Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray | 3 | 17 | 94% | +26.8% | medium |
| James Harden | 3 | 14 | 60% | +10.1% | medium |
| Kevin Durant | 3 | 13 | 94% | +37.9% | medium |
| Ja Morant | 2 | 12 | 33% |
Marcus Smart is producing 9.5 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 2.8 assists on the season, with recent scoring staying close to that baseline at 9.7 over the last 10 and 10.0 over the last 5. His minutes have ticked up to 31.0 in the last 10 and 33.0 in the last 5, but his shooting volume and rebound base still leave his counting stats fairly modest. The matchup context is mixed: the opponent has a 116.74 defensive rating and 100 pace, while Smart’s away splits are weaker than his home production, especially in stocks. With the Lakers on a back-to-back, his playmaking upside is intact, but the value profile is still stronger on selective unders than on the main scoring combo props.
The opponent’s defense is listed at a 116.74 defensive rating with a 100 pace, which suggests a controlled environment rather than a track meet. There is no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed defenders, so no individual matchup can be singled out.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Marcus Smart▼ | Points | 12.5 | UNDER | 68%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 90% | 13 | ✗ |
Marcus Smart▼ | Rebounds | 3.5 | UNDER | 70%HIGH | 2/2 | 90% | 2 | ✓ |
Marcus Smart▼ | Assists | 4.5 | UNDER | 79%HIGH | 2/2 | 90% | 4 | ✓ |
Marcus Smart▼ | 3PM | 1.5 | OVER | 62%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 70% | 1 | ✗ |
Marcus Smart▼ | Steals | 1.5 | OVER | 66%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 70% | 2 | ✓ |
Marcus Smart▼ | Blocks | 0.5 | UNDER | 74%HIGH | — | 80% | 0 | ✓ |
Marcus Smart▼ | STL+BLK | 3 | UNDER | 57%MEDIUM | — | 70% | 2 | ✓ |
Marcus Smart▼ | Turnovers | 2 | UNDER | 73%HIGH | — | 90% | 2 | ✗ |
Marcus Smart▼ | P+A | 13.5 | UNDER | 69%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 70% | 17 | ✗ |
Marcus Smart▼ | P+R | 12.5 | UNDER | 71%HIGH | 2/2 | 60% | 15 | ✗ |
Marcus Smart▼ | Double-Double | 0.5 | UNDER | 88%HIGH | — | — | — | — |
This is the cleanest edge in the profile: his season assist mean is 2.8 and the value data explicitly shows the under as the best side with a 0.158 edge. Even with recent minutes at 31.0, his assist production has stayed anchored near his season average, making 4.5 a strong under.
| low |
| Zach LaVine | 2 | 10 | 0% | -39.9% | low |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norman Powell | 1 | 4 | 9 | 67% | 67% |
| Tyler Herro | 1 | 3 | 2 | 25% | 25% |
| Davion Mitchell | 2 | 3 | 10 | 80% | 100% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 1 | 3 | 4 | 67% | 67% |
| Andrew Wiggins | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
His season mean is 9.5 points and his last 10 is 9.7, both below 12.5. He has not shown enough scoring baseline to justify the over, especially with recent games of 5, 11, 21, 8, and 5.
He averages 2.8 rebounds on the season and 2.6 over the last 10, so 3.5 is above his normal range. Even with 31.0 minutes in the last 10, his rebound rate remains modest.
His season mean is 2.8 assists and the value data flags the under with a 0.158 edge at this number. He has only topped this mark occasionally, and the recent mean is still just 2.8.
He averages 1.65 made threes on the season and 2.3 over the last 10, so 1.5 is a reachable number. The value data also shows a positive edge on the over at this line.
His season steals average is 1.4, but the last 5 is 2.2 and the last 10 is 2.3, showing strong recent defensive activity. Given his stocks production and recent minutes, the over is live despite the variance.
He averages 0.4 blocks on the season and only 0.2 over the last 5. This is a low-frequency stat for him, so the under is the safer side.
His season stocks average is 1.77, but recent form is elevated at 2.7 over the last 10. Because this combo prop is high-variance and the line is likely above his season norm, the under is still the lean.
His recent turnover rates are low at 0.9 over the last 10 and 0.4 over the last 5. That profile supports the under if the line lands near a standard projection around 2.0.
His season points plus assists profile is only 12.3 using 9.5 points and 2.8 assists. The 13.5 line sits above both his season and recent combined averages.
He averages 12.3 points plus rebounds on the season, and his recent numbers are not materially higher. That makes 12.5 a small but real fade candidate.
His season averages in points, rebounds, and assists do not point to frequent double-double potential. With no category near double digits, the under is the clear side.