Phoenix Suns vs San Antonio Spurs — Predictions & Player Props

AI Model:

PHX

Phoenix Suns

39-30 | L10: 6-4

SAS

San Antonio Spurs

51-18 | L10: 8-2

2026-03-19

ML Game Intelligence

HIGH

PHX81%

19%SAS

PHX80-103SAS

Key Factors

*Suns without Dillon Brooks (20.9 PPG) - out (Hand)
*Suns without Grayson Allen (17.2 PPG) - questionable (Knee)
*Suns without Royce O'Neale (9.9 PPG) - questionable (Knee)
*Suns without Mark Williams (11.6 PPG) - out (Foot)
*Suns owns the season series 14-6 against Spurs

Key Matchup

Spurs has matchup advantages

SAS Advantages

+ Positional advantages
+ Better roster depth

Key Defensive Matchups

PHX Players

Devin Booker

Julian Champagnie4g · 9m+0.0%17% eFGmedium

Devin Vassell4g · 6m+0.0%50% eFGmedium

Harrison Barnes3g · 6m+0.0%50% eFGmedium

Royce O'Neale

Harrison Barnes3g · 10m+0.0%50% eFGmedium

Victor Wembanyama2g · 7m+0.0%33% eFGlow

San Antonio enters at 51-18 with an 8-2 L10 and a 3-game win streak, while Phoenix is 39-30 and riding a 3-game skid. Both teams are on 2 days rest and not on a back-to-back, so the rotation should be stable, but Phoenix’s key starters are carrying larger offensive loads recently, especially Devin Booker and Jalen Green.

Team Comparison

PHXSAS

Key Players

He is at 24.1 PPG, 11.1 RPG, and 2.9 APG on the season, with 27.8 PPG over his last 5. His matchup history versus Phoenix is 18.333333333333332 PPG and 9.333333333333334 RPG over 6 games, so the scoring ceiling is there, but his recent 27.8 PPG is well above season average and suggests some regression risk on inflated lines.

ProjectedPTS: 17.1-23.7-30.3REB: 7.8-10.8-13.8AST: 0.7-3.1-5.5

Fox is producing 18.8 PPG and 6.3 APG on the season, with 20.4 PPG over his last 5 and 6.8 APG over that span. His recent scoring is above season level, but his assist floor is solid and his matchup history against Phoenix shows 24.105263157894736 PPG and 6.2631578947368425 APG over 19 games.

ProjectedPTS: 11.4-18-24.6REB: 0.8-3.8-6.8AST: 4.1-6.5-8.9

Champagnie sits at 11.1 PPG and 5.8 RPG for the season, but his last 5 scoring is only 8.2 PPG while his rebounds remain at 5.0. His books are shading his points and threes lower than season norms, and his recent minutes are still in the high 20s, which keeps the rebounding angle live more than the scoring angle.

ProjectedPTS: 2.6-9.2-15.8REB: 2.5-5.5-8.5AST: 0-1.3-3.7

Prop Picks

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	Trend	Edge	Actual	Result
Victor Wembanyama▼ SAS	Rebounds	12.5fanduel	UNDER	78%HIGH	70%	+20.1%	12	✓
Devin Booker▼ PHX	Points	22.5draftkings	OVER	66%MEDIUM	80%	+16.4%	22	✗
Devin Booker▼ PHX	3PM	1.5fanduel	OVER	64%MEDIUM	70%	+11.8%	0	✗
De'Aaron Fox▼ SAS	Points	17.5fanduel	OVER	55%LOW	60%	+1.4%	23	✓
Jordan Goodwin▼ PHX	Rebounds	3.5draftkings	OVER	74%HIGH	70%	+14.8%	8	✓

Model Comparison

2 models · 8 props compared

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Props Shown

8 total on slate

Models

1 game view

Unanimous

Full agreement across submitted picks

Featured Picks

Victor Wembanyama

Rebounds UNDER 12.5HIGH

Best numbers on the board: 0.201 edge and 37.12 EV per 100. His season average is 11.08 rebounds, and his last 5 are 10.7, both below 12.5.

Devin Booker

Points OVER 22.5MEDIUM

Booker’s adjusted mean is 26.7 versus a 22.5 line, and the over has a 0.164 edge with 29.99 EV per 100. The main caveat is regression after 35.0 PPG over his last 5.

Jordan Goodwin

Rebounds OVER 3.5HIGH

He owns a 0.148 edge and 28.84 EV per 100, with a season mean of 4.71 rebounds. The line is simply too low relative to his baseline output.

Parlay of the Game

Victor Wembanyama — Rebounds UNDER 12.5Leg 1

Jordan Goodwin — Rebounds OVER 3.5Leg 2

Devin Booker — Points OVER 22.5Leg 3

The Wembanyama under and Goodwin over are both directly supported by strong edge numbers and season-vs-line gaps. Booker’s over adds correlated star-usage exposure in a game where Phoenix has needed heavy shot creation, though his recent surge adds more variance than the other two legs.

Injury & Lineup Notes

Khaman Maluach is marked Available but with Injury/Illness-RightThumb;Sprain, while Mark Williams is Out with Injury/Illness-LeftFootThirdMetatarsal;StressReaction. Injury status is Unknown for Luke Kornet, and if his status changes it could affect the Suns frontcourt rebound distribution.