AI Model:

Collin Gillespie—

PHX · PG

PPG

13.1

RPG

4.2

APG

4.8

L5 PPG

6.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-6.9

13.1

6.2

RPG+1.0

4.2

5.2

APG0.0

4.8

SPG+0.1

1.3

1.4

BPG0.0

0.2

UNDER 25.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

25.5

LAL

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs LAL: 21 pts

SAC

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs SAC: 17 pts

CHI

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs CHI: 5 pts

NOP

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs NOP: 12 pts

CHA

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs CHA: 24 pts

MIL

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MIL: 12 pts

IND

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs IND: 4 pts

TOR

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs TOR: 0 pts

BOS

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs BOS: 3 pts

MIN

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs MIN: 12 pts

Over 25.5

Under 25.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 25.5DRAFTKINGS

88%

AST

OVER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

REB

OVER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

74%

3PM

UNDER 5.5FANDUEL

82%

STL

UNDER 1.5STAKE

69%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

86%

STL+BLK

UNDER 2.5

68%

UNDER 2

60%

PRA

UNDER 25.5

67%

P+A

UNDER 17.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

12.8

10.8

RPG

4.2

4.6

APG

4.1

6.4

vs SAS (H2H)5 games

PPG

10.2

RPG

2.8

APG

4.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Russell Westbrook	4	14	56%	+8.0%	medium
Donte DiVincenzo	3	12	30%	-22.0%	medium
Cason Wallace	4	10	100%	+58.0%	medium
Julian Champagnie	4	10	30%

Gillespie’s minutes are solid, but scoring upside looks capped

Collin Gillespie is playing steady minutes, with 28.8 MPG on the season and 30.0 MPG over his last 10, but his recent scoring has cooled to 6.2 PPG over the last 5 and 11.0 PPG over the last 10 versus a 13.1 season average. His assist and rebound production remains usable, especially with 4.8 APG season-long and 5.1 APG over the last 10, while his 3-point volume stays meaningful at 3.0 makes per game on the season. The opponent context is not especially supportive for scoring, and his 5-game history vs this opponent is just 10.2 PPG in 21.2 MPG. Given the recent dip and the available lines, the cleaner angle leans away from points overs and toward more modest role-based production.

Stat Trends

PPG

6.2(↓ from 13.1)

APG

4.8(→ from 4.8)

RPG

5.2(↑ from 4.2)

3PM

1.6(↓ from 3.0)

Key Matchup

The opponent defense data shows a 111.76 defensive rating, pace of 100, scoring_suppression of -0.821, and three_suppression of -0.419. The available defender data is not enough to identify a specific matchup impact, so there is no specific defender matchup data.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Collin Gillespie▼	Points	25.5	UNDER	88%HIGH	2/2	100%	24	✓
Collin Gillespie▼	Assists	4.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	6	✓
Collin Gillespie▼	Rebounds	3.5	OVER	74%HIGH	1/2	60%	2	✗
Collin Gillespie▼	3PM	5.5	UNDER	82%HIGH	2/2	90%	6	✗
Collin Gillespie▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	69%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	2	✗
Collin Gillespie▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	86%HIGH	—	80%	0	✓
Collin Gillespie▼	STL+BLK	2.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	—	100%	2	✓
Collin Gillespie▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	—	100%	1	✓
Collin Gillespie▼	PRA	25.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	32	✗
Collin Gillespie▼	P+A	17.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	30	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS9.5OVER19%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x13/2065%+12.2% edgePrediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted +0.304▼

AST3.5UNDER7%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x11/2055%▼

PRA16.5UNDER16%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x11/2055%▼

3PM2.5UNDER14%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (10/20)12/2060%▼

R+A9UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%▼

P+R15.5OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 3x11/2055%▼

P+A16.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 3x11/2055%▼

REB3.5UNDER42%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 3x9/2045%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

Featured Pick

Collin Gillespie

Points UNDER 25.5HIGH

This line is far above his season scoring baseline of 13.1 PPG and also well above his 11.0 PPG over the last 10. His last-5 at 6.2 PPG and 10.2 PPG in 5 games vs this opponent both point to a clear under profile.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Julian Champagnie	4	10	6	20%	30%
De'Aaron Fox	3	6	9	43%	50%
Devin Vassell	4	4	2	20%	20%
Keldon Johnson	4	4	7	50%	58%
Dylan Harper	3	3	5	50%	63%

pointsUNDER 25.588%HIGH

Season scoring is 13.1 PPG and the last-10 is 11.0, both well below 25.5. His last-5 is only 6.2 PPG, and his head-to-head mark vs this opponent is 10.2 PPG in 5 games.

assistsOVER 4.563%MEDIUM

He averages 4.8 APG on the season and 5.1 APG over the last 10, so 4.5 is a reachable number. The away split is stronger at 6.4 APG, which supports the over more than his home split.

reboundsOVER 3.574%HIGH

He averages 4.2 RPG on the season and 4.7 RPG over the last 10, both above 3.5. The value data also shows strong support at this level, with a 0.66 our-probability for the over and a 14.8% edge at DraftKings.

threesUNDER 5.582%HIGH

He averages 3.0 made threes per game on the season, far below 5.5. Even with a healthy recent volume profile, the line is too ambitious relative to his season baseline and his 5-game head-to-head scoring output.

stealsUNDER 1.569%MEDIUM

He averages 1.3 steals per game on the season and 0.9 over the last 10, so 1.5 is a tough ask. The recent trend has not been strong enough to justify an over lean at this number.

blocksUNDER 0.586%HIGH

He averages only 0.2 blocks per game on the season, so 0.5 is above his typical output. This is the most straightforward under on the board from a volume standpoint.

stocksUNDER 2.568%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.5, and recent stocks are 1.1 over the last 10. A 2.5 line would require an above-average defensive game that is not supported by the recent trend.

turnoversUNDER 260%MEDIUM

He averages 1.4 turnovers over the last 20 and 1.2 over the last 10, which sits below a 2.0 projected line. His recent games also include several low-turnover outings.

praUNDER 25.567%MEDIUM

Using his season averages, 13.1 points + 4.2 rebounds + 4.8 assists equals 22.1 PRA, below 25.5. Combo props carry extra variance, and his last-5 scoring dip adds more downside risk.

paUNDER 17.558%MEDIUM

His season points plus assists total is 17.9, essentially right around this range, but the recent scoring drop makes the over less appealing. Because combo props are high-variance, the safer lean is under.

timelineUNDER 25.5 PTS