a standard projection around 2.0.

paUNDER 13.569%MEDIUM

His season points plus assists profile is only 12.3 using 9.5 points and 2.8 assists. The 13.5 line sits above both his season and recent combined averages.

prUNDER 12.571%HIGH

He averages 12.3 points plus rebounds on the season, and his recent numbers are not materially higher. That makes 12.5 a small but real fade candidate.

double_doubleUNDER 0.588%HIGH

His season averages in points, rebounds, and assists do not point to frequent double-double potential. With no category near double digits, the under is the clear side.

timelineUNDER 12.5 PTS